Analysis of Russian-Ukraine Conflict From The Hist
Analysis of Russian-Ukraine Conflict From The Hist
Volume 18 (2023)
1. Introduction
Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict on February 20th, 2014, the tension between
Russia and Ukraine has been increasing, and the conflicts have grown larger in scale every year. The
turning point took place on February 24th, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a “special
military operation” to demilitarize Ukraine. Minutes after President Putin’s order, Russian troops
launched air strikes and sent land forces toward Kyiv and Kharkiv. This paper will discuss the reasons
for the outbreak of the military operation in 2022 and the overall Russo-Ukrainian conflict from the
perspective of Russian history, characteristics of the Russian nation, and Russian nationalism.
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inside the Treaty. Necessary actions can be taken to ensure the safety of the North Atlantic Area,
including the use of armed forces [2].
The Soviet Union also responded to the threat of the Western countries. Soviet Union, together
with its satellite states, signed the Warsaw Pact. The treaty called on the member states to defend any
member attacked by an outside force and set up a unified military command under Marshal Ivan S.
Konev of the Soviet Union [3]. This was seen as a direct counter to the setting up of NATO in the
West.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the West still distrusted Russia because they
would not accept the formation of a new “Soviet Union.” Before 2008, Russia was still seeking
cooperation with the West. Boris Yeltsin and his successor Vladimir Putin focused on retiring
Russia’s global influence. Both Russian presidents sought collaboration with the United States and
other European countries. One of the major successes was the NATO-Russia council. The NATO-
Russia council was set up at the NATO-Russian Summit in Rome on May 28th, 2002. It replaced the
old Permanent Joint Council that was set up in 1997. The NRC is a constitution that focused on
consensus-building, cooperation, joint decision and action. The Russia and NATO member states
work as equal partners to work on achieving common interest [4].
However, the Western countries were still focusing on isolating Russia from the rest of Europe.
NATO was widening its influence on the former Soviet bloc countries to restrict Russia’s influence
in Eastern Europe. The effectiveness of Putin’s foreign policies before 2008 was limited mainly
because he failed to gain sufficient support and trust from the West to restore Russia’s global
influence. After 2008, Putin changed Russia’s foreign policies and deviated from cooperation with
the West. This led to increased distrust between Russia and the West as less information was shared
between the two sides. In the run-up to the 2016 US presidential elections, Russian agents engaged
in a multi-pronged influence campaign intended to undermine public faith in the US democratic
process, denigrate Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential
presidency [5].
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attack on the USSR came on the night of June 21st, 1941, and it came as a surprise despite frequent
warnings from the intelligence services and some foreign politicians.[7] The Führer Adolf Hitler
decided to launch a risky plan— Operation Barbarossa to entirely pull the focus of the battle from the
Western front to the Eastern front. Operation Barbarossa was considered one of the deadliest military
campaigns in world history. The Russian army paid a huge effort to protect their territory. It was
estimated that between 2.7 million and 4 million Soviet military personnel and between 4 million and
6 million Soviet civilians were killed during the whole operation. It is estimated that almost 27 million
Soviets were sacrificed during the Second World War.
The Russian people’s safety concerns were continuously built up as Russia developed. Obviously,
evidence showed how the Russians attempted to strengthen their security. After the end of the Second
World War, the red army “protecting” the cities and civilians in Eastern Europe did not withdraw, as
Stalin promised at the Yalta conference. Instead, Soviet-backed governments were set up that were,
to a large extent, under the control of Russia and Stalin. Before the end of the war, Stalin already
realized that if the common enemy—Germany was removed, the conflict in ideology between Russia
and the West might lead to another war, and he could not accept another invasion of Russia’s
mainland to happen again, so he saw Eastern Europe as a buffer zone. If there were an invasion from
the West, the central government would have time to prepare the Soviet Union to counter the
invasions. This proved that Russians had significant concerns about their safety and would try to
create safety measures even though it might lead to Western opposition.
Russia’s desire for a secure environment can be seen as the reason for the outbreak of the Russo-
Ukrainian military operation. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, members of NATO
and other Western countries were all eager to ensure that the new Russian Republic would not turn
into a new “Soviet Union.” Russian people were deeply concerned about this expansion because they
felt isolated and encircled. The Russians were not allowing the siege to happen as it was a huge threat
to their national security. The Russians took measures to weaken the influence of Western powers.
The five-day conflict between Russia and Georgia signified Russia’s attempt to counter NATO’s
expansion in Eastern Europe. Georgia was sending troops to South Ossetia to prevent it from
declaring independence, and Russia was trying to interfere with the actions of the Georgian army by
launching air strikes and sending ground forces. On August 15th, 2008, the ceasefire agreement
demanded the Georgian troops withdraw from the regions that declared independence, signaling a
major Russian victory. The region that Russia had long been concerned about is Crimea. The Russian
intervention received little response internationally. The European leaders were seeking ceasefire,
which favored the Russian interests, while the US, under the new Obama administration, was seeking
for a restoration of relations with the Kremlin. [8]
Because of Russia’s unique geographical position, most ports were frozen in winter, preventing
the battleships from leaving. This made the Russian navy extremely vulnerable. Russia needed a port
that allowed its fleet to function during winter. Crimea was Russia’s first choice. It is the region that
is directly connected to the Black Sea. Fleets can enter the Atlantic Ocean through the Black Sea and
ensure free deployment to strategic positions. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in
1991, Crimea was considered part of Ukraine’s territory. The Russians’ fear of losing support on the
sea made them annex Crimea. On February 27th, 2014, Russian troops entered Crimea, taking down
strategic sites. Only two months after the Russian operation, on March 18th, 2014, Russia officially
declared that it had incorporated Crimea. Russian troops were sent into Crimea to form a loyal
military in that region. The army was seen as a repressive and managerial tool to govern Crimea. [9]
Russia focused on removing opposition groups and consolidating Russian power. In 2015, Russian
law enforcement took over from the Crimean “self-defense” groups—the Russian-sponsored
paramilitary groups constituting the guerrilla forces of the annexation—in pursuing opponents of the
occupation. Their tactics include imposing harsh sentences for fabricated incidents to make an
example of particular individuals. [9] Russia was able to maintain social stability through strict
control over propaganda. However, Ukraine and NATO would not allow Russia to take over Crimea
this easily. They once condemned Russia for invading Crimea.
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The economic situation inside Russia affected the citizens’ livelihood, and the Russian people
wanted to improve their living standards. Thus, the Russian people favored nationalism as they
believed that Russia should be powerful and they should enjoy a better environment. The military
operation with Ukraine was a step taken by the Russian government to regain its “territories” and
restore power. This is favored by the Russian people as they might think that by restoring the land
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lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia would become stronger, and they would be able
to live in a better environment with a higher living standard.
5. Conclusion
Overall, there are three main reasons Russia decided to launch an invasion of Ukraine. First of all,
the presence of long-term tension between Russia and the West contributed to the increase in the
Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The conflicts between Russia and the West appeared hundreds of years ago
and remained unsolved. After 2008, Russia and the West split increased as Putin changed his foreign
policies. Eventually, the crisis broke out in 2014 due to the disunity between Russia and the West.
Second, the Russian people’s desire for security led to the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis
in 2014. Modern Russia experienced multiple military conflicts with other nations, including the
Napoleonic invasion in 1812, the battle with Germany, the Austrian-Hungarian empire and Ottoman
empire in the First World War, the Nazi-Germany invasion during the Second World War, and the
five-day conflict with Georgia. Russians wanted a secure environment, so they needed to ensure they
could take hold of the Crimea region to allow their fleet to function during winter. To occupy the
Crimea region, an invasion was required.
Last but not least, Russian nationalism also contributed to the outbreak of the crisis between Russia
and Ukraine. Nationalism had existed in Russia throughout history, but it grew particularly strong
after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russian people believed that Russia should be one of the
strongest nations. They also believed that Russian culture should dominate other cultures. They saw
the invasion of Ukraine as a way to demonstrate Russian power and restore the land that was lost after
the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict can be viewed as a trigger that reflected modern Russia’s long-term
problems, and after viewing the factors that pushed Russia towards a current military operation. It
might be possible for Russia and the West to learn more about each other’s interests and make
compromises to prevent more casualties on the Ukrainian battlefields.
References
[1] Larrabee, F. Stephen, et al. (2015) The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis. The
Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States and U.S. Army, RAND
Corporation, pp. 6
[2] NATO-Russia Council. (Access 2023) About NRC. https://www.nato.int/nrc-
website/en/about/index.html
[3] This Day in History. (2020) The Warsaw Pact is formed. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/the-
warsaw-pact-is-formed
[4] NATO. (1949) The North Atlantic Treaty. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm
[5] Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2017) Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and
Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution.
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf.
[6] This Day in History. (2012) Why Napoleon's Invasion of Russia Was the Beginning of the End.
https://www.history.com/news/napoleons-disastrous-invasion-of-russia
[7] Gavrilov, V. (2008) Voyennaya razvedka informiruyet: Dokumenty Razvedupravlenya Krasnoy Armii.
Janvar´1939–1941. Moscow, MDF, pp. 622–714
[8] Dickinson, P. (2021) The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s green light.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/
[9] Klymenko, A. (2015) The Militarization of Crimea under Russian Occupation. Atlantic Council.
[10] Macrotrends. (2023) Russia GDP 1988-2023. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/gdp-
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