HINDUSTANI KENDRIYA VIDYALAYA

MATHA INVESTIGATORY REPORT

TOPIC: Probability
SESSION: 2024-25

Submitted by: Guided by:

Raktim Saikia Dimpi Saikia

Roll No:

Resgistration No:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:
I express my gratitude towards my guide Ms. Dimpi Saikia for her
extended guidance and support for completion of this project work.
I would give my special thanks to the Principal of Hindustani
Kendriya Vidyalaya , Tezpur for his great support by motivating and
encouraging in every endeavour of ours.
I want to thanks my friends for their contribution and co-operation.
A special thanks to CBSE for the scheme of project introduction to
make students discover their inbuilt abilities.
Last but not least I would like to thank my parents for their love and
support.

Roll No:

Registration No:
CERTIFICATE:
This is to certify that the mathematics project tittled “Probability”
has been successfully completed by Roll no , Registration
no. of class XII in the partial fulfillment of curriculum
of Central Board of Secondary Education(CBSE) in the year 2024-
2025.
The project is genuine and doesn’t indulge in plagiarism of any kind.

Signature of the Guide Signature of Principal

Signature of external
 INDEX

Sl No. Topic Page No.

1. Introduction 1-3
2. Conditional Probability 4
3. Independent event 5-6
4. Baye’s theorem 7
5. Random Variables and 8
Probability Distribution
6. Bernoulli Trials 9
7. Binomial Distribution 10
8. Conclusion 11- 13
9. References 14
 INTRODUCTION

Probability: It means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that

deals with the occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed
from zero to one. Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict
how likely events are to happen.

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur.

Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can
predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e. how likely they are
to happen, using it. Probability can range in from 0 to 1, where 0
means the event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates a certain
event. The probability of all the events in a sample space adds up to
1.

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For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head or Tail, only
two possible outcomes are possible (H, T). But if we toss two coins
in the air, there could be three possibilities of events to occur, such
as both the coins show heads or both shows tails or one shows
heads and one tail, i.e.(H,H), (H, T), (T, T).
Probability theory is widely used in the area of studies such as
statistics, finance, gambling artificial intelligence, machine
learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy.

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 PROBABILITYOFANEVENT

Assume an event ‘E’ can occur in ‘r’ ways out of a sum of ‘n’
probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the probability of
happening of the event or its success is expressed as-

The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is
expressed as:
P(E’)=(n-r)/n=1-(r/n)
E, represents that the event will not occur. Therefore,
now we can say,
P(E) +P(E’)=1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or
experiment is equal to 1.

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Equally Likely Events:
When the events have the same theoretical probability of
happening, then they are called equally likely events. The results of
a sample space are called equally likely if all of them have the same
probability of occurring. For example, if you throw a die, then the
probability of getting 1 is 1/6.

Complementary Events:
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states
that an event will occur or not. Like a person will come or not come
to your house. Basically, the complement of an event occurring in
the exact opposite that the probability of it is not occurring.

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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The conditional probability of ‘A’ given ‘B’ is the probability that

event ‘A’ has occurred in a trial of a random experiment for which
it is known that event ‘B’ has definitely occurred.
It may be computed by means of the following formula:
P(A|B)=P(A∩B)/P(B)
Suppose a fair die has been rolled and you are asked to give the
probability that it was a five. There are six equally likely outcomes,
so your answer is 1/6. But suppose that before you give your
answer you are given the extra information that the number rolled
was odd. Since there are only three odd numbers that are possible,
one of which is five, you would certainly revise your estimate of
the likelihood that a five was rolled from 1/6 to 1/3.

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 INDEPENDENTEVENT

In probability, two events are independent if the incidence of one

event does not affect the probability of the other event. If the
incidence of one event does affect the probability of the other
event, then the events are dependent.
There is a red 6-sided fair die and a blue 6-sided fair die. Both dice
are rolled at the same time. Let A be the event that the red die's
result is even. Let B be the event that the blue die's result is odd.
The outcome of the red die has no impact on the outcome of the
blue die. Likewise, the outcome of the blue die does not affect the
outcome of the red die.
P(A)=1/2regardlessofwhetherBhappensornot. P(B)=1/2
regardless of whether A happens or not. Therefore, the
events are independent.
There are 3 green marbles and 5 blue marbles in a bag. Two
marbles are drawn from the bag at random. Let G be the event that
the first marble drawn is green. Let B be the event that the second
marble drawn is blue.

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Case1:Ghappens
When the first marble drawn is green, there are 7 marbles left in the
bag, and 5 of them are blue. In this case, P(B)=5/7

Case2:G does not happen

When the first marble drawn is blue, there are 7 marbles left in the
bag, and 4 of them are blue. In this case, P(B)= 4/7
The incidence of G affects the probability of B. Therefore, these
events are not independent. In other words, they are dependent.

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 BAYE’S THEOREM

Baye’s Theorem Statement:

Let E1, E2,…,En be a set of events associated with a sample space
S, where all the events E1, E2,…, En have nonzero probability of
occurrence and they form a partition of S. Let A be any event
associated with S, then according to Bayes theorem,
P(Ei│A)=P(Ei)P(A│Ei)/n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek) for any
k = 1, 2, 3, …., n
Baye’s Theorem Proof:
According to the conditional probability formula,
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei∩A)P(A) ⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(1) Using the
multiplication rule of probability, P(Ei∩A) =
P(Ei)P(A│Ei)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(2) Using total
probability theorem,
P(A)=n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(3)
Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in equation 1,we get
P(Ei│A)=P(Ei)P(A│Ei)/n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)

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 RANDOMVARIABLESANDPROBABILITYDISTRIBUTION

A random variable is a real valued function whose domain is the

sample space of a random experiment.
The probability distribution for a random variable describes how
the probabilities are distributed over the values of the random
variable. This function provides the probability for each value of
the random variable. The probability distribution of a random
variable X is the system of numbers
X:x1x2…xn
P(X):p1p2…pn
Where, pi>0,∑𝑛 𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖=1, i=1,2,…, n
Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2, …, xk
occur with probabilities p1, p2, …, pk respectively, the mean of X is
denoted by

The variance of a discrete random variable X measures the spread,

or variability, of the distribution, and is defined by

The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.

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 BERNOULLITRIALS
A random experiment whose outcomes are only of two types, say
success S and failure F, is a Bernoulli trial. The probability of
success is taken as p while that of failure is q=1− p. A random
variable X will have Bernoulli distribution with probability p if its
probability distribution is
P(X = x) = px (1 – p)1−x, for x = 0, 1 and P(X = x) = 0 for other
values of x.
Here,0 is failure and 1 is the success.

Conditions for Bernoulli Trials:

1. A finite number of trials.
2. Each trial should have exactly two outcomes: success or
failure.
3. Trials should be independent.
4. The probability of success or failure should be the same in
each trial.

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 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Suppose a random experiment with exactly two outcomes is
repeated ‘n’ times independently. The probability of success is p
and that of failure is q. Assume that out of these n times, we get
success for x times and failure for the remaining i.e., n−x times.
The total number of ways in which we can have success is nCx. A
random variable X will have a binomial distribution if-
P(X=x)=p(x) =nCxpxqn-x,
for x =0,1, …, n andP(X =x) =0otherwise.Here,q=1–p. Any such
random variable X is binomial variate. A binomial trial is a set of n
independent Bernoullian trials.

Conditions for Binomial Distribution:

1. Each trial results in only two outcomes i.e., success and
failure.
2. The number of trials ‘n’ is finite.
3. The trials are independent of each other.
4. The probability of success, p or that of failure, q is constant
for each trial.

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 CONCLUSION
Applications of Probability

Some of the applications of probability are predicting the outcome

when you:

• Flipping a coin.
• Choosing a card from the deck.
• Throwing a dice.
• Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
• Winningalottery1inmanymillions

Examples of Real-Life probability Weather

Planning:
A probability forecast is an assessment of how likely an event can
occur in terms of percentage and record the risks associated with
weather. Meteorologists around the world use different instruments
and tools to predict weather changes. They collect the weather
forecast database from around the world to estimate the
temperature changes and probable weather conditions for a
particular hour, day, week, and month.
Example

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if there are 40 % chances of raining then the weather condition is
such that 40 out of 100 days it has rained.
Sports Strategies:
In sports, analyses are conducted with the help of probability to
understand the strengths and weaknesses of a particular team or
player. Analysts use probability and odds to foretell outcomes
regarding the team’s performance and members in the sport.
Coaches use probability as a tool to determine in what areas their
team is strong enough and in which all areas they have to work to
attain victory. Trainers even use probability to gauge the capacity
of a particular player in his team and when to allow him to play and
against whom.
Example

A cricket coach evaluates a player's batting and bowling capability

by taking his average performances in previous matches before
placing him in the line-up.
Insurance:
Insurance companies use the theory of probability or theoretical
probability for framing a policy or completing at a premium rate.
The theory of probability is a statistical method used to predict the
possibility of future outcomes.
Example

Issuing health insurance for an alcoholic person is likely to be more

expensive compared to the one issued to a healthy

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person. Statistical analysis shows high health risks for a regular
alcoholic person, ensuring them is a great financial risk given a
higher probability of serious illness and hence filing a claim of
premium money.
In Games:
Blackjack, poker, gambling, all sports, board games, video games
use probability to know how likely a team or person has chances to
win.
Example

When two dices are rolled simultaneously, the outcomes will be as

given below

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 Summary

Probability plays a vital role in the day-to-day life. In the weather

forecast, sports and gaming strategies, buying or selling insurance,
online shopping, and online games, determining blood groups, and
analysing political strategies.

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 REFERENCES

1. NCERT Mathematics – Textbook Class XII(Part–II)

2. Mathematics for Class XII-RS Aggarwal

3. Mathematics for Class XII–RD Sharma

4. Google Scholar Articleson Probability

5. Wikipedia

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