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MATHS INVESTIGATOR REPORT
This is to certify
that Shradha
Suman
Mohapatra(Roll
No
10) and
Anwesha Kar
(Roll No 11),
Class XII B of
Kendriya
Vidyalaya No.1,
Bhubaneshwar
st
(1 Shift) have
successfully
completed
their project
titled
‘Probability’
during the
academic year
2020-21 in
partial
fulfilment of
the
Mathematics
Art Integrated
Project
This is to certify
that Shradha
Suman
Mohapatra(Roll
No
10) and
Anwesha Kar
(Roll No 11),
Class XII B of
Kendriya
Vidyalaya No.1,
Bhubaneshwar
st
(1 Shift) have
successfully
completed
their project
titled
‘Probability’
during the
academic year
2020-21 in
partial
fulfilment of
the
Mathematics
Art Integrated
Project
TOPIC – PROBABILITY
Submitted by- Shivanshu Sharma
Submitted to- Dr. Ravi Bansal
Designation- PGT Maths
BALUNI PUBLIC SCHOOL
AGRA
CERTIFICATE
2024-2025
This is to certify that Shivanshu of
Class XII-has completed
the Maths Project entitled
“probability”himself and under my
guidance. The progress of the
project has been continuously
reported and has been in my
knowledge consistently.
……………………..… ….
………………………….
internal examiner external examiner
Sr.no Topic Pg
no.
1 Introduction 1-3
2 Conditional probability 5-6
3 Independent event 6-7
4 Bayes’s theorem 8
5 Random variables and 9

Probability distribution
6 Bernoulli Trials 10
7 Binomial distribution 11
8 Conclusion 12-13
9 Refrences 14
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my
sincere gratitude to my Maths
teacher,
Dr. Ravi Bansal for giving us
the wonderful opportunity to
do a case study and providing
vital support, guidance and
encouragement throughout
the project. Without his
motivation and help,the
successful completion of this
project would not be possible.
Secondly i would also like to
thank my friends who helped
me a lot in finalizing this
project within the limited time
frame
INTRODUCTION
What is probability?
Probability
means
possibility. It is
a branch of
mathematics
that deals with
the occurrence
of a random
event. The
value
is expressed
from zero to
one. Probability
has been
introduced in
Maths to predict
how likely
events are to
happen
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of
mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a
random event.
The value is expressed from zero to one.
Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict
how likely events are to happen.
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an

event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted
with total certainty. We can predict only the chance
of an event to occur i.e, how likely they are to
happen, using it. Probability can range from 0 to 1,
where 0 means the event that is impossible and 1
indicates a certain event. The probability of all the
events in a sample adds up to 1
For example,
when we toss a
coin, either we
get head or tail,
only two
possible
outcomes are
possible (H,T).
But if we
toss two coins
in the air, three
possibilities of
events to
occur, such as
both the coins
show heads or
both show tails
or one shows
heads and one
tail, i.e. (H,H),
(H,T), (T,T).
Probability
theory is widely
used in the area
of studies such
as statistics,
finance,
gambling,
artificial
intelligence,
machine
learning,
computer
science, game
theory, and
philosophy
For example, when we toss a coin, either we
get head or tail,only two possible outcomes are
possible (H,T). But if we toss two coins in the air,
three possibilities of events to occur, such as both
the coins show heads or both show tails or one
shows heads and one tail, i.e. (H,H), (H,T), (T,T).
Probability theory is widely used in the area of
studies such as statistics, finance, gambling,
artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer
science, game theory, and philosophy.
History of Probability
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the likelihood
of hypotheses given the evidence for them, and on the other
hand the behavior of stochastic processes such as the
throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is
historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while
the mathematical treatment of dice began with the work
of Cardano, Pascal, Fermat and Christiaan Huygens between
the 16th and 17th century.
Probability deals with random experiments with a known
distribution, Statistics deals with inference from the data
about the unknown distribution.
Need of probability
Probability provides information about the likelihood that
something will happen. Meteorologists, for instance, use
weather patterns to predict the probability of rain. In
epidemiology, probability theory is used to understand the
relationship between exposures and the risk of health effects.
How to study?
12th std CBSE probability is basically 3 sections
a) Sample spaces, conditional probability and Bayes theorem
b) Probability distributions
c) Statistics based on probablity distributions.
Do all NCERT questions and Exemplar questions. Then do
past questions. Most exam questions from this chapter are
repeats from previous years, Spades become Diamonds,
Kings become Queens etc.
Hint : Master Probability trees, and after that learn how to
convert probability trees into Bayes theorem answer notation.
Probability of an event
Assume an event ‘E’ can occur in ‘r’ ways out of a sum of
‘n’ probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the
probability of happening of the event or its success is
expressed as-
P(E) = r/n
The
probability that the even will not occur or known as its
failure is expressed as:
P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can say,
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any
random test or experiment is equal to 1.
What are Equally Likely Events?
When the events have the same theoretical probability of
happening, then they are called equally likely events. The
results of a sample space are called equally likely if all of
them have the same probability of occurring. For example, if
you throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6.
Complementary Events
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which
states that an event will occur or not. Like a person will come
or not come to your house. Basically, the complement of an
event occurring in the exact opposite that the probability of it
is not occurring.
Conditional probability
The conditional probability of ‘A’ given ‘B’ is the probability
that event ‘A’ has occurred in a trial of a random experiment
for which it is known that event ‘B’ ha definitely occurred. It
may be computed by means of the following formula: P(A|
B)=P(A∩B)/P(B
Suppose a fair die has been rolled and you are asked to give
the probability that it was a five. There are six equally likely
outcomes, so your answer is 1/6. But suppose that before
you give your answer you are given the extra information
that the number rolled was odd. Since there are only three
odd numbers that are possible, one of which is five, you
would certainly revise your estimate of the likelihood that a
five was rolled from 1/6 to 1/3.
INDEPENDENT EVENT
In probability, two events are independent if the incidence
ofone event does not affect the probability of the other event.
If the incidence of one event does affect the probability of
the other event, then the events are dependent. There is a red
6-sided fair die and a blue 6-sided fair die. Both dice are
rolled at the same time. Let A be the event that the red die's
result is even. Let B be the event that the blue die's result is
odd. The outcome of the red die has no impact on the
outcome of the blue die. Likewise, the outcome of the blue
die does not affect the outcome of the red die.
P(A)= 1/2 regardless of whether B happens or not.
P(B)=1/2 regardless of whether A happens or not.
Therefore, the events are independent. There are 3 green
marbles and 5 blue marbles in a bag. Two marbles are drawn
from the bag at random. Let G be theevent that the first
marble drawn is green. Let B be the event that the second
marble drawn is blue.
Case 1: G happens
When the first marble drawn is green, there are 7 marbles left
in the bag, and 5 of them are blue. In this case,
P(B)=5/7
Case 2: G does not happen
When the first marble drawn is blue, there are 7 marbles left
in the bag, and 4 of them are blue. In this case,
P(B)= 4/7
The incidence of G affects the probability of B. Therefore,
these events are not independent. In other words, they are
dependent.
Bayes’s theorem
Bayes’ Theorem Statement:
Let E1, E2,…,En be a set of events associated with a sample
space S, where all the events E1,E2,…, En have nonzero
probability of occurrence and they form a partition of S. Let
A be any event associated with S, then according to Bayes
theorem,
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)/n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)
for any k = 1, 2, 3, …., n
Bayes’ Theorem Proof:
According to the conditional probability formula,
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei∩A)P(A) ………………..(1)
Using the multiplication rule of probability,
P(Ei∩A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(2)
Using total probability theorem,
P(A) = n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(3)
Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in equation 1,
we get
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)/n∑k=1 P(Ek)P(A|Ek)
RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
A random variable is a real valued function whose domain is
the sample space of a random experiment.
The probability distribution for a random variable describes
how the probabilities are distributed over the values of the
random variable. This function provides the probability for
each value of the random variable. The probability
distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers
X: x1 x2 …xn
P(X): p1 p2 … pn
Where, pi>0, , i=1, 2, …, n
Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2, …,
Xk occur with probabilities p1, p2, …, pk respectively,
the mean of X is denoted by
The variance of a discrete random variable X measures the

spread, or variability, of the distribution, and is defined by
BERNOULLI TRIALS
A random experiment whose outcomes are only of
two types, say success S and failure F, is a Bernoulli trial.
The probability of success is taken as p while that of failure
is
q=1− p. A random variable X will have Bernoulli
distribution with probability p if its probability distribution is
P(X = x) = px (1 – p)1−x, for x = 0, 1 and P(X = x) = 0
for other values of x.
Here, 0 is failure and 1 is the success.
Conditions for Bernoulli Trials:
1. A finite number of trials.
2. Each trial should have exactly two outcomes: success or
failure.
3. Trials should be independent.
4. The probability of success or failure should be the same
in each trial
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Suppose a random experiment with exactly two outcomes is
repeated n times independently. The probability of success is
p and that of failure is q. Assume that out of these n times,
we get success for x times and failure for the remaining i.e.,
n−x times. The total number of ways in which we can have
success is nCx. A random variable X will have a binomial
distribution if-
P(X = x) = p(x) = nCx pxqn-x,
for x = 0, 1, … , n and P(X = x) = 0 otherwise. Here, q=1– p.
Any such random variable X is binomial variate. A binomial
trial is a set of n independent Bernoullian trials.
Conditions for Binomial Distribution:
1. Each trial results in only two outcomes i.e., success and
failure.
2. The number of trials ‘n’ is finite.
3. The trials are independent of each other.
4. The probability of success, p or that of failure,
q is
constant for each trial.
CONCLUSION
Applications of Probability-
Some of the applications of probability are predicting the
outcome when you:
Flipping a coin.
Choosing a card from the deck.
Throwing a dice.
Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
Winning a lottery 1 in many millions
Examples of Real-Life probability
Weather Planning:
A probability forecast is an assessment of how
likely an event can occur in terms of percentage and record
the risks associated with weather. Meteorologists around
the world use different instruments and tools to
predict weather changes. They collect the weather
forecast database from around the world to estimate the
temperature changes and probable weather conditions for a
particular hour, day, week, and month. If there are 40 %
chances of raining then the weather condition is such that
40 out of 100 days it has rained
Sports Strategies:
In sports, analyses are conducted with the help of probability
to understand the strengths and weaknesses of a particular
team or player. Analysts use probability and odds to foretell
outcomes regarding the team’s performance and members in
the sport Coaches use probability as a tool to determine in
what areas their team is strong enough and in which all areas
they have to work to attain victory. Trainers even use
probability to gauge the capacity of a particular player in his
team and when to allow him to play and against whom. A
cricket coach evaluates a player's batting and
bowling capability by taking his average performances in
previous matches before placing him in the line-up.
In Games:
Blackjack, poker, gambling, all sports, board games, video
games use probability to know how likely a team or person
has chances to win. When two dices are rolled
simultaneously, the outcomes will be as given below:-
SUMMARY
Probability plays a vital role in the day-to-day life. In the
weather forecast, sports and gaming strategies, buying
or selling insurance, online shopping, and online
games, determining blood groups, and analysing political
strategies
REFERENCES
1. NCERT Mathematics – Textbook Class XII (Part – II)

2. Mathematics for Class XII – RS Aggarwal
3. Mathematics for Class XII – R D Sharma
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MATHS INVESTIGATOR REPORT

2 Conditional probability 5-6

3 Independent event 6-7

5 Random variables and 9

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an

The variance of a discrete random variable X measures the

1. NCERT Mathematics – Textbook Class XII (Part – II)

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