Plant Disease Forecasting

K. M. Golam Dastogeer
PhD (Murdoch). Postdoc (TUAT Japan & UC Berkeley)

Professor and Head

Department of Plant Pathology
Microbiome Research Lab
Bangladesh Agricultural University

http://researcherslinks.com/current
-issues/Plant-Disease-Epidemiology-
Disease/6/9/1390/html
Objective
• Students will master the concept, significance, and methodologies of
plant disease forecasting, showcasing a comprehensive understanding
of key factors, empirical and fundamental approaches, diverse
forecasting models, and the organizational roles involved in effective
implementation.
Learning outcomes:

1. Explain the concept and significance of plant disease forecasting for effective
disease management in agriculture.
2. Identify the key factors and data requirements essential for successful plant
disease forecasting.
3. Differentiate between empirical (data-based) and fundamental (process-based)
approaches in plant disease forecasting, understanding the strengths and
limitations of each.
4. Explain forecasting models, including rule-based, mathematical, statistical,
computer simulation, machine learning, and ensemble models, and understand
their applications in plant disease forecasting.
Learning outcomes:

5. Outline the major steps involved in developing a plant disease forecasting model, including data collection,
model development, validation, and implementation.
6. Identify the key functions and responsibilities of DAE and BAU and other RO in implementing plant disease
forecasting programs.
Lecture 1:
Learning outcomes:

1. Explain the concept and significance of plant disease forecasting for effective
disease management in agriculture.
2. Identify the key factors and data requirements essential for successful plant
disease forecasting.
3. Differentiate between empirical (data-based) and fundamental (process-based)
approaches in plant disease forecasting, understanding the strengths and
limitations of each.
4. Explain forecasting models, including rule-based, mathematical, statistical,
computer simulation, machine learning, and ensemble models, and understand
their applications in plant disease forecasting.
Learning outcomes:

5. Outline the major steps involved in developing a plant disease forecasting model, including data collection,
model development, validation, and implementation.
6. Identify the key functions and responsibilities of DAE and BAU and other RO in implementing plant disease
forecasting programs.
 Plant Disease Forecasting

A scientific process
ØPredict the occurrence and severity
ØSpecific region and crop
ØAnalyze various factors

ØProvide farmers with timely and

accurate information

ØPrevent or mitigate crop losses

Why Is Forecasting Necessary ?

Economic-
o reduces the economic impact of plant diseases
o reduces the cost of disease control
Safety-
o minimize the use of pesticides and fungicides.
o reduce the exposure to harmful chemicals.
o avoid the phototoxic effects of pesticides.
Justified use of pesticides-
Why Is Forecasting Necessary ?

Economic-
o reduces the economic impact of plant diseases
o reduces the cost of disease control
Safety-
o minimize the use of pesticides and fungicides.
o reduce the exposure to harmful chemicals.
o avoid the phototoxic effects of pesticides.
Justified use of pesticides-

By minimizing the use of pesticides and fungicides, farmers can reduce the impact
of agriculture on the environment to maintain a healthy ecosystem
Why Is Forecasting Necessary ?

Economic-
o reduces the economic impact of plant diseases
o reduces the cost of disease control EQ1: "Plant disease
forecasting promotes
Safety-
ecosystem
o minimize the use of pesticides and fungicides. sustainability." Explain
o reduce the exposure to harmful chemicals.
o avoid the phototoxic effects of pesticides.
Justified use of pesticides-

By minimizing the use of pesticides and fungicides, farmers can reduce the impact
of agriculture on the environment to maintain a healthy ecosystem
 Test
• How does disease forecasting contribute to economic benefits in
agriculture?
A. By increasing the cost of disease control measures.
B. By minimizing the need for preventive measures.
C. By predicting disease outbreaks and optimizing the timing of
control measures.
D. By promoting the exposure of non-target species to pesticides.

C. By predicting disease outbreaks and optimizing the timing of

control measures.
Requirements for Effective Plant Disease Forecasting

1. Economic significance:
2. Variability:
3. Control measures:
4. Accurate data collection:
5. Reliable disease models:
6. Knowledge of host and pathogens:
7. Access to technology:
8. Collaboration and communication:
Requirements for Effective Plant Disease Forecasting

1. Economic significance:
2. Variability:
3. Control measures: EQ: Why is collaboration and
communication essential in
4. Accurate data collection: disease forecasting and how
5. Reliable disease models: can it benefit different
stakeholders?
6. Knowledge of host and pathogens:
7. Access to technology:
8. Collaboration and communication:
 Information Required for Plant Disease Forecasting

• Spatial distribution
• Seasonality
• Susceptibility
• Photosynthesis
• Facundity
• Stress tolerance
• Age

The disease triangle/ Factors of epidemic

Information Required for Plant Disease Forecasting

• Spatial distribution
• Seasonality
• Susceptibility
• Photosynthesis
• Facundity
• Stress tolerance
• Age

The disease triangle/ Factors of epidemic

 Information Required for Plant Disease Forecasting

• Spatial distribution
• Seasonality
• Susceptibility
• Photosynthesis
• Facundity
• Stress tolerance
• Age

• Virulence
• Dispersal
• Life-cycle
• Ecology

The disease triangle/ Factors of epidemic

 Information Required for Plant Disease Forecasting

• Spatial distribution
• Seasonality
• Susceptibility
• Photosynthesis
• Facundity
• Stress tolerance
• Age
• Temperature
• Moisture
• Rainfall
• Soil
• Time
• Virulence • Human
• Dispersal
• Life-cycle
• Ecology

The disease triangle/ Factors of epidemic

 Plant Disease Measurement

Ø Disease intensity is a general term used to

describe the amount of disease present in a
population.
In a field/plot

Plants Infected Incidence

Ø Disease incidence is the proportion (or
percentage) of plants (or plant units, leaves,
branches, etc.) that are diseased out of the Disease incidence =
total number assessed
 Plant Disease Measurement

Ø Disease severity is the area (relative or

absolute) of the sampling unit (leaf, fruit, etc.)
showing symptoms of disease. It is most
often expressed as a percentage or
proportion.

Leaves LAD 10%

100 10%
100 20%
100 30%
100 60%
100 70%
 Plant Disease Measurement

Ø Disease severity is the area (relative or

absolute) of the sampling unit (leaf, fruit, etc.)
showing symptoms of disease. It is most
often expressed as a percentage or
proportion.

Leaves LAD 10% 20% 30% 65% 75%

100 10%
100 20%
100 30% Leaf Area Diseased (LAD)=…. in a plot
100 60%
100 70%
 Plant Disease Measurement

Ø Disease severity is the area (relative or

absolute) of the sampling unit (leaf, fruit, etc.)
showing symptoms of disease. It is most
often expressed as a percentage or
proportion.

Leaves LAD 10% 20% 30% 65% 75%

100 10%
100 20%
100 30% Leaf Area Diseased (LAD)= 40% in a plot
100 60%
100 70%
 Test
• What is the primary focus of disease severity in plant pathology?
i. The proportion of diseased plants in a population.
ii. The percentage of symptomatic area on the sampling unit.
iii. The percentage of infected leaves on a plant.
iv. The absolute number of disease cases in a field.

Ans: ii
Methods/approaches for data collection for model development for
forecasting/ Forecasting Methods
Approaches and techniques:
Ø Gather data
Ø Analyze patterns
Ø Make predictions about disease occurrence and development

Empirically = there is real world evidence.

Experimentally = there is experimental evidence. it it true

 Forecasting Methods

A. Empirical Method/ Data-based

• Collect and record data from real
field situation.
• Analyzing the recorded information.
• Identify correlations between disease
occurrence and specific weather
conditions.
• Develop model of forcasting.
 Forecasting Methods

B. Fundamental/ Process-
based/Experimental method
• Conduct experiments in controlled
laboratory or greenhouse or
experimental field environments
• Manipulating disease development
factors.
• Gather information.
• Gain fundamental insights.
• Develop model of forcasting.
 Comparison

Empirical Method Fundamental Method

Data Source Field observations, surveys, and historical Controlled laboratory, greenhouse or
records Controlled field trial experiments
Focus Correlating disease occurrence with Studying the effects of certain factors on
factors of epidemic disease occurence
Application Predicting disease outbreaks based on Understanding the fundamental
observed correlations occurrence and interactions between
factors and disease
Strengths Relies on real-world observations and Provides controlled and precise insights
historical data into the effects of specific factor
Limitations Limited by the availability and accuracy of Findings may not perfectly replicate field
field data conditions
 Test
• What distinguishes the Experimental method of plant disease
forecasting?
a) Conducting surveys in the cropped area.
b) Collecting and recording real-world data on disease aspects.
c) Recording weather factors from real-world field conditions.
d) Manipulating plant, pathogen or environmental factors in controlled
environments.

• Ans: c)
Learning outcomes:

1. Explain the concept and significance of plant disease forecasting for effective
disease management in agriculture. √
2. Identify the key factors and data requirements essential for successful plant
disease forecasting. √
3. Differentiate between empirical (data-based) and fundamental (process-based)
approaches in plant disease forecasting, understanding the strengths and
limitations of each. √
 Model Questions
1. How is plant disease forecasting defined, and why is it crucial in
agriculture?
2. What are the prerequisites for effective plant disease forecasting, and
which information is essential for accurate predictions?
3. Compare and contrast the empirical method (data-based) and the
fundamental method (process-based) of plant disease forecasting.
• Do you have any questions