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    ST314 Analysis 1

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    ST314 Analysis 1

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    3 views3 pages

    ST314 Analysis 1

    Uploaded by

    srsti.architects

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    ST314 Data Analysis #1 – Summer 2021

    Topics:

    • Discrete Random Variables, Probability Mass Functions, Expectations.


    • Lessons Covered: 1 - 7
    • Textbook Chapter (Optional) : 2 and 3

    Grading:

    • Points are listed next to each question and should total 20 points overall.
    • View feedback in Gradescope.
    • Late assignments are not graded, but we will drop the two lowest data analysis scores.

    Deadlines:

    • Due Monday of Week 2 by 11:59PM - Returned with feedback by following Saturday.

    Instructions:

    • Download or view questions below.


    • Clearly label and type answers, without question prompts, in word, google docs, PDF, or other word
    processing software.
    • Insert diagrams or plots as a picture in an appropriate location.
    • Math Formulas need to be typed with Math Type, LateX, or clearly using key board symbols such as +, -. *,
    /, sqrt() and ^
    • Submit assignment. Verify the correct document has been uploaded. If not, resubmit. You can submit up to
    three times.

    Allowances:

    • Any resources listed or posted in our class.


    • You are encouraged to discuss the problems with other students, the instructor and TAs, however, all work
    must be your own words. Duplicate wording will be considered plagiarism.
    • Outside Resources need to be cited. Websites such as chegg, coursehero, koofers are discouraged, but if
    used need to be cited and used within the boundaries of academic honesty.
    Part 1. (4 points) For each random variable:
    • (0.5 point) State whether the random variable should be modeled with a Binomial distribution or a Poisson
    distribution.
    • (0.5 point) Explain your reasoning.
    • (0.5 points) State the parameter values that describe the distribution.
    • (0.5 points) Give the specific probability mass function.

    Random Variable 1. A manufacturer of copper wire knows the number of flaws on a certain type of wire has a
    discrete probability distribution with an average of 3 flaw per millimeter. What type of distribution is appropriate
    to model this random variable?

    Random Variable 2. A study on Occupational Outlook reported that 7% of all plumbers employed in the industry
    are women. Suppose a random sample of 12 plumbers was obtained, the random variable X is the number of
    plumbers that are women from the sample. Each plumber in the sample is identified as either a woman or not a
    woman. Whether an individual identifies as a woman is independent among those sampled.

    Part 2: (4 points) Powerball is a game played with the Oregon Lottery. Every Wednesday and Saturday at 7:59
    PM PT, Powerball numbers are drawn from two sets of numbers. Five white balls are drawn from one set of 69
    numbered balls. One red power ball is drawn from a second set of 26 numbered balls. You only win the jackpot
    when you match all 5 numbers AND the Powerball. You also win lower amounts when you match the
    Powerball, three or more white balls, or a combination of white balls and the Powerball.

    Disclaimer: This activity is designed to encourage you, as the consumer, to be aware of probability and how it
    might affect you in a practical way. The purpose is not to speak for or against the Oregon Lottery. Cheers!

    On the Oregon Lottery website (link), they ask:


    What would you do with a Powerball jackpot? It’s time to dream big!
    Let’s use what we know about probability to see how likely it is that we “win big”, or at all.
    But first… let’s play!

    Instructions:
    1. Download the script, Lottery.R from the Data Analysis 1 page in Canvas. Open the script in R. Comments
    are written after the “pound sign” or “hashtag”, #. Read this to gather information on commands.
    2. Choose 5 numbers from 1 – 69. The numbers are your white balls.
    3. Choose your Powerball number from 1 – 26.

    a. (0.5 points) What numbers did you choose?


    b. (0.5 points) What were the Powerball numbers from R? That is FIRST_FIVE and POWER_BALL.
    c. (0.5 points) Did you win?
    d. (2 points) Follow the R script to simulate playing Powerball 10000 times. From R, give the table of
    outcomes and paste the plot of the outcomes.
    e. (0.5 point) Each ticket costs $2, what was your net winnings? Net = Profit – Cost
    f. (For kicks and giggles) Maybe we just didn’t play enough… in line 79 increase 10000 to 100000 or more,
    re-run all lines from 74 to 120 in the script. Did you get lucky?
    Part 3. (6 points) The probability of winning the Jackpot, comes from the probability of the intersection
    between guessing all 5 white balls correctly (5 of 5) AND guessing the Powerball (PB).

    5 64 1 25
    ( )( ) ( )( ) 1
    𝑃(𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑝𝑜𝑡) = 𝑃(5 𝑜𝑓 5 ∩ 𝑃𝐵) = 5 0 × 1 0 =
    69 26 292201338
    ( ) ( )
    5 1

    a. (1 point) What do we know about the events “All 5 of 5” and “PB” that allows us to multiply these events to
    find their intersection?
    b. (2 points) Use the above equation as a guide to find the expression for the exact probability of winning
    $50000, which comes from matching 4 out of the 5 white balls and the Powerball. Show the expression.
    Then solve. 𝑃(4 𝑜𝑓 5 ∩ 𝑃𝐵) =
    c. (3 points) Use the above equation as a guide to find the expression for the probability of not winning. Which
    comes from matching none of the white balls nor the Powerball, matching 1 white ball but not the
    Powerball, OR matching 2 white balls but not the Powerball. Show the expression. Then solve.

    Part 4: (6 points) Are you still dreaming big? Perhaps you feel a little
    disheartened. In all fairness, the Oregon Lottery website does list all
    the odds of winning. See to the right or see link under “Did I win?”
    (Ignore Power Play). Consider X to be the amount in money won. X is
    discrete random variable. From the odds displayed on the website, we
    can construct the probability mass function for X. Curiously, not in the
    list, is the odds of losing.
    a. (1 point) Simplify the probability mass function values below.
    Round them to 9 decimal places.
    b. (1 point) Use the complement to find P(X = $0) the chance of
    losing. How does this compare to your calculated probability from
    Part 3? How does it compare to the number of times use lost in the
    simulation of Part 2?
    c. (0.5 points) Compare your calculate probability for winning $50000, to the odds provided by the Oregon
    Lottery. Are they the same?
    d. (2 points) Use the pmf to solve for E(X). Note: When I wrote this the Jackpot was worth $25,000,000.
    e. (1 point) The net profit, per ticket, for the Oregon Lottery is the random variable Y, a linear combination of
    X. Given Y = $2 – X, what is the expected net profit, per ticket, for the Oregon Lottery? E(Y) =
    f. (0.5 points) To guarantee a Jackpot, 292201338 unique tickets need to be sold. Suppose this were to happen
    during this round of Powerball. After all winnings are paid (including the Jackpot), what can the Oregon
    Lottery expect to profit in this round of Powerball?

    x $0 $4 $7 $100 $50,000 $1,000,000 Jackpot


    P(X = x) 1/91.97775 1/701.3281 1/14494.1140 1/913129.1813 1/11688053.52 1/292201338
    +1/38.3239 +1/579.7646

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