Astra International (ASII IJ) 2024 Update

8/19/24, 9:21 PM (4) Astra International (ASII IJ) － 2024 update
DEEP-DIVES
Astra International (ASII IJ) － 2024 update

Indonesia's leader auto maker at 6.1x P/E. Estimated reading time: 21 minutes
MICHAEL FRITZELL
AUG 18, 2024 ∙ PAID
11 Share
Disclaimer: Asian Century Stocks uses information sources believed to be reliable, but
their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in this publication is not
intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your
personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the
publisher and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to discuss your
investment options with your financial advisers and to understand whether any investment
is suitable for your specific needs. From time to time, I may have positions in the securities
covered in the articles on this website. Full disclosure: I do not hold a position in Astra
International when publishing this article. Note that this is a disclosure and not a
recommendation to buy or sell.
https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/astra-international-asii-ij-2024 1/32
Astra’s headquarters in Jakarta. Source: Astra International
In less than a year, Indonesia has transformed from one of the hottest stock markets in
Asia into a relative pariah.
One company that’s suffered recently is the Indonesian automotive conglomerate Astra
International. It has a 56% market share and is widely regarded as one of the best-
managed companies in Indonesia. From this perspective, it’s surprising that the stock
trades at just 6.1x P/E.
I’ve written about Astra’s parent, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, in the past. But this time, I
want to revisit the story from the perspective of Astra to understand why the company
has become out of favor. And to explore what might change over the next few years.
Table of contents:
1. Quick recap
2. Update since my first write-up
2.1. Financials
2.2. The post-2021 auto sales recovery
2.3. A boom and bust in heavy equipment sales

2.4. A series of acquisitions
3. What will change for Astra?
3.1. Cautious guidance
3.2. Interest rate declines
3.4. Electrification of vehicles
3.5. Indian and Chinese demand for coal is rising
4. Valuation multiples
5. Conclusion
1. Quick recap
I wrote about Astra’s parent Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP － US$8 billion) )
(“Jardine C&C”) back in 2021. It’s listed in Singapore and owns several consumer-related
businesses, the largest of which is Indonesian automaker Astra International (ASII IJ －
US$13 billion).
Here’s my presentation on Jardine C&C from back then:
My key points were as follows:
Jardine Cycle and Carriage, also known as “Jardine C&C”, is a holding company in
the Jardine Matheson Group focused on consumer-related investments in
Southeast Asia.
Jardine C&C’s most important asset is a 50% stake in Indonesia’s largest

automaker, Astra International. Other parts of Jardine C&C included an 11% stake
in Vinamilk, a small stake in engineering firm Refrigeration Electrical Engineering,
shares in Siam City Cement, and Vietnamese automaker THACO. However, Astra
represented 73% of NAV and was, hence, the main focus of my presentation.
So, who is Astra? It’s the local partner of Toyota and Daihatsu in Indonesia, engaged
in both vehicle production and distribution. Thanks to strong execution, it now
controls a 50%+ market share in the Indonesian auto market. This market
dominance reminds me of Maruti Suzuki in India, which also assembles and
distributes vehicles in a fast-growing emerging market and trades at a P/E ratio of
26x.
As fund manager Michael McGaughy recounts here, Astra’s founding family has a
great reputation in Jakarta business circles. Astra is known for treating its minority
shareholders well.
The long-term case for the Indonesian auto market was and remains compelling.
The car ownership rate was just 60 vehicles per 1,000 individuals compared to over
200 in China and 600 in Europe. That low penetration has been driving single-digit
volume growth for decades.
Astra is also involved in the distribution of heavy equipment through its subsidiary,
United Tractors. It primarily sells Komatsu-branded heavy equipment to Indonesian
coal miners and operates coal mines, both on its own and for third parties.
COVID-19 hit the auto market as consumers stayed at home. There was also a
headwind to auto sales between 2015 and 2019. Coal prices had also been low
throughout 2020 and 2021. But I thought there would eventually be an end to the
pandemic and that the currency would stabilize. I predicted a return to country-
wide auto sales volumes of over 1 million vehicles annually.
My numbers at the time showed a sum-of-the-parts valuation of Jardine C&C

+49% above the then-prevailing share price. With my projection of a recovery in
Indonesia’s auto market, I predicted a P/E ratio for Jardine C&C of around 6-7x.
2. Update since my first write-up
Source: Astra International
Since my first presentation of Jardine C&C back in August 2021, the share price has risen
about 30% from about SG$20/share to SG$26.
Jardine C&C (JCNC SP)
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Jardine C&C’s Indonesian auto subsidiary Astra International has performed worse,
especially considering that it’s denominated in Indonesian Rupiah － a currency that has
dropped 12% against the Singapore Dollar over the past three years:
Astra International (ASII IJ)

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So, what’s the explanation for this decline? In my view, two separate factors:
The auto market enjoyed a forceful recovery after COVID-19, partly due to tax
exemptions. But more recently, higher interest rates and 2024 election uncertainties
have caused customers to delay purchases.
Coal prices rallied in 2022 due to strong demand from China and India, along with
the war in Ukraine, which caused European natural gas prices to spike to incredible
levels. That boom is now over, and in inflation-adjusted terms, coal prices are just a
bit above the pre-COVID levels.
I’ll touch on these two themes throughout this post. But first, let’s look at how Astra has
performed financially since 2021.
2.1. Financials
Astra has done well since the pandemic, with its revenues hitting an all-time high and its
operating margin hitting 21%, a level almost on par with the 2000s-era:
Earnings per share almost doubled from 2020 to 2023, driven by a 34% increase in
revenues from 2019, along with gross margin expansion and cost control:
Segment-level numbers provide more details of what’s occurred. Fully-consolidated

subsidiaries include Astra’s 51% owned Toyota-Astra Motor joint venture, which sells
Toyota vehicles into the Indonesia market. As we know, auto sales fully recovered from
the pandemic. Another fully consolidated subsidiary is United Tractors (UNTR IJ -
US$5.8 billion) which sold a record number of units of Komatsu-branded heavy
equipment.
The joint venture line includes profits from the sales of vehicles at 50%-owned
motorcycle seller Astra Honda Motor, which suffered the semiconductor chip shortages
in 2022 but has since recovered. The associate line includes profits from the sales of
passenger vehicles at 32%-owned Astra Daihatsu motor. Just like for Toyota, sales of
Daihatsu cars also recovered from the pandemic.
The following segment profit contribution charts shows just how important the heavy
equipment and coal mining business has been for Astra’s profits in recent years. The
yellow and red bars includes the selling and financing, primarily of passenger vehicles.
The pink bars stand for “Heavy Equipment Manufacturing and Construction Equipment”,
which primarily refers to United Tractors, as mentioned above. Astra’s other businesses
are not material.
2.2. The post-2021 auto sales recovery
An Astra Toyota dealership in Kuta, Bali. Source: Google Maps
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the Indonesian government introduced large-
scale social restrictions that prevented people from moving around. Manufacturing
operations were closed down, and dealerships could not operate normally. Astra’s auto
business ground to a halt.
But from the third quarter of 2020, production lines restarted and there was a partial
recovery in Astra’s auto sales volumes back to 25,000 units per month.
In mid-2021, Indonesia’s movement restrictions were eliminated, and auto sales

recovered almost completely, as you can tell from the following chart:
A full recovery in auto sales from 2020 to 2022
Another driver of this recovery was the March 2021 removal of the so-called luxury tax
for vehicles with engines smaller than 1.5 liters. In Indonesia, these luxury taxes for autos
are about 10% for lower-end vehicles and as high as 200% for the most premium
brands. So the removal of these taxes led to a bump in auto sales throughout 2021
when these tax exemptions were in place.
2022 proved to be an even better year for auto sales as the domestic economy
recovered. Astra argued that production was hampered somewhat by a temporary
disruption in the supply of semiconductor chips, especially for Honda two-wheelers. But
by the end of that year, sales volumes of both passenger cars and motorcycles
recovered nicely.
In December 2022, the government shifted its focus to support the electrification of
vehicles. It removed the luxury tax for fully electric vehicles through 2024 and a VAT
reduction from 11% to 1%. Hybrids enjoyed a partial reduction in taxes. In Indonesian
media, there’s been much talk of new brands like BYD entering the market, posing a
threat to incumbents. But Astra has actually maintained its market share despite EV sales
now making up for about 7% of the total. The reason is that Toyota has special strength
in hybrids, which dominate Indonesia’s EV market.
Astra’s market share has actually increased
If you check the chart on Astra’s car sales volumes, you’ll notice a slight drop in 2024.
The primary reason is that Indonesia’s benchmark interest rates have risen from 3.5% to
6.25% today. While auto loans remain cheap, this increase has led to higher borrowing
costs and a hit to sales volumes:
In the first half of 2024, new passenger vehicle sales declined by -17%, commercial
vehicle sales declined by -26% and motorcycle sales declined by -4%. Sell-side analysts
have blamed higher interest rates and weaker commodity prices, as vehicles are
frequently purchased for business activities, e.g., looking after oil palm plantations.
2.3. A boom and bust in heavy equipment sales
As mentioned earlier, Astra’s 60%-owned subsidiary, United Tractors, is involved in the

distribution of heavy equipment from brands such as Komatsu and Scania with total
exclusivity. The heavy equipment includes excavators, wheel loaders, cranes, bulldozers,
etc. The primary end markets for this equipment include coal mining, agriculture,
forestry as well as construction of infrastructure and commercial property.
2022 and 2023 were strong years for the sales of Komatsu heavy equipment in
Indonesia, surpassing the 2018 level, though not reaching the level of the 2010-2011
commodity bubble:
United Tractors also operates as a mining contractor for third-party coal mines through
the subsidiary “Pamapersada Nusantara” (PAMA). This business has not grown materially
in the past ten years, but that’s mostly due to a sluggish market for coal:
United Tractors also owns coal mines of its own. On my numbers, at least 2/3 of United
Tractors’ business is coal mining related. The remainder is sales of heavy equipment and
trucks to non-coal mining related sectors such as oil palm plantations, gold mines, nickel
mines, etc.
So, coal prices must matter a great deal for United Tractors. International coal prices, as
measured by Newcastle coal futures, skyrocketed from 2020 to 2022, then suffered a
bust from 2023 onwards:
As mentioned earlier, record demand from China and India was the initial impetus for
higher prices. Then came the war in Ukraine in early 2022, causing the prices for
substitutes such as natural gas to skyrocket.
United Tractors segment profit chart shows just how important these higher coal prices
have been for its profitability. The pink chart shows profits from the company’s fully-
owned coal mines, while the mining contracting segment shows profits from the
operation of third-party owned mines.
United Tractors now says that it’s seeing lower demand for coal from both China and
India. The Chinese government has apparently pushed for the consumption of local coal
vs foreign. In the mining contracting segment, customers are apparently hurting from
lower coal prices, but volumes remain strong and so the company hasn’t felt the full
impact of the lower prices yet.
In the first half of 2024, United Tractors financials show a -15% year-on-year decrease in
earnings per share.
In terms of revenues, Komatsu heavy equipment sales decreased -32% year-on-year to

just 2,147 units and revenues from spare parts decreased as well due to lower utilization.
Lower coal prices caused higher-margin coal mining revenues to drop -23%. And so,
almost all of this decline can be attributed to lower coal prices.
2.4. A series of acquisitions

In the past few years, Astra has made several acquisitions within the tech sector,
including a US$150 million investment in ride-hailing app Go-Jek in 2018. More recently,
Astra acquired the classifieds platform OLX Indonesia from Prosus to gain exposure to
Indonesia’s second-hand auto market. Then, there was a US$100 million acquisition of
Indonesian teleconsultation company Haladoc. Finally, a related party transaction where
Astra bought a stake in Jaya Mandarin Oriental for US$50 million from a fellow Jardine
Matheson company.
A nickel smelter in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Source: Adek Berry / AFP
Astra’s subsidiary United Tractors has diversified away from coal mining into nickel, gold
and renewable energy sources. For example, in 2023, United Tractors acquired 20% of
Australia’s Nickel Industries (NIC AU - US$2.2 billion) for AU$943 million. It took place
through a new share issue. While listed in Australia, Nickel Industries has large stakes in
Indonesian nickel mines. Earlier this year, United Tractors also acquired geothermal
power generation company Supreme Energy for US$52 million.
While these acquisitions will make a small contribution on the margin, I do not believe
that they will change the overall trajectory of earnings for Astra. A sell-side analyst
believes that Nickel Industries will boost United Tractors earnings by about 5%, and for
Astra, even less than that.
3. What will change for Astra?

3.1. Cautious guidance
Astra’s guidance has been cautious, suggesting that 2024 will be a weak year due to
election uncertainties and weak economic growth:
“In 2024, we will still see uncertainties, mostly arising from deceleration trend of
global economic growth and wait-and-see approach as Indonesia faces a political
year.
Customers have been postponing investments until there’s more certainty of who
becomes the next president:
“Amid the uncertainty of a political year, businesses will opt to postpone investments
in heavy equipment and commercial vehicles based on a wait-and-see perspective”
But even after the election, a recovery in the sales of construction equipment is by no
means a certainty, given the weakness in coal prices:
“Demand for heavy equipment is predicted to still face challenges in 2024 and the
next several years. In addition to fluctutions in global commodities prices, the
mining sector currently faces regulatory obligations related to carbon trading, net
zero emission and industrial downstreaming”
Commentary from United Tractors mining contracting subsidiary makes it clear that it
doesn’t see a near-term resolution to the current weakness:
“The volatility in coal prices is expected to persist. However, PAMA remains

committed to prioritizing operational excellence and cost leadership as fundamental
pillars for efficient production process.”
In other words, we might be seeing a post-election uptick in the demand for commercial
vehicles and heavy equipment, but weak coal prices will weigh on the demand in the
near-term.
3.2. Interest rate declines

So we know that the demand for passenger vehicles was weak in the first half of 2024,
down -17% year-on-year in volume terms. The average discounts for passenger vehicles
also rose to about IDR 30 million per car in April 2024. This weakness has been seen
across the board and must be partly related to current high interest rates. In Indonesia,
roughly 80% use car financing to purchase their vehicles.
In the words of rating agency Fitch:
"Sales in the remainder of 2024 are unlikely to accelerate dramatically, given the
policy interest-rate hike in April and the increased likelihood that car-financing rates
will remain high this year as market liquidity tightens gradually."
Jefferies macro strategist Chris Wood has made the point that the Indonesian stock
market has two separate catalysts:
1. A marked increase in Fed easing expectations
2. Evidence of pro-growth policies under the government of new President Prabowo

Subianto
I think that we’re likely to see both of these play out in the next year. Wood believes that
Southeast Asian central banks such as Bank Indonesia would like to cut interest rates
given subdued consumer price inflation of just 2.1% per year:
Indonesia consumer price inflation. Source: Trading Economics
What’s stopping them is a fear that the Indonesian Rupiah would take a hit, given that
US interest rates remain exceptionally high at 5.25-5.50%.
I’ve said this before, but I think it’s clear that we’re nearing a Fed interest rate easing
cycle, perhaps as early as September. The US job market continues to deteriorate at a
slow pace with sequentially higher unemployment numbers. The ex-shelter inflation rate
shows that inflation pressures have mostly eased. US real interest rates are now very
high from a historical perspective, and that won’t last forever.
For that reason, I suspect that US and consequently Indonesian interest rates will drop
gradually in the next year, providing support for Astra’s sales volumes.
3.3. Electrification of vehicles

There’s been much talk about new competition from foreign brands like BYD offering
low-priced electric vehicles, challenging the Japanese incumbents that have teamed up
with Astra.
In Jakarta earlier this year, BYD launched three new electric vehicles. The Atto 3 model
apparently costs just IDR 465 million and its Dolphin model just IDR 365 million.
At the same time, BYD revealed that it would invest US$1.3 billion to build a factory in
Indonesia with a production capacity of 150,000 cars. The company hopes that
Indonesia will become its major new growth driver in Southeast Asia.
More recently, we saw the opening of Southeast Asia’s first electric vehicle battery plant,
located in West Java and owned by Hyundai Motor and LG Energy Solution and costing
US$1 billion to build. The plant has an annual capacity of 10 GWh, enough to support
the sales of 150,000 electric vehicles per year. These will most likely be sold under the
Hyundai Kona brand name. And there are plans to expand the capacity of the factory to
20 GWh.
Separately, Chinese battery maker CATL has started building a US$6 billion mining-to-
batteries complex in North Maluku, Indonesia. The project will cover nickel mining,
battery materials, recycling and an EV battery factory. While construction has already
begun, it’s unclear when it will be completed.
The Indonesian government itself has a set a goal that it wants to export 200,000 electric
cars by 2025, roughly 20% of its current total export volumes.
Given that BYD is a battery maker, too, and does not buy batteries from CATL, it sounds
like there will be enough capacity to build batteries for well over 300,000 electric
vehicles per year, potentially putting a dent into Astra’s market share.
I’m skeptical about these investments. Luxury tax and VAT exemptions of, say, 20% are
not going to sway individuals to buy less-convenient electric vehicles. There are only
1,400 charging stations in Indonesia. With traffic jams that can last for 3-4 hours, by
driving an electric vehicle you risk getting stuck on the road and call for emergency
services.
That consumers are skeptical about electric vehicles is clear from the data. In 2023,
Indonesia’s hybrid car sales increased 5.2x to 54,000 units compared to battery electric
vehicle sales of just 17,000 units. That’s why I think Astra will do just fine. Because Astra’s
Toyota brand is the clear world leader in hybrids.
In July 2024, Toyota showcased its new Prius hybrids at the annual Gaikindo Indonesia
International Auto Show. The new hybrid model isn’t cheap at UDR 698 million Rupiah,
but there are cheaper models to choose from, too.
For all the talk about BYD’s success, Astra’s market share has actually gone up from 52%
before COVID-19 to 56% in the first half of 2024. So, the much-feared market share
losses have not occurred － at least not yet. So far, the top Chinese automaker is micro
car maker Wuling, with 3% of the market. Not even the Koreans have been able to put a
dent into Japan’s dominance of the Indonesian market, and that’s after over a decade of
trying.
3.4. Indian and Chinese demand for coal is rising

Coal is either used for steel production (“metallurgical coal”) or for power generation
(“thermal coal”). However, Indonesia’s coal exports are almost overwhelmingly used for
power generation.
While the demand for coal has gone down in developed markets over the past 15 years,
that is not the case in China and India, where the construction of coal-fired power plants
continues at a rapid pace:
Today, China is planning to add 40 GW of capacity per year, and India another 14 GW
per year (derived from the target of 90GW until 2032).
These numbers compare with a global capacity of 2,130 GW, which means that growth
in demand from these two countries will probably be 2-3%. While the OECD aims to
reduce its reliance on coal, it still seems as if the net increase is going to remain positive
to the tune of about 2% per year:
Source: Global Energy Monitor
When it comes to supply, capex has been limited since the bull market peaked in 2011.
That’s partly because the United States and Australia, according to Trader Ferg, are
trying hard to disincentivize the supply of new coal mines.
Global coal growth capex in US$ billions. Source: Trader Ferg
With these capex levels, global coal production has been roughly flat. This seems to
suggest that supply & demand isn’t out of whack, and the market will probably tighten
over time.
Source: IEA
I’m far from a coal industry expert, especially when it comes to Indonesia, but nothing
I’ve read in the past day or two makes me particularly worried about United Tractors’
coal exposure. I believe in baseload power generation, and with the long lags in the
construction of nuclear power plants and the difficulty of building infrastructure for
natural gas-fired power plants, coal remains the only other viable option. In the words of
Substack author Robert Bryce:
“Surging coal use also shows that the Iron Law of Electricity hasn’t been repealed.
That law says, people, businesses, and countries will do whatever they have to do
to get the electricity they need. The surge in coal use is a sober reminder that the
fuel remains a cornerstone of electricity generation, particularly in Asia.”
So even though we would like to wean off coal, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen
anytime soon. Especially not when demand for coal is rising at a rapid pace in emerging
markets like India.
4. Valuation
Today, Astra’s headline P/E is only 6.1x, along with a 10.6% dividend yield:
That’s an exceptionally low number given the still-low car ownership rate of 87 per 1,000
people, remaining far lower than, say, Thailand’s 290. And Indonesia’s coal production is
likely to continue rising for the foreseeable future. For those two reasons, I believe that
Astra remains a secular growth company.
While there are valid concerns about the massive investments in Indonesia’s electric
vehicle industry, Toyota has a superior product in its hybrids. Given that Toyota is doing
well globally, why would Indonesia be an exception?
Historically, Astra has traded at a P/E ratio of 14x, so the current multiple is certainly
lower than it has been historically, except for the global financial crisis of 2009:
Astra now trades at a record-low valuation multiple. Source: TIKR
In my view, Astra’s closest global peer is India’s Maruti Suzuki. This company also
produces passenger vehicles for a Japanese brand in an emerging market, and
distributes vehicles for that brand, too. In comparison with Maruti Suzuki, I do think that
Astra’s margins look a bit high. Though bear in mind that Astra has different exposure,
with 40% of its earnings from coal mining-related subsidiary United Tractors:
In my updated projection, I adjust for the excess profitability currently experienced by

United Tractors. Here are the assumptions I use for my projection:
A 9% decline in revenues in 2024 on top of another 4% decline in 2025,

representing weaker revenues from coal mining due to lower prices
Gross margins to decline to 22% by 2026 due to operating leverage in the coal
mining business
An effective tax rate of 20% in line with historicals, slightly below statutory
Minorities eat up 21% of net profit from United Tractors and the consolidated
Toyota JV
With these assumptions, I get to an earnings per share of IDR 645 at the horizon, with a
resulting 2026e P/E ratio of 7.6x:
Astra’s dividend payments have been exceptionally generous in the past few years, so
take the headline 10.6% dividend yield with a grain of salt. I’d much rather assume that
the payout ratio reverts back to 45%, which would imply a dividend yield of 5.9%:
My initial report wasn’t on Astra but rather on its parent, Jardine C&C. Citi just wrote
about Jardine C&C, suggesting that it trades at a 30% discount to NAV. But the reality is
that the company has traded at a discount to NAV for many years, and it’s also sitting on
foreign currency debt at a point when the Indonesian Rupiah is likely to depreciate
under the new administration of Prabowo Subianto.
If you take the share prices of Astra International and Jardine C&C in Indonesian Rupiah
terms, you’ll find that Astra is actually trading cheaper than Jardine C&C than it has in
many years. This is the exact opposite situation from three years ago when I thought
that Jardine C&C offered the better value.
Astra/Jardine C&C share price ratio

0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015 Astra/Jardine
C&C share
price ratio
0.01
0.005
0.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
5. Conclusion
Indonesian automaker and heavy equipment distributor Astra International trades at a
meager headline P/E ratio of just 6.1x with a 10.9% dividend yield.
I do think that profits from Astra’s coal mining business remain excessive. I’m assuming
a continued decline in earnings, causing Astra’s P/E ratio to end up at 7.6x. However,
that would still be at a significant discount to the historical level of 14x.
Investors are worried that massive investments into electric vehicles will cause Astra to
lose market share. But I’m not particularly worried since Astra’s Toyota joint venture is
the world leader in hybrids, which remain more convenient than battery electric vehicles.
In any case, the most important catalysts for Astra’s earnings will be higher coal prices
and lower interest rates. None of these catalysts are short-term, but Astra should
continue to do well in the long run.
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8/19/24, 9:21 PM (4) Astra International (ASII IJ) － 2024 update

Astra International (ASII IJ) － 2024 update

Astra’s headquarters in Jakarta. Source: Astra International

2.3. A boom and bust in heavy equipment sales

Here’s my presentation on Jardine C&C from back then:

My key points were as follows:

Jardine C&C’s most important asset is a 50% stake in Indonesia’s largest

My numbers at the time showed a sum-of-the-parts valuation of Jardine C&C

2. Update since my first write-up

Source: Astra International

Jardine C&C (JCNC SP)

Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

Astra International (ASII IJ)

Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

Segment-level numbers provide more details of what’s occurred. Fully-consolidated

2.2. The post-2021 auto sales recovery

An Astra Toyota dealership in Kuta, Bali. Source: Google Maps

In mid-2021, Indonesia’s movement restrictions were eliminated, and auto sales

A full recovery in auto sales from 2020 to 2022

Astra’s market share has actually increased

2.3. A boom and bust in heavy equipment sales

As mentioned earlier, Astra’s 60%-owned subsidiary, United Tractors, is involved in the

bust from 2023 onwards:

In terms of revenues, Komatsu heavy equipment sales decreased -32% year-on-year to

2.4. A series of acquisitions

A nickel smelter in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Source: Adek Berry / AFP

3. What will change for Astra?

“The volatility in coal prices is expected to persist. However, PAMA remains

3.2. Interest rate declines

In the words of rating agency Fitch:

1. A marked increase in Fed easing expectations

2. Evidence of pro-growth policies under the government of new President Prabowo

Indonesia consumer price inflation. Source: Trading Economics

3.3. Electrification of vehicles

3.4. Indian and Chinese demand for coal is rising

Source: Global Energy Monitor

Global coal growth capex in US$ billions. Source: Trader Ferg

Astra now trades at a record-low valuation multiple. Source: TIKR

In my updated projection, I adjust for the excess profitability currently experienced by

A 9% decline in revenues in 2024 on top of another 4% decline in 2025,

Astra/Jardine C&C share price ratio

Get the data • Created with Datawrapper

Was this post helpful? (5 = very helpful, 1 = not helpful

7 VOTES · POLL CLOSED

© 2024 Delante Media Pte Ltd ∙ Publisher Terms

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