ADM For Commercial Pilots
ADM For Commercial Pilots
ADM For Commercial Pilots
Richard S. Jensen
Janeen Adrion
Prepared for:
Systems Control Technology, Inc.
161 1 North Kent Street, Suite 910
Arlington, Virginia 22209
By:
Aviation Research Associates
4351 Brauton Road
Columbus, Ohio 43220
July 1988
Final Report
US.Department of Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration
Technical Report Documentation Page
1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.
DOTIFAAIPM-86/42
I
16. Abstract
Aviation accident data indicate that the mapriiy of aircraft mishaps are due to judgement error. This training
manual is part of a project to develop materials and techniques to help improve pilot decision making.
Training programs using prototype versions of these materials have demonstrated substantial reductions
in pilot error rates. The result of such tests were statistically significant and ranged from approximately 10%
to 50% fewer mistakes.
This manual is designed to explain the risks associated with commercial flying activities, the underlying
behavioral causes of typical accidents, and the effects of stress on pilot decision making. It provides
a means for the individual pilot to develop an "Attitude Profile" through a self-assessment inventory and
provides detailed explanations of pre-flight and in-flight stress management techniques. The assumption is
that pilots receiving this training will develop a positive attitude toward safety and the ability to effectively
manage stress while recognizing and avoiding unnecessary risk.
This manual is one of a series on Aeronautical Decision Making prepared for the following pilot audiences:
(1) Student and Private (2) Commercial (3) Instrument (4) Instructor (5) Helicopter (6) Multi-Crew
The term "pilot error" is often used to describe an accident cause and
is an oversimplification, implying that the pilot intended to have an
accident. Pilots usually intend to fly safely, but they sometimes make
decisional errors. Their skill or luck is often sufficient to get them
out of situations resulting from poor judgment. The objective of this
manual is to teach commercial pilots the techniques to avoid situations
that require luck or skill greater than their capabilities. Good judgment
means avoiding situations that require superior skill to overcome.
FOREWORD
Chapter 10 . INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
iii
Chapter 10: INTRODUCTION
Judgment Definition
Where :
Motivations give us reasons for flying. Without them flight would not
be possible. Good judgment, on the other hand, requires the proper
development of attitudes, recognizing that they can inhibit or override
the intellectual component of judgment. Controlling such interference
requires the development of personal leadership styles that can overcome
influences and related pressures that lead to bad decisions.
The Wright brothers owe a great deal of their success to the fact that
they exercised good judgment at a time when many of their colleagues were
killing themselves by considering flight to be no more than a thrill or
adventure. Wilbur Wright remarked in 1901 that "Carelessness and
overconfidence are usually more dangerous than deliberately accepted
risks." The Wright brothers both knew and res~ectedthe risks involved in
flying. These are the two keys to good judgment.
A Note to Management
-
-
Service industries are the toughest of all businesses to operate.
Aviation is probably the most difficult of all service industries. The
difficulty is centered in the often conflicting requirements to maintain a
viable corporation, earn a living, keep the employees happy, satisfy the
requirements of all the government agencies (FAA, State, Airport
Authority, etc.), and serve the customers. Serving the customer is the
name of the game and management is often the buffer between all of the
opposing forces. How does decision making come into play from the
managers' standpoint? Educating your crews in aeronautical decision
making is well worth the time and effort invested. There is no doubt that
the benefits of such training will, over time, show up where it counts to
you - - on your bottom line.
In the meantime, your pilots and training personnel need your support
and cooperation to make the program a success. Decision making skills for
your pilots are a life and death subject. Open communication, the sharing
of new ideas and the willingness to discuss grievances are vital to
success in business. Your attitudes towards your employees will
.. contribute to the life of your business, as well as to the lives of your
pilots.
Owner/O~eratorManagement
Another example addresses the same type management issue. The pilot
had a disagreement with his employer (who owned the aircraft) just prior
to departing on a trip from Casper, Wyoming to Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
As he described it, "I was not able to suppress my desires to be out of
this man's (his boss) reach any longer." He admits to flying the small
jet after consuming alcoholic beverages five hours before the flight and
to flying single pilot although the aircraft was not certified single
pilot. He attributed his disregard for the rules and good sense to lack
of rest resulting from the heavy flying schedule imposed upon him by the
boss over the previous week.
You have no doubt encountered similar situations, and have dealt with
them in your own manner. Understanding management's point of view is not
difficult; but, is quite unfair, particularly, when it comes to piloting
an unsafe aircraft or making a trip in unsafe conditions, the decision-
making management person remains on the ground.
A pilot flew into the bush to pick up some hunters who he had
left the week before and found that they had two moose to take
out. He said to them, "I told you, when I left that this airplane
will only carry one moose!" His macho passengers responded with,
"The pilot who flew us in last year flew out with two moose!" This
pilot, feeling responsible for the maintenance of the macho pilot
image said, "Ok, I'll give it a try." So he packed everything,
started the engine of his float plane, taxied around to stir up
the glassy water and opened the throttle for takeoff. He hung for
quite some time in the ground effect before gaining some altitude.
He barely cleared the tree tops at the water's edge before he
realized that he just could not beat the rise in the terrain. He
mushed it into the trees at full power about a mile from the edge
of the lake. Fortunately, none of his passengers was hurt. He
turned to his passengers and said, "I guess I just don't have what
the other pilot did to get out of here." One of them responded,
"Oh, you did very well. The last pilot only made it a half mile!"
1. DETECT - The decision maker detects the fact that change has
occurred.
This chapter is designed to help you identify and understand the five
hazardous attitudes defined for you in the instrument manual of this
series and to see how they can influence your reaction to situations
requiring judgment. The example situations given here are concerned with
commercial operations. As you recall, the five hazardous attitudes are:
Refer back to the instrument manual of this series, Chapter 4, and review
the explanations of the hazardous attitudes. Once you have refreshed your
memory with the definitions, continue with this exercise.
Below you will find another series of true flying situations involving
numerous air-taxi and commercial pilots and managers. At the end of each
situation, you will be asked to select the alternative which best
illustrates the reactions of a pilot who has a particular hazardous
attitude or response pattern. After you select what you feel is the best
alternative, look immediately at the next page for the proper response.
This page will tell you if your answer is correct or incorrect. If you
answered correctly, go on to the next situation. If you answered
incorrectly, you will be told why. Then go back to the situation and
select another alternative.
KEEP SELECTING ALTERNATIVES UNTIL YOU SELECT THE CORRECT ONE. Do not
be concerned if you select a wrong alternative. You will learn something
from the feedback given to you. The lessons are deliberately repetitious
and thus, get easier as you proceed.
THE ANTI-AUTHORITY HAZARDOUS ATTITUDE
From the five choices following each situation, pick the ONE choice
that is the best example of an anti-authority hazardous attitude. Check
, your answers on the next page before continuing. REMEMBER--ifyou did not
choose the correct answer, select another until you choose the correct
one.
Situation 1:
Situation 2:
Your passengers have showed up almost an hour late. You are going to
an airport that requires a reservation. Which of the following
alternatives best illustrates the ANTI-AUTHORITY reaction?
Situation 1:
Alternative c: No. This is the macho attitude, where you get to show
what you can do. Go back to Situation 1 and select another alternative.
Situation 2:
Alternative c: No. This is the macho attitude where you show how you
can do it. Go back to Situation 2 and select another alternative.
From the five choices following each situation, pick the ONE choice
that is the best example of an impulsivity hazardous attitude. Check your
. answers on the next page before continuing. REMEMBER - if you did not
choose the correct answer, select another until you choose the correct
one.
, - -1:
Situation
The owner of the jet you are to fly tonight, is anxious to get to his
destination to make a presentation at a convention. The tops of the level
V thunderstorms were reported to be 5,000 feet above your aircraft ' s
service ceiling. Which of the following alternatives best illustrates the -.
IMPULSIVITY reaction?
a. You are sure you can push the aircraft up over the tops. The
service ceiling is a conservative guess and you're light anyway.
b. You can't change the weather, so you might as well go.
c. You just have to show this guy you can get him there.
d. A little storm won't stop you.
e. You want to hurry and get going, before things get worse.
Situation 2
The aircraft you are flying has just recently been in the shop to have
a new generator installed. The generator "hot" light comes on thirty
minutes into your three hour flight. Which of the following alternatives
best illustrates the IMPULSIVITY reaction?
Alternative b: Once again you are resigning yourself to the fact that
you cannot control the situation (weather). Go back to Situation 1 and
select another alternative.
Alternative c: You are being macho in your thinking when you want to
"show-offn your skills in this manner. Go back to Situation 1 and select
another alternative.
Situation 2:
From the five choices following each situation, pick the ONE choice
that is the best example of an Invulnerability Hazardous attitude. Check
your answers on the next page before continuing. REMEMBER - if you did
not choose the correct answer, select another until you choose the correct
one.
Situation 1:
You've made this approach at least 100 times, many times down to
minimums. The early morning ground fog these summer mornings presents
even a more challenging picture. As you reach the MDA, you peer through
the muck, straining to see that familiar scene. Just as the "TO/FROMM
indicator flips, you catch a glimpse of what you know must be the end of
the runway. You go for it. Which of the following alternatives best
illustrates the INVULNERABILITY reaction?
a. You've made this approach so many times, you could do it with your
eyes shut.
b. You know the minimums can be fudged, just a bit.
c. There's really nothing to this, all's well that ends well.
d. Land it now, there's no time to waste.
e. I hope luck is with me now, it's out of my control.
A GOOD JUDGMENT THOUGHT . . . "Make sure that the runway is in the eye of
the beholder."
Situation 2:
Situation 1:
Situation 2:
From the five choices following each situation, pick the ONE choice
that is the best example of a Macho Hazardous attitude. Check your
b answers on the next page before continuing. REMEMBER - if you did not
choose the correct answer, select another until you choose the correct
one.
Situation 1:
Your company's Part 135 operating certificate has just been suspended,
but you have several flights going out today. You decide to complete at
least the scheduled flights while taking care of the paperwork necessary .
to reinstate your Part 135 status. Which of the following alternatives
best illustrates the MACHO reaction?
A GOOD JUDGMENT THOUGHT. . . " Play by the rules, or you may not play at
all."
Situation 2:
On an IFR flight plan you emerge from a cloud to find yourself within
300 feet of a helicopter. Which of the following alternatives best
illustrates the MACHO reaction?
, Situation 1:
Situation 2:
Alternative a: No. This is the attitude that you have never had
problems before and it would never happen to you. Go back to Situation 2
and select another alternative.
Alternative c: Taking for granted that you are not in control is the
hazardous attitude of resignation. Go back to Situation 2 and select
another alternative.
From the five choices following each situation, pick the ONE choice
that is the best example of a Resignation hazardous attitude. Check yourn
, answers on the next page before continuing. REMEMBER - if you did not
chbose the correct answer, select another until you choose the correct
one.
: Situation 1:
Your co-pilot shows up for duty and his behavior is somewhat out of
the ordinary. You know he has had a cold and when questioned he said
maybe it was the antihistamine he took the night before. Although your
aircraft requires a crew of two, you decide to ignore your co-worker's
.
drowsiness and inattention. Which of the following alternatives best
illustrates the RESIGNATION reaction?
Situation 2:
You are flying the local television broadcast crew to an away football
game of the hometown college. When the passengers show up, there is an
additional person a n d a thousand extra pounds of camera equipment which,
with the existing fuel load, puts you over the maximum gross weight for
takeoff. Which of the following alternatives best illustrates the
RESIGNATION reaction?
a. You can't wait around to de-fuel, they have to get there on time.
b. There is no way you would let them think vou had made a mistake.
c. There really isn't any problem, you'll burn it off soon enough.
d. Weight and balance is a formality forced on us by the government.
e. Well, nobody told you about the extra weight.
RESPONSE LIST 5
Situation 1:
Alternative a: This "I can do it" attitude is one of the macho trait.
Go back to Situation 1 and select another alternative.
Situation 2:
Alternative c: The fact that you feel nothing bad will happen to you
is one of invulnerability. Go back to Situation 2 and select another
a1ternative .
Since you cannot think about two things at the same time, one way to
keep from thinking in a hazardous manner is to consciously alter your
pattern of thought. By telling yourself something divergent from the
hazardous thought, you are, in effect, "taking an antidote" to counteract
that hazardous thought pattern. You remove a hazardous thought by
substituting the antidote or proper thought process. Thus, if you
discover yourself thinking, "It won't happen to me," mentally tell
yourself, "That is a hazardous attitude." Recognize the hazardous
attitude, correctly label it, and then say its antidote to yourself.
To do this, you must MEMORIZE THE ANTIDOTES for each of the hazardous
attitudes. Know them so well that they will automatically come to mind
when you need them.
ANTI-AUTHORITY
"The Regs are for someone "Follow the rules. They are
else." usually right."
IMPULSIVITY
"I must act now, there's "Not so fast. Think first."
no time ."
INWLNERABILITY
"It won't happen to me." "It could happen to me. "
MACHO
"I'll show you. I can do it." "Taking chances is foolish."
RESIGNATION
"What' s the use?" "I'm not helpless, I can
make a difference."
HAZARDOUS ATTITUDE AND ANTIDOTE IDENTIFICATION EXERCISE
Check your responses with those identified in the key after you have
comwleted the scenario. Your responses should closely match the hazardous
attitude responses found in the key. Although some situations can be
interpreted in more than one way, your answers should agree with a
majority of the hazardous attitudes and you should be able to write the
antidotes WORD FOR WORD in your responses. q.
Situation 1
The young pilot is "building time" flying freight at night with the
hopes of someday getting on with one of the major airlines. He figures
that he will be so good after a year of this type of flying that he will
be able to by pass the commuters and proceed straight to his choice of
airlines. He is a college graduate with a degree in engineering, though
his grades were mediocre.
His nightly route takes him to five major ai'rports in the midwest.
This particular December night, the whole area has low ceilings and
moderate mixed icing forecast and reported. The aircraft he usually flies
is down for maintenance, so he is in a model that he has minimum time in.
This really is no concern for him as he knows he can fly it well,
regardless of the weather.
It is cold and windy on the ramp, with blowing snow. The pilot
:
8
Key t o S i t u a t i o n 1
Situation 1
10
Kev t o S i t u a t i o n 2
Situation 2
Situation 3
The mayor of the city has chartered an aircraft to take himself and
members of his staff to a nearby city where he is to present the key to
his city to a visiting dignitary. The passengers are to be picked-up in
Oakland and taken to a northern California city for this affair. Special
catering has been arranged and the most senior pilots from the company
have been scheduled for this important trip. 7
When they arrive back at the ramp, a messenger is waiting to meet them
with the key. Although it is a company policy to shut down all engines
when enplaning or deplaning, the captain opts to leave one running. They
are in a pinch for time.
4
pev to Situation 3
Situation 3
The mayor of the city has chartered an aircraft to take himself and
members of his staff to a nearby city where he is to present the key to
his city to a visiting dignitary. The passengers are to be picked-up in
Oakland and taken to a northern California city for this affair. Special
catering has been arranged and the most senior pilots from the company
have been scheduled for this important trip.
When they arrive back at the ramp, a messenger is waiting to meet them
with the key. Although it is a company policy to shut down all engines
when enplaning or deplaning, (7) the captain opts to leave one running.
(8) Thev are in a inch for time.
Situation 4
The scheduled trip from Miami to Atlanta is routine for this pilot.
The company he flies for is based in Miami, with an office in Atlanta. He
makes this trip at least once a week. The executives are scheduled to
depart at 4 p.m., but arrive an hour early. The aircraft has not been
refueled, but the pilot calculates there is enough to make the trip. He
is hedging on reserves, but those regulations are for folks that don't
know how to manage their fuel as well as he does. He really needs to get
going especially with the company executives waiting.
He decides to get updated weather enroute so he can save some time and
show the execs that he can handle any situation like a pro. A little
schedule change isn't going to get him rattl'ed. In his haste to get
loaded and airborne, the pilot failed to notice the luggage strap hanging
from the nose baggage compartment. He hustles to get the passengers on
board and calls for his clearance.
While taxiing out he muses to himself, "I always figure a way to get
things rolling, right,down to persuading the controllers to give me the
runway I want." The pilot has chosen the closest runway to the hanger and
although there is a hefty tailwind, he does this all of the time and he's
never had any problem.
10
11
12
Kev to Situation 4
Situation 4
The scheduled trip from Miami to Atlanta is routine for this pilot.
The company he flies for is based in Miami, with an office in Atlanta. He
makes this trip at least once a week. The executives are scheduled to
depart at 4 p.m., but arrive an hour early. The aircraft has not been
refueled, but the pilot calculates there is enough to make the trip. (1)
He is hedging on reserves. but those rep-dations are for folks that don't
know how to manage their fuel (2) as well as he does. (3) He really needs
to pet noing
- especiallv with the comvanv executives waiting.
He decides to get updated weather enroute (4) so he can save some time
and (5) show the execs that he can handle any situation like a pro. A
little schedule change isn't going to get him rattled. In his haste to
get loaded and airborne, the pilot failed to notice the luggage strap
hanging from the nose baggage compartment. He hustles to get the
passengers on board and calls for his clearance.
W'9ile taxiing out he muses to himself, (6) "I alwavs figure a wav to
pet t h i n ~ srolling, right down to persuading the controllers to give me
the runway I want." The pilot has chosen the closest runway to the hanger
and although there is a hefty tailwind, he does this all of the time and
(7) he's never had anv problem.
(11) Now he really has to do some fancy fly in^ to im~ressthese EUI??
-
PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS
Perception
The human mind tends to focus like a camera lens either consciously or
subconsciously. In so doing, part of the reality of a situation is
filtered out, thus, ignored or rejected. Psychologists use the term
perception to describe this process which tends to affect our judgment by
reducing the effectiveness of data that are available to us. Each of us
has a different perceptual makeup because our realm of experience is
different. We live by our o m particular view of a given situation.
The following are well established facts concerning how we, as normal
humans, select what goes through our minds. This selection process is a
natural method by which our minds focus on what is most important for
human survival and happiness. It is not a new found process by any one
individual, but rather one which has been developed over centuries with
each of us having our own style of application resulting from our unique
experience. This process should, in no way, be construed as lazy or
negligent, but rather very natural to human existence.
The 7rv G L +-he Situation. To further expand on this concept, Dr. Lee
--
Bolman of Her---aruUniversity has developed a theory of human behavior that
he calls the "Theory of the Situation." This theory states that we
operate (including making decisions), imperfectly, based on our own theory
or beliefs about the present situation. The following five factors are
important to this theory:
Esvoused theory: our values and beliefs together with logic produce
our view of what should happen in a particular situation. We can
check this theory by asking another person to give us his or her
belief +out it.
There is often a difference between the espoused theory and the theory
in use. Extensive training should be undertaken to ensure that the two
are identical in crucial situations, e.g., emergency procedures.
Differences are much more prevalent in the human world because of
attitudes towards people and the powerful effect of selective perception.
* Our ability to adapt our behavior and make appropriate use of the
awareness.
There are a number of other psychological traps into which pilots have
been known to fall. These can generally be avoided or corrected by
adhering to the principles advocated earlier for combating hazardous
attitudes. For example, to the naive public, pilots often hold the
"Macho" image. One of the problems pilots have is that they feel it is
their duty to uphold that image. However, the fact is that a large
segment of the pilot population does not have this attribute. Even those
who do, can have it shattered quite easily by a noticeable failure or
error in flight. The much talked about "Right Stuff" is a fragile image
revealed in Allen Shepard's prayer on top of the Redstone rocket where he
said, "Please God, don't let me #### up." (From the movie, The Right
Stuff).
The lesson from this example is that a tentative attitude can lead to
-decisional errors in flying. The factors leading to these attitudes
result from insecurities present to some degree in all of us. Pilots must
learn to make command decisions through disciplined thinking to overcome
these insecurities when they are faced with making decisions in marginal
flying situations.
In the early 19801s, two young male flight students on a return trip
to Columbus at night, in a Cessna 172 landed in Wilmington, PA with a load
of ice. Witnesses, including a King Air pilot (who decided not to fly
because of the ice), a state patrolman, and local FBO persons saw them
attempting to remove the ice by banging on the wings with wooden sticks.
They were told by everyone that it would be foolhardy to takeoff into that
ice again. Nevertheless, they did. They reached 3,000 feet and could not
get through the ice. They crash-landed in trees on a hill top not far
from Wilmington. Luckily, they were unhurt and spent the night in the
plane until they were found by hunters the next day.
Scud running. VFR pilots are more likely to fall into the trap of
scud running than commercial/instrument pilots but even the most
experienced instrument pilots sometimes fall victim, either because their
equipment is VFR only or they don't want to go through the trouble of
filing IFR. Scud running is the practice of flying as low as necessary
over the ground to avoid the clouds. The danger is that the ceiling
and/or visibility may change for the worse at any moment. At the altitude
of most scud running, these changes may occur undetected by the pilot
which greatly increases the chance of running into the terrain. Pilots,
- who have an invulnerability attitude, may convince themselves that they
can make it through visually just by going a little lower or a little
slower, especially when present conditions are reported VFR at the weather
stations. They go about it ignoring the fact that the weather between
reporting stations may be well below what it is at the stations. There
may be pressures to get somewhere with less than IFR equipment on board.
Scud running is best countered through the realization (headwork) that you
are putting yourself at great risk when challenging unknown weather.
Takeoff with less than minimum fuel. The practice of taking off with
less fuel than the regulations require is a case of an anti-authority
attitude. It may be caused by a hurried pilot not wanting to take the
time to refuel or one who has overloaded the aircraft and cannot fuel to
the level required plus reserve, and still get off the ground. It may be
a pilot who plans for a flight that is beyond the range of his aircraft
with proper reserves but he wants to make it non-stop. One can also run
low on fuel when the winds turn out to be different than forecast.
Finally, some pilots may elect not to take on "holding fuel" because they
can save money for the company. This invulnerability attitude then gets
them into trouble when they are asked to hold for weather or traffic at
their destination. One must realize that the regulations are written for
achievable circumstances. Minimum fuel requirements allow but a small
margin for error - perhaps in headwind calculation or traffic problems.
This practice indicates an invulnerability and an anti-authority attitude
problem and is correctable through proper understanding and respect for
the regulations as minimum criteria to maintain safety.
Flving
- IFR below MEA. For unknbwn reasons, some pilots, when
encountering clouds enroute, do not climb to MEA and request an IFR
clearance. Instead, they continue toward their destination in the clouds,
below MEA, thinking that ATC will not have any other aircraft in the
airspace and there will be no other VFR pilots out there doing the same
thing. Like many of the other examples mentioned above, descent below MEA
is a case of the pilot believing that the margin provided by the
regulations is sufficient to permit some bending. The pilot must realize
again that the regulation limit is set for the best of circumstances and
assumes good pilot judgment. Pilots must who violate those limits face
very great risks. This is a combination of invulnerability and anti-
authority attitudes that should be addressed in judgment attitude
training.
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
Flight
- Planning
These same customers are also in the position to make last minute
changes to your careful flight planning. It is not uncommon for example,
for the passengers to show up and weigh significantly more (rarely less)
than had been communicated when making the charter booking. When carrying
cargo, you will seldom know the exact weight of the load until it arrives
for loading. A series of tables and calculations for your mission worked
out ahead of time will help in these variable situations. If the total
weight of passengers &nd/or cargo does not allow flight within the limits
of the aircraft, it is your responsibility to handle the situation. It is
not an easy one, but the decision must be made and adhered to. Another
related situation is when your passengers show up for the flight
intoxicated. The FAR'S are explicit regarding this, and once again, you
are the decision maker in this difficult situation.
In-fli~htDecision Making
Six nights a week, the Air-taxi pilot flew the same route (Ft. Wayne -
Chicago - Indianapolis - Pittsburgh - Ft. Wayne) carrying "hazardous
materials" used in medical diagnosis. The aircraft and cargo were
.authorized to land only at designated airports. The point had been made
many times that the pilot's career may end in paper work if he were to put
down at an unauthorized airport. The pilot was "haz-mat" qualified and
the aircraft was equipped to carry the radio-active materials.
As the pilot with his particularly "hot and heavy" load departed the
Chicago area, it was obvious that he would have to deviate around the
weather quite soon. He had decided to try to fly west around the storm
and then south and approach Indianapolis from the west. Deviations were
approved by Chicago Center, though it was mentioned by the controller that
several of the commuter airline flights enroute from Chicago to
Indianapolis were able to get around the heavier activity by going east
rather than west and then approaching Indianapolis from the east. Since
neither the aircraft's nor the controller's radar range covered far enough
to the southwest to see the backside of the squall line, the pilot decided
to take the already tested route hoping to out-run the weather.
The weather in the entire midwest was deteriorating rapidly, fuel was
being burned, and the turbulence had increased from moderate to severe.
Fortunately, the cargo could not shift because it was packed tightly in
the cabin. The thought process this pilot was going through went
something like this :
"If I don't get headed south pretty soon, I won't have enough
fuel to make it at all. But, that storm scope looks like a laser
light show and the radar shows thunderstorms everywhere. I wonder
what really would happen to me if I had to put down at an
unauthorized airport?"
"What if?" is not just an exercise in story telling, but rather the
serious practice in decision making. Even though you may not get all of
the answers on the ground, you will become better at knowing how to ask
yourself the questions.
Terrain Factors
- and Analysis
Weather Predictinn
Your understanding of t h e l i m i t a t i o n s i n t h e p r e d i c t i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s
i n any weather r e p o r t i n g w i l l g r e a t l y a i d i n a s s e s s i n g t h e r i s k s involved
i n a given f l i g h t . P r e d i c t i n g t h e weather i s not a n e x a c t s c i e n c e ,
although i t has become much b e t t e r oxwer t h e y e a r s . S t i l l , some p i l o t s
think t h a t t h e weather information received i s never r i g h t and t h i s can
l e a d t o e r r o r i n judgment a s w e l l . The following s t a t i s t i c s regarding t h e
p r o b a b i l i t y of a c o r r e c t f o r e c a s t w i l l help t o c l a r i f y what r e a l l y should
be expected.
3. F o r e c a s t s of s i n g l e r e p o r t a b l e v a l u e s of c e i l i n g o r v i s i b i l i t y
i n s t e a d of a range of v a l u e s imply a n accuracy t h a t t h e p r e s e n t
f o r e c a s t i n g system does n o t p o s s e s s beyond t h e f i r s t 2 o r 3 hours
of t h e f o r e c a s t p e r i o d .
7. S u r f a c e v i s i b i l i t y i s more d i f f i c u l t t o f o r e c a s t t h a n c e i l i n g
height. V i s i b i l i t y i n snow i s t h e most d i f f i c u l t of a l l
v i s i b i l i t y forecasts. S k i l l i n t h e s e f o r e c a s t s l e a v e s much t o be
desired.
F o r e c a s t e r s CAN p r e d i c t t h e f o l l o w i n g a t l e a s t 75 p e r c e n t o f t h e t i m e :
1. The time f r e e z i n g r a i n w i l l b e g i n .
One other important weather factor to deal with is windshear and the
even more well-known "microburst". Some aircraft manufacturers are
experimenting with a specially developed windshear indication device. The
display would be in conjunction with the airspeed indicator. The
information presented is computed from accelerometers constantly and
instantaneously measuring vertical and horizontal speed changes. This may
become a very worthwhile safety device in the future, but in the meantime
awareness of the potential dangers of windshear is essential if one is to
remain clear of extremely hazardous conditions.
The fine line between unnecessarily tying up the frequency and failing
to convey all of the necessary information is a critical pilot judgment
responsibility while sharing the air traffic control party-line.
Communication techniques vary from pilot-to-pilot and from company to
company, but the recommended procedures should be adhered to by all. The
recommended procedures and common phraseology are not an option,
especially during abnormal or emergency situations. Communicating to the
c o n t r o l l e r t h e n a t u r e of t h e s i t u a t i o n could v e r y w e l l determine whether
you have a s u c c e s s f u l o r u n s u c c e s s f u l outcome t o your f l i g h t .
Another n o t o r i o u s a c c i d e n t involved an a i r l i n e r t h a t c r a s h e d i n 1
Georgia following a double flameout i n a s e v e r e thunderstorm. In this
s i t u a t i o n , ATC c o n t i n u e d t o work o t h e r t r a f f i c on t h e frequency. Though
t h e c o n t r o l l e r s were n o t t o blame, b e t t e r communication may have l e d t h e a
a i r c r a f t s a f e l y t o an a i r p o r t d i r e c t l y beneath them, i n s t e a d of t r y i n g t o
g l i d e t o an a i r p o r t 20 m i l e s away. The o v e r r i d i n g p o i n t remains t h a t t h e
p i l o t i n command i s u l t i m a t e l y r e s p o n s i b l e . This f a c t remains t r u e with
r e s p e c t t o ATC communications. I f the message i s n o t p e r f e c t l y c l e a r ,
t h e r e i s no shame i n "say a g a i n " .
Communication i n t h e Cockpit
A f t e r t e r m i n a t f n g w i t h A T C , k h e c a p t a i n p r o c e e d e d Co b e r a t e
t h e f i r s t o f f i c e r r e g a r d i n g d e c l a r i n g a n emergency and n o t d o i n g
a s h e was t o l d . During t h e e n t i r e e p i s o d e , no a t t e m p t t o r e s o l v e
t h e s i t u a t i o n was i n i t i a t e d and o f c o u r s e t h e emergency p r o c e d u r e
c h e c k l i s t remained stowed i n i t s u n a v a i l a b l e p o s i t i o n .
A L e a r j e e 2 5 B i s a % e a r j e t 25D i s a E e a r j e t 25D i s n o t - n e c e s s a r i l y
true. Nor i s a Baron i s a Baron i s a Baron. Each i n d i v i d u a l a i r c r a f t
w i l l have some d i f f e r e n c e s , T h i s i s t r u e f o r a l l makes a n d models of
~ . i r c r a f t you f l y . When you. are qua:l_ified and f l y i n g s e v e r a l makes and
models, t h i n g s c o u l d even g e t more c o n f u s i n g . L e t " even p u t you i n t h e
s i t u a t i o n of f l y i n g a d i f f e r e n t t y p e o f a i r c r a f t on d i f f e r e n t l e g s o f t h e
same t r i p . T h i s i s where b a s i c human e n g i n e e r i n g ( o r l a c k t h e r e o f ) needs
t o be overcome by p i l o t a w a r e n e s s .
~ i 1-Y. cn*:k,;rr i- ec~uipnlent is becoming more and ntore
As stated p r . i ~ \01i.5
< *
sophfsticateci, t r b rht- o r 1 : L.II!, iimlting factor in the safety of
operation being the p i l o l ~ . 'Throw into that a change of planes every now
, .
and then and thc ~ p . ~ i o rhas f - o contend with variety as well as
sophistication. Ui:: 2 aecidor:ir studtes identified the culprit,
"non-standard" r:oclcpii: d e s i . g r i , as a major contributor to "pilot error"
fatalities. Th1.s ?:eseau-t:h helped. i n ~nforcing some standardization
restrictions on the par.t: OF rxlar~~.ti~aci:rr~:eu's~But, a Baron is still not a
Baron is still not. a Darnr~
So, given this sii:rxa.l-.i.on, ihau opt-ions are available to the pilot to
help in making a good. trarisit:f.isn back and forth between different
aircraft? The best. advar~tage :TO give yourself while piloting several
makes and rnode.ls of a i i c r a f i : (nci. simultaneously of course) is to limit
the total types i f p o c n s s i - f e , esizablish proficiency requirements and
maintain them .Ln each - t y p e , and : ~ the e checklists. If you are not
comfortable at any poirit. i n txhe, raise your own minimums or take a
co -pilot even i f i r z - 7 i. r-equ.ired The time to evaluate your current
proficiency, thou&, i . s b e f o r e taxiing 0u.i: for take-off. It may just be a
matter of sitting i-s i-he aircrafti reviewing the manual and checklists and
"thought flyir-lg" a rni.r!..i.-fiight Ghile on the ground. In any case, make
sure you are comfnrr-.abieand confident about the equipment now, even if
you felt right at home \;?hen you :Flew it 6 months ago.
The pilot is wal.kd.r-lg ,atxi:. on the ramp to board her 1.5 mi~l.liondollar
aircraft - - carrying a p j . ? ? o w ! l ? ! S h e i 64 inches tall, but the seat and
rudder pedals in this yarrkcular aircraft (and several others that she has
flown) do nor adjust- tar enough to allow her full range of control of the
aircraft. This is not a .ilnic/ue situation for the shorter- pilot. Similar
discomforts also face .call cockpit crewmembers. Human comfort in the form
of a "Lazy-BoyvTrec~lizaerChair is n o i required, but the ability to perform
all flight duties adec~nate3.yas well as maintain physical comfort is
primary in the design [cf aircraf~seats. Of course, the manufacturers may
not be able to h a v e a :fi.exiblc enough design to accommodate all size
pilots. This is where ,cr~atrs~-e conlfori: comes in, and if that requires
additional seating ik should be used.
--
The "OptionqqF a c ~ z
The following scenarios and exercises will give you the opportunity to
review your newly acquired aeronautical decision making abilities. Refer
back to the appropriate chapters (in this volume as well as in the
Instrument Volume) for necessary memory joggers if necessary prior to
completing the following section. Before beginning the scenario review,
check your recollection of the decision making material by filling in the
blanks below with the correct answers.
d. -
e.
In the following example, carefully read the scenario first and then
answer the questions that follow. Your answers to these questions will be
discussed with you by your instructor.
Great! The v a j - v - e - r j u - s t . came i n t o d a y from the insurance
company and I car? ' i i n a l . l y :FLy t h e r u n t o n i g h t by myself. Good
t h i n g t h e company % s i.n a b a d way f o r p i l o t s . They had t o ask f o r
a w a i v e r to get. me .Insured wifh Less t h a n t h e r e q u i r e d hours
s t a t e d o n the p o l i c , y
Discuss ion
I I n reading . ~ . h i s, : i l o t s V h o u g h e s on h i s n e w j o b , d i d you p e r c e i v e
any risks t h a t I-IF d i d net c o n s i d e r ?
2. Which h a z a r d o u s a t t i - i u d a s doantnate t h i s p i l o t s s t h i n k i n g ?
Discussion
TI-< next two scenarios take a look at pilots who used the antidotes to
counter hazardous attitudes as they crept into their thinking. Ey
definition, these fligh~swere considered successful by the pilots, i.e.,
no damage to persons or property. On the other hand, management may have
considered them to be unsuccessful because the mission at hand was not
accomplished in a timely manner. As a final review, read the following
scenarios and answer the questions. Good luck in all of your aeronautical
endeavors and decision waking.
Discussion
G0
" T h a n k s t o a C o u r s e ~ nD e c i s i o n Making"
Well, b u s i n e s s a s u s u a l . I would p i c k up my c a r g o a c r o s s t h e
f i e l d and b e on my way i n t o t h e c o l d , s l i m y , muck. I t was j u s t a
s h o r t hop, about two h o u r s t o t a l time u n t i l I s h o u l d be back and
on my way home. That i s of c o u r s e , i f t h e r e a r e no "emergency"
f l i g h t s t h a t need t o be d i s p a t c h e d when 1 g e t b a c k . A s much a s 1
needed t h e e x t r a money, I even s i l e n t l y hoped t h a t t o n i g h t I would
n o t be needed a f t e r I g o t b a c k .
The c u r r e n t w e a t h e r was s t i l l e x t r e m e l y d i s m a l . I g a t h e r e d my
n o n - s p e a k i n g c a r g o and was ow t h e r u n . I noticed the b a t t e r i e s
c h a r g i n g on r u n - u p and c o u l d n ? h e l p b u t remember a few o t h e r
Senecas 1 had flown w i t h l o w b a t t e r i e s behaving i n t h e same
manner. 1 b r i e f l y (very b r i e f l y ) considered n o t d e p a r t i n g , b u t I
knew we d i d n o t have a n o t h e r a i r c r a f t a v a i l a b l e a s a r e p l a c e m e n t .
So, I checked t h e g a u g e s , determined t h a t e v e r y t h i n g looked a l l
r i g h t a s l o n g a s t h e RPM's were u p , and I t a x i e d o u t .
As i n a l l s f a v i a t i o n , t h e r e i s a p e c k i n g o r d e r , and t h a t
holds t r u e f o r disparching of the a i r c r a f t involved i n f r e i g h t
operations. 1 ( b e i n g ehe s l i g h t l y c o m p e t i t i v e t y p e ) s m i l e d a s I
r e c e i v e d my c l e a r a n c e b e f o r e my l i t c l e L e a r j e t f r i e n d s who a r e
going t o b e a t me no m a t t e r , b u t e v e r y l i t t l e b i t h e l p s . I prided
myself on my t i m e s , f u e l - b u r n and a b i l i t y t o f i n d ways t o g e t
t h e r e , even when ehe odds seemed a g a i n s t me. I guess t h i s comes
with the t e r r i t o r y .
Discussion
e. -
5. L i s t t h e a n t i d o t e s t o t h e above h a z a r d o u s t h o u g h t s :