Pset 8 Assignment

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Problem Set 8

1 EZ Pass 2
B have a β value of 50

EZ Pass 3
C Greater than 95

When there of 5
2 are 6 layoffs instead we get
P X 61 random layoffs of six workers among 33
p
P X 6 2 0.035
39
this is less thanSo unlike the example Ho will
0.05
would be rejected There is little chance for this to be
coincidence
3 i
PA the probability that a purchase occurs after viewing A
PB the probability that a purchase occurs after viewing B

According to Hy
PB 1 25 Pa
Since people see ad A and B with equal chance the purchase
probability can be

P purchase P
I 8171.25 PA 1.125 PA

Using Conditional probability


Plad A 1purchase P purchase page ada
112595A
P ad A 1purchase 0.44
expected observed
Purchasers who saw Ad A 0.444 30 13.3 18

Purchasers who saw Ad B 1 0.444 30 16 6 12

X2 11 1 72 1.63 2.31 2.94


3.37
the X test threshold is 3.84

Since x 2.94 3.84 We will accept Hs under


usual standards
4 n 12 total
jurors Asian American
Pfs ñ attmerEansselecting

Ho there is no discrimination

Under Ho PCN 0 and P X 1


P 01 0.15 0.85 0.85 0.142
12
P X 1 0.15 0.85 a 0.301
12
So P X 1 P X 0 PIX 21 0.142 0.301 0.443

the p value for observing 1 or fewer Asian Americans given


Ho is 0.443 This high p value suggests that this outcome is
not statisticallysignificant evidence of discrimination

5 i u 6 6 1.2

We need to find P score 3.2 or score 8.8

P score 3 2 P Z 3.2 P 2 2.33

P score 8 8 P Z 8 P Z 2.33
26
Since the normal distribution is symmetric
P Z c 2.33 P 2 2.33 0.0099
So P score 3.2 or score 8 8 2 0.0099 0.0198

ii we want to set new thresholds such that

P XCL P X U 0.05

Since L and I are symmetric around 6

PIXEL P X U 0.025
For a standard normal distribution P ZC 2 0.025

2 1.96 distance from mean 0 2 1.96 2.2 2.35

4 8733 2 3552
in we need to find P 3.2C X 8.8

for 3 2
322245 172
2.083

for 8.8 2
8.82
5
32
3.583

p z 1.083 a 0.14
P Z 3.583 a 0.99
P 3.2 X 8.8 0.99 0.14 0.86

for the 10 scores to fall within 3.2 8.8

p 0.86 0.223

6 EZPass 3
D
effemationbe determined from
the
given
EZ Pass 5
B 2.3 to 2.5 minutes
EZ Pass 6
A must exceed 250 but need not exceed 500

7 M 4.4

W X M

for X 0 W 4.4
P W 44 P o 8 10 6 10.45 0.01024

for X 1 W 1 4.4 3.4

PW 34 P X 1 I 10.6 0.474 0.0768

for 2 W 2 4.4 2.4

P 2.4 P X 2 10.6 10.473 0.2304

for A 3 W 3 4,4 1.4

P W 1 4 P 3 5 10.673 0.4 0.3456

for X 4 W 4 44 0.4

P X 0.4 P X 4 0.674 10.4 0.2592

for X 5 W 5 4.4 0.6

P W 0.6 P 5 0.675 0.07776

IE W 0.6 0,07776 0.4 0.2592 1.4 0.3456 2.4.0

0
8 is x̅ Xi 0.9317

5 100567
12,721 5 0.0753

Sx 0.01775
If
99 confidence interval

x̅ 3.291 Sx 0.9317 0.05841


0.873 0.990

ii False Confidence intervals do not represent the


probability that the population mean lies within
a interval for a
specificthat sample rather they
given
indicate if we were to take manysamples and
build 99 confidence intervals for each
iii True Confidence interval width is inversly proportio
to the square root of the sample size
9 i From the penality ranges
Sample mean x̅ 0.932

Sample Standard deviation S 0.0753

Using standard error In


No penality 21 0.0064

35 confiscation 1.6

65 Confiscation 31.0

95 Confiscation 63.86
100 Confiscation 3.6
ii Since there is high probability that the true mean
lies in the
range warranting a 95 confiscation the
as
penalty is statistically supported the data Given
by
this
probability the penalty is not overly harsh
ITT

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