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MODELLING AND SIMULATION
ASSIGNMENT # 01
BY
Lubna Javed
ROLL #
21021509-104
MATH-406 (MODELLING AND SIMULATION)
BS Mathematics (7’B’)
Submitted To:
Dr Jamshed
Department Of Mathematics
UNIVERSITY OF GUJRAT (HAFIZ HAYAT CAMPUS)
Table of Contents Preface.................................................................................................................................................2 1.Healthcare System Simulation: Patient Flow Model................................................................................4 1.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................4 1.2 Model Description......................................................................................................................4 1.3 Mathematical Formulation............................................................................................................4 2 First ODE: Number of Patients in Admission.............................................................................................4 3.Second ODE..............................................................................................................................................5 4.Third ODE: Number of Patients Discharged..........................................................................5 5.Simulation Setup......................................................................................................................................5 5.1 Parameters.......................................................................................................................................5 5.2 Initial Conditions...............................................................................................................................5 5.3 Time Span.........................................................................................................................................6 6. Simulation in Matlab:.........................................................................................................................6 Treatment (Green Dashed Line):.............................................................................................................8 9. References.....................................................................................................................................8 Preface This assignment, titled Healthcare System Simulation: Patient Flow Model. The assignment delves into the simulation of patient flow within a healthcare facility, which is a critical issue in modern healthcare management. By employing mathematical tools and simulation techniques, I aimed to gain a deeper understanding of how patient admissions, treatments, and discharges can be modeled to optimize healthcare resources and improve patient outcomes.
The healthcare sector faces increasing pressures due to growing populations and the demand for quality care. One of the central challenges is ensuring that the flow of patients through a healthcare system, from arrival to discharge, is managed efficiently without overwhelming medical staff or exhausting available resources. Inspired by this challenge, this assignment utilizes a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to simulate the patient flow and highlight potential areas for system optimization.
Through this project, I explored the application of ODEs in modeling real-life scenarios and learned how simulation tools, like MATLAB, can help visualize complex systems. The insights gained from this simulation underscore the importance of mathematical modeling in decision-making, particularly in sectors like healthcare, where the consequences of inefficiency can directly affect human lives.
This assignment represents not only an academic exercise but also a reflection of the importance of interdisciplinary knowledge, blending mathematics with healthcare management. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to Dr. Jamshed, my course instructor, for his invaluable guidance and support throughout this project. His insights into the world of simulation modeling have greatly contributed to my understanding of the subject matter.
Lastly, I hope that the findings presented in this assignment can serve as a basis for further explorations in healthcare simulations, helping to identify areas where mathematical models can lead to real-world improvements in patient care and resource management. s 1.Healthcare System Simulation: Patient Flow Model
1.1 Introduction This model simulates the flow of patients through a healthcare system, specifically from their arrival at a facility to their treatment and eventual discharge. By analyzing this flow, healthcare managers can optimize operations, improve patient care, and effectively allocate resources. The model consists of three key phases: arrival to admission, admission to treatment, and treatment to discharge.
1.2 Model Description
We will simulate a healthcare system where patients:
Enter the hospital (admission).
Receive treatment (spend time in care). Are discharged after treatment.
The model will be described by three ODEs that represent the changes in patient numbers in each stage over time.
1.3 Mathematical Formulation
The system of ODEs describing the flow of patients through the healthcare system is based on the following assumptions:
1. Admission (A): Patients arrive at a rate λ and are admitted to the hospital. 2. Treatment (T): Patients move from admission to treatment at a rate α, depending on available resources (e.g., doctors or beds). 3. Discharge (D): After receiving treatment, patients are discharged at a rate β, which represents the effectiveness of the treatment process.
2 First ODE: Number of Patients in Admission
The number of patients in admission A(t), changes based on the rate of new arrivals and the rate at which patients are moved to treatment. The ODE is:
dA = λ−αA (t) dt
Where:
λ is the constant rate of patient arrivals (e.g., 10 patients per hour).
α is the rate at which patients are transferred from admission to treatment. 3.Second ODE: Number of Patients in Treatment The number of patients in treatment, T(t) , changes based on the rate at which patients enter from admission and the rate at which they are discharged. The ODE is:
dT =αA ( t )− βT (t ) dt
Where:
αA (t) Represents patients entering treatment from admission.
β is the rate at which patients are discharged from treatment.
: 4.Third ODE Number of Patients Discharged
The number of patients discharged, D (t), increases based on the rate at which patients are successfully treated. The ODE is:
dD =βT (t) dt
Where:
βT (t) Represents the discharge of treated patients.
5.Simulation Setup
5.1 Parameters For this simulation, we will define the following parameters:
Patient Arrival Rate (λ): 10 patients per hour.
Admission to Treatment Rate (α): 0.2 (i.e., 20% of admitted patients are transferred to treatment each hour). Treatment to Discharge Rate (β): 0.1 (i.e., 10% of patients in treatment are discharged each hour).
5.2 Initial Conditions
The initial conditions for the simulation are:
A ( 0 ) =50Patients (initial number of admitted patients).
T ( 0 )=30 Patients (initial number of patients in treatment). D ( 0 )=0 Patients (initial number of discharged patients).
5.3 Time Span
The simulation will run over a period of 48 hours to observe how the patient flow evolves over time.
6. Simulation in Matlab: 7. Graph:
7.1 Interpretation:
Admission (Blue Solid Line):
This represents the number of patients admitted into the healthcare facility over time. The blue line is flat, indicating that the number of patients in admission remains constant at 50. This suggests that the rate of patient admissions and the rate of transfer to treatment are balanced.
Treatment (Green Dashed Line):
The green line shows the number of patients in the treatment phase. Initially, there is a small increase in the number of patients in treatment, as patients move from admission to treatment. After around 10 to 15 hours, the curve stabilizes and flattens out. This indicates that the treatment system reaches a steady state, where the number of patients entering and exiting the treatment phase balances out.
Discharge (Red Dotted Line):
The red line represents the number of patients discharged over time. The discharge curve increases steadily, indicating that patients are consistently being treated and discharged from the system. The linear upward trend suggests that the discharge process is operating smoothly, with a constant number of patients being discharged per unit time. 8. Conclusion
This healthcare system simulation demonstrates the dynamic flow of
patients through a hospital, focusing on three key stages: admission, treatment, and discharge. By solving a system of three ODEs, we can visualize how different parameters (e.g., patient arrival rate, treatment capacity) affect the flow of patients. The simulation reveals potential bottlenecks and resource constraints, allowing healthcare administrators to make informed decisions about staffing and capacity planning.
9. References
1. Banks, J. (2000). Handbook of Simulation: Principles, Methodology, Advances,
Applications, and Practice. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2. Law, A. M., & Kelton, W. D. (2007). Simulation Modeling and Analysis (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill. 3. Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill. 4. Ratti, R., & Veronesi, A. (2017). Mathematical Modelling in Healthcare: Applications and Approaches. Springer International Publishing.
