Milankovitch Cycle Case Study

Milankovitch
Milankovitch Cycle
Cycle Case Case
Study Study

 Milankovitch cycles WHAT YOU WILL LEARN

 Eccentricity
 Obliquity
 Precession
1. You will recognize how Milankovitch Cycles
cause changes in the Earth’s orbit and
orientation.

2. You will recognize that cyclical conditions

cannot explain the persistent change in global
temperature increases.

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Milankovitch Cycle Case Study

Global warming and climate change are international concerns and the sources of much
controversy. Many variables, however, can contribute to the temperature changes
related to global warming. All of these variables must be considered when investigating
this issue. Strong evidence shows an accelerated rise in global temperatures over the
past 30 years. In the media much attention is given to the fact that concentrations of the
greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, is rising. The central cause of this increase is being
blamed on human activity; specifically the burning of fossil fuels. The increase in carbon
dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere is the most-discussed factor in the global warming
controversy. Other factors exist, however, that could be contributing to the increase in
the earth’s atmospheric temperatures. Natural cycles occurring between the Sun and
the Earth play important roles in the heat budget of the earth’s atmosphere. In this case
study you will investigate cycles that scientists often consider when discussing global
warming and climate change issues. The Milankovitch Cycles cause changes in the
earth’s orbit and orientation that occur over time.

1. How might changes in the Earth’s orbit (Milankovitch Cycles) affect the Earth’s
temperature?

2. How might the Milankovitch Cycles explain the recent increase in global
temperature?

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Milankovitch Cycle Case Study

How has global temperature changed over time?

The Earth’s temperature has varied over the past four million years, and that at least 30
glacial periods have occurred. The graph below (Figure 1) shows data from ice core
samples that chronicle the temperature and carbon dioxide levels over the past 400
thousand years. There is a direct correlation between the temperatures and the
occurrence of ice ages. The carbon dioxide levels also correlate to the temperature
which supports the idea that carbon dioxide levels contribute to warmer global
temperatures.

Figure 1. Variations in Temperature and CO2 from the Volstok Ice Core

3. According to the data, how many cooling periods occurred during the past
400,000 years?

In the 1920’s a Serbian scientist by the name of Milutin Milankovitch developed a

theory to explain possible climate changes that could be caused by the Earth’s
changing patterns of orbit and tilt in relationship to the sun. Specifically, he tried to
explain the occurrences of the ice ages. Milankovitch found that the changes in the
Earth’s orbit and tilt occur in cycles over very long periods of time—tens of
thousands of years. These cycles are now known as the Milankovitch Cycles.
Milankovitch’s cycles were based on his mathematical calculations, and presented
as a possible explanation for ice age events. His work was not considered seriously

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Milankovitch Cycle Case Study

until the 1970’s when actual ice core data showed a possible connection between
ice ages and the cycles Milankovitch had suggested. Scientists are now wondering if
the Milankovitch Cycles could help explain the recent rise in the Earth’s
temperatures. Milankovitch studied three aspects of the Earth’s orbit around the
Sun that influences the amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun.

4. What did Milankovitch’s theory originally try to explain?

The Earth’s Tilt (OBLIQUITY)

Seasonal changes are

caused by the tilt of the
Earth (Figure 2). Today,
the Earth’s tilt is about
23.5˚ when compared
against the Earth’s orbit
around the Sun. The
first day of summer for
the northern hemisphere
occurs when the north
pole of the Earth is tilted
at the maximum 23.5˚
toward the Sun. On this
day, the northern
hemisphere receives the
Figure 2. The Seasons on Earth.
maximum amount of the
Source Zoom Astronomy
Sun’s radiant energy.
This day also begins the Figure 2. The Earth’s Seasons
first day of winter for the
southern hemisphere.

5. What causes the seasonal changes that we experience each year?

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The shape of the Earth’s Orbit (ECCENTRICITY)

The orbit of the Earth is not quite circular. The orbit is in the shape of an oval, and this
shape is called an ellipse (Figure 3). This elliptical orbit causes the distance of the
Earth from the Sun to continually change throughout the year. The Earth’s average
distance from the Sun is 93 million miles. At the Earth’s closest point to the Sun, called
the perihelion, the Earth is about 91.5 million miles from the Sun. This occurs in early
January. The Earth reaches its furthest position away from the Sun, called the
aphelion, in early July. At that time the Earth is about 94.5 million miles from the Sun.
Some evidence exists that this elliptical orbit may make the northern seasons less
severe than seasons in the Southern Hemisphere although the difference may be slight.
The Northern Hemisphere has more land mass and therefore a greater chance of
warming no matter the season. This fact may negate any difference in temperature
caused by the Earth’s changing distance from the Sun.

PERIHELION APHELION
Figure 3. The Earth’s Orbit. Source: Zoom Astronomy

The direction of the Earth’s tilt (PRECESSION)

Currently the North Pole is pointing toward the North Star. This situation causes the
Northern Hemisphere to tilt away from the Sun when the Earth is closest to the Sun
(our winter) and tilt toward the Sun when the Earth is furthest from the Sun (our
summer).

6. During which Northern Hemisphere season is the Earth actually closest to the
Sun?

If these conditions of orbit and tilt continue as they now are set in a yearly repetition,
then no change should be expected in the amount of solar heating taking place on
Earth. The yearly cycle of solar heating should always continue to have the same
effect on the Earth’s atmospheric temperature. The Earth, however, does not follow
the same pattern of orbit and tilt in relationship to the Sun over great expanses of
time.

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How might the Milankovitch Cycles be influencing present day global

temperatures?

ECCENTRICITY

Milankovitch’s first cycle has to do with eccentricity. Eccentricity is a measure of

how much the ellipse of the Earth’s orbit differs from a circle (Figure 4). The ellipse
on the left is almost a circle. The ellipse on the right is more like an oval, therefore
more eccentric than the ellipse on the left.

Figure 4. Different Earth Orbits.

If the Earth made a perfect circle around the Sun, it would be 93 million miles from
the Sun all year around. However, because the Earth’s orbit is an ellipse, the Earth
travels closer and farther from the Sun at different times. Presently, the Earth’s
elliptical orbit varies from a circular shape by 3-million miles in distance from the Sun
over a year’s period of time. At an average distance of 93 million miles, this change
is only about a 3% change. This amount of change does not seem too significant
and it does not seem to cause temperature changes for the Earth. A more circular
orbit will create less severe seasons and therefore less seasonal change. But, as
Milankovitch discovered the shape of the ellipse changes and becomes more
eccentric. This change could cause the Earth to be very much further away from the
Sun at aphelion than the present day situation, and this large change in distance
from the Sun could cause more severe seasons. Cooler summers could allow the
buildup of snow and ice fields similar to the glacial period of the ice age. This cycle
is estimated to repeat every 100,000 years.

7. How could a change in the earth’s orbital eccentricity effect climate on the Earth?

8. How long does it take for this cycle to repeat?

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Milankovitch Cycle Case Study

OBLIQUITY

The second cycle

Milankovitch
proposed is referred
to as obliquity, or the
tilt of the Earth in
relationship to the
Sun. At present the
tilt of the Earth is
23.5º in respect to the
orbit around the Sun.
This tilt is responsible
for the changing
seasons and their
difference in
temperature (Figure
5). Also, the degree
of tilt changes over
time. Over a 40,000
year period of time, the Figure 5. The Relationship between the Earth’s
obliquity or tilt of the earth Tilt and Orbit. Source: NASA
changes from a minimum of
22.1º to a maximum of 24.5 º.
This change in tilt happens very slowly, but it could cause the seasons to be more
severe during maximum tilt and less severe at minimum tilt. When the Earth is only
tilted 22.1º, the summers and winters could be less severe. During such cooler
summers, scientists speculate that winter snow and ice in the northern latitudes
might not melt from year to year. In addition, the build up of snow and ice fields
could cause sun’s energy to be reflected back into space. This additional cooling
could cause the build-up of glaciers and the potential for an ice age.

9. Will more tilt or less tilt cause more severe seasons?

10. How long does it take for the Earth to change from the maximum tilt to the
minimum tilt?

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Milankovitch Cycle Case Study

PRECESSION

The third Milankovitch cycle deals with a process called precession (Figure 6).
Currently, the Earth’s axis is oriented so that it nearly intersects the star Polaris (the
North Star), almost directly over the North Pole. However, this position of the
Earth’s axis is only accurate for the present time. Four thousand years ago, when
the pyramids in Egypt were being built, the axis of the earth was oriented to the star
Thuban, a star in the Draco Constellation. In other words, the Earth’s tilt has shifted
over time. This shift in the Earth’s orientation is called precession. A similar
movement can be observed as a top spins. The North Pole will draw a circle in the
sky which will be completed in a 26,000 year cycle. So, 26,000 years from now,
Polaris will once again be the North Star.
Today, the earth is nearest
to the Sun (perihelion)
during our winter and
farthest away during our
summer. This position of
precession would be
expected to cause less
severe seasons—and that
is what we may be
experiencing now as the
winters are warmer, and the
summers are not markedly
hotter. In about twelve
thousand years, the
precession cycle will move
the Earth’s perihelion so
that it will occur during our
summer. Therefore, in
twelve thousand years, the
earth will be nearest to the
Sun during our summer and
farthest away during our
winter. This precession
position is expected to
cause greater severity in the
seasons.

Figure 6. Precession of the Earth’s Tilt.

Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

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11. What process might bring the Earth closer to the Sun during our summer?

12. How long does it take for precession to complete one cycle?

How do these Milankovitch Cycles combine to affect climate?

Scientists speculate that the most likely scenario for a Northern Hemisphere ice age
would be a combination of all three factors: a nearly circular shape of the Earth’s orbit
(minimum eccentricity), a minimum of 22.1º in the Earth’s tilt (minimum obliquity), and a
northern-hemisphere winter occurrence of the Earth’s perihelion (precession).
According to Milankovitch’s theory, all of these factors combined would cause the four
seasons to be less different from each other. The resulting seasonal temperature
changes, even though very small, could allow northern areas to accumulate snow and
ice and to form glaciers.

Scientists generally think that these cycles must favorably combine to produce either a
cooling trend or a warming trend. At present, the earth’s precession is such that
perihelion occurs during our winter and scientists expect cooling to occur and the onset
of a new ice age, but, the eccentricity and the obliquity of the Earth’s orbit are not
favorable for ice age conditions. Thus at the present, the cycles do not appear to be
favorably combined to create either situation. At present, the Milankovitch Cycles
cannot explain the current increase in global temperature.

13. Could the Milankovitch Cycles help explain the recent rise in temperatures here
on Earth? Why or why not?

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Conclusion

Climate and seasons on the Earth are primarily a function of how much solar radiation is
absorbed and retained by the Earth. Many factors help determine exactly how solar
radiation effects climate. Seasons are determined by the position of the Earth in
respect to the orbit and the tilt of the Earth. The distance of the Earth from the Sun is
also important. When the Earth is closer, the increased radiant energy will affect our
climate. These factors also change over time within reoccurring cycles.

A correlation has been shown between the Milankovitch Cycles and the occurrence of
ice ages. Using the Milankovitch Cycles of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, ice
ages should occur when all three of these factors encourage less severe seasons on
Earth. At present, only one cycle, precession, is encouraging less severe seasons. The
current precession of the Earth places it closest to the Sun during our winter and
farthest away during our summer. This should make Northern Hemisphere seasons
less severe, but conversely, Southern Hemisphere seasons more severe. The obliquity,
or tilt, of the earth is, at present however, at neither extreme. The 23.5º of tilt at present
is midway between the extremes of 22.1º and 24.5º. The eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit
is also not at an extreme. These cycles also repeat over periods that are 10’s of
thousands of years long. At present, the Milankovitch Cycles cannot explain the
current increase in
global temperature.

If temperatures are
consistently rising with
some variations
occurring due to other
cycles and events, then
factors that persist
need to be considered
as serious factors.
Greenhouse gasses,
especially carbon
dioxide, have been
shown to be steadily
rising as is shown by
the graph below (Figure
7). This persistent,
steady rise could
explain the observed
recent temperature Figure 7. Atmospheric CO2 levels. Source: NOAA.
increase.

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Reflect on What You Have Learned

14. How might changes in the Earth’s orbit (Milankovitch Cycle) affect the Earth’s
temperature?

15. How might the Milankovitch Cycle explain the recent increase in global
temperature?

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