TCB#12 Ofel

MMSS-04 Rev.
1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

Typhoon OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 14 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
TYPHOON “OFEL” INTENSIFIES INTO A SUPER TYPHOON AS IT UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
Location of Center (7:00 AM)

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon OFEL was estimated
based on all available data including those from Baler and
Daet Weather Surveillance Radars at 165 km East Northeast
of Echague, Isabela or 165 km East Southeast of
Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.1°N, 123.2°E).
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 935 hPa
Present Movement
Northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 320
km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 18.4 122.0 Over the coastal waters of Gonzaga, Cagayan 175 TY NW 20
14 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 20.0 121.0 95 km North Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan 155 TY NNW 15
15 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 21.5 120.9 125 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes 140 TY N 15
15 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 22.9 121.5 240 km North of Itbayat, Batanes 130 TY NNE15
16 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 23.9 122.9 365 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes 120 TY NE 15
16 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 24.4 123.9 455 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes 95 STS ENE 10
17 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 24.1 124.7 470 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes 55 TD ESE Slowly
18 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 23.6 124.3 405 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes - LOW SW Slowly
19 November 2024
Page 1 of 4
Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: CFP
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao
5 The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
Warning lead time: 12 hours

- -
Wind threat:
Typhoon- Range of wind speeds: 185 km/h (Beaufort 12)
Potential impacts of winds: Extreme threat to life and property
force winds
The southeastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Is.), the northern and
4 eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri,

Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca) and
the northeastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
Wind threat:
Typhoon- Warning lead time: 12 hours
force winds Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
The rest of Babuyan Islands, the rest of Cagayan, the northern, central, and
southeastern portions of Isabela (San Pablo, Delfin Albano, Ilagan City,
Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, San Mariano, Dinapigue), the
3 northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan,
Kabugao), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams,
- -
Wind threat: Dumalneg)

Storm-force
winds
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Batanes, the western and southern portions of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino,
Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Naguilian,
Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, Angadanan, Alicia, San Guillermo,
Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Mateo, San Isidro), the northeastern portion
2 of Quirino (Maddela), the rest of Apayao, Kalinga, the northeastern portion of
Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay,
- -
Wind threat: Daguioman), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis), the eastern
Gale-force portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista), the rest of Ilocos Norte, and the northern
winds portion of Aurora (Dilasag)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
The rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain
Province, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Abra, the northern portion of Benguet
(Bokod, Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias,
1 Tublay), Ilocos Sur, the northern portion of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar,
Santol, San Gabriel, Bagulin, Bacnotan, Balaoan, San Juan), and the northern
- -
Wind threat: and central portions of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria
Strong Aurora, Baler, San Luis)
winds
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Page 2 of 4
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Weather Division

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 29 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “OFEL”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.
 Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.
 Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
 Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
 Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m in the next 48 hours
over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela,
and northern Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of
Central Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 3 issued at 5:00 AM today for more details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
 Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela
 Up to 7.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes
 Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the seaboard of northern Quezon; the northern and eastern seaboard of
Polillo Islands; the western seaboard of Ilocos Norte
 Up to 3.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the seaboards of Camarines Norte; the northern
seaboard of Camarines Sur
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these
conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 2.5 m: The eastern seaboard of Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands; the eastern seaboards of Albay and
Sorsogon
 Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; the remaining seaboards of Catanduanes and Camarines Sur; the
northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to
sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
Page 3 of 4
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Weather Division

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
 OFEL is forecast to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan
or northern Isabela this afternoon. It will then emerge over Babuyan Channel tonight while making another landfall or passing
close to Babuyan Islands. OFEL will then turn north northwestward to north northeastward over the sea west of Batanes by
tomorrow (November 15) before turning northeastward beginning Saturday (16 November) over the sea east of Taiwan towards
Ryukyu Islands by the remaining forecast period.
 Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may
still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may
still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
 OFEL may possibly make landfall as a super typhoon. A weakening trend may ensue once OFEL approaches Taiwan until
it weakens into a remnant Low over Ryukyu Islands by Monday or Tuesday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
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MMSS-04 Rev.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

TYPHOON “OFEL” INTENSIFIES INTO A SUPER TYPHOON AS IT UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

Location of Center (7:00 AM)

Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center,

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

5 The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)

Warning lead time: 12 hours

4 eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri,

Wind threat: Dumalneg)

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 12

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.

Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

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