TCB#12 Nika

MMSS-04 Rev.
1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

Typhoon NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 11 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“NIKA” FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE BOUNDARY OF ISABELA AND AURORA.
Location of Center (7:00 AM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon NIKA was estimated based on

all available data including Baler and Daet Weather Radars over
the coastal waters of Dilasag, Aurora (16.4°N, 122.5°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 180 km/h, and central pressure of 965 hPa
Present Movement
West northwestward at 15 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 340 km
from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 17.2 120.7 In the vicinity of Tubo, Abra 110 STS WNW 20
11 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 18.2 118.8 185 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte 100 STS WNW 20
12 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
420 km West of Calayan, Cagayan
5:00 PM 19.0 117.5 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
12 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 19.6 116.2 85 TS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
13 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 20.1 115.0 75 TS WNW 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
13 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
870 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon
5:00 AM 20.5 113.5 65 TS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
14 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 20.2 112.3 45 TD WSW Slowly
(OUTSIDE PAR)
15 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 19.8 111.6 - LOW WSW Slowly
(OUTSIDE PAR)
16 November 2024
Page 1 of 4
Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: SFD
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

The northernmost portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran), the central and
southern portions of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Jones,
Echague, Ramon, San Isidro, City of Santiago, Cordon, Roxas, Burgos, Reina
Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, Gamu, San Manuel, Aurora, San Mateo,
Cabatuan, Alicia, Luna, City of Cauayan, Angadanan, Quezon, Mallig, Quirino,
Ilagan City, Delfin Albano, San Agustin), Kalinga, Mountain Province, the
northern portion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Alfonso Lista, Banaue,
Hungduan, Hingyon, Lagawe), the central and southern portion of Abra
4 (Manabo, Pidigan, San Juan, Tayum, Langiden, Luba, Boliney, Sallapadan,
Bucloc, Lagangilang, Tubo, Danglas, Villaviciosa, La Paz, Licuan-Baay, Pilar,
- -
Wind threat: Malibcong, Pe, San Isidro, Daguioman, San Quintin, Dolores, Lagayan,
Typhoon- Bangued, Bucay, Lacub), and the northern and central portions of Ilocos Sur
force winds (Cabugao, Sinait, San Juan, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Banayoyo, Santiago, San
Esteban, Burgos, Santa Maria, Magsingal, San Vicente, Santa Catalina,
Nagbukel, San Ildefonso, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa, Bantay, Santo
Domingo, Narvacan, Quirino, Cervantes, Sigay, Salcedo, Santa Lucia, City of
Candon, Galimuyod, Gregorio del Pilar, Santa Cruz)
Warning lead time: 12 hours
Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
The central portion of Aurora (Dinalungan), the northern portion of Quirino

(Diffun, Cabarroguis, Aglipay, Saguday, Maddela), the northeastern portion of
Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Quezon, Solano, Villaverde, Kasibu,
Ambaguio, Bayombong), the rest of Isabela, the southwestern portion of
3 Cagayan (Enrile, Solana, Tuao, Tuguegarao City, Rizal, Piat), the southern
portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao), the rest of Abra, the rest of Ifugao,
- -
Wind threat: the northern portion of Benguet (Buguias, Mankayan, Bakun), the southern
Storm-force portion of Ilocos Norte (Laoag City, Sarrat, San Nicolas, Piddig, Marcos, Nueva
winds Era, Dingras, Bacarra, Solsona, Paoay, Currimao, Pinili, Badoc, City of Batac,
Banna), and the rest of Ilocos Sur

Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
the northwestern and eastern portions of Cagayan (Iguig, Peñablanca,

Baggao, Alcala, Amulung, Santo Niño, Gattaran, Lasam, Santa Praxedes,
Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Allacapan, Ballesteros, Lal-Lo,
Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga), the rest of Nueva
2 Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Apayao, the rest of Benguet, the
rest of Ilocos Norte, La Union, the northeastern portion of Pangasinan (San
- -
Wind threat: Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Sison, San Manuel, Umingan, Tayug), the
Gale-force central portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler), and the northern
winds portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Lupao, San Jose City)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Page 2 of 4
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Weather Division

Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Pangasinan, the
rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, the
northern and central portions of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc,
Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso),
Metro Manila, Rizal, the eastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac,
1 Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa
Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Pila), the northern and eastern portions of
- -
Wind threat: Quezon (Infanta, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Mauban, Perez, Real, General
Strong Nakar, Calauag) including Pollilo Islands, and the northwestern portion of
winds Camarines Norte (Capalonga, Santa Elena, Vinzons, Labo, Paracale, San
Vicente, Talisay, Daet, Jose Panganiban)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 12 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone
“NIKA”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.
 Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
 Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
 Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in
coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
 Today (11 November): Batanes, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Sur, and
Catanduanes
 Tomorrow (12 November): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Batanes, and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge that may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities
of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon
including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 7
issued at 8:00 AM today.
Page 3 of 4
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Weather Division

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Luzon and the northern and western seaboards of Northern
Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 3 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
 Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
 Up to 5.0 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur
 Up to 4.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Camarines Norte, the northern
seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
 Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of Babuyan Islands; the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
 Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region
 Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon; the remaining seaboard of Polillo Islands; the eastern seaboard
of Catanduanes
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these
conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
 Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Zambales; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon
 Up to 2.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the
seaboard of Kalayaan Islands.
 Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while
venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
 NIKA is forecast to move generally west northwestward until Thursday (14 November) before turning generally
southwestward on Friday (15 November) onwards. On the track forecast, NIKA may make landfall over Isabela or northern
Aurora this morning. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and
coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. The tropical
cyclone will then traverse the landmass of mainland Luzon today and emerge over the sea west of Ilocos Sur this evening.
Afterwards, NIKA will continue to move west northwestward over West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of
Responsibility by tomorrow (12 November) morning or afternoon.
 This tropical cyclone may weaken into a severe tropical storm while traversing mainland Luzon due to land interaction. A
generally weakening trend may then be expected for this tropical cyclone until it becomes a remnant low over the sea near
southern China.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
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MMSS-04 Rev.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

“NIKA” FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE BOUNDARY OF ISABELA AND AURORA.

Location of Center (7:00 AM)

The center of the eye of Typhoon NIKA was estimated based on

Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center,

West northwestward at 15 km/h

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: SFD

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

The central portion of Aurora (Dinalungan), the northern portion of Quirino

Warning lead time: 18 hours

the northwestern and eastern portions of Cagayan (Iguig, Peñablanca,

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: SFD

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: SFD

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: SFD

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

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