Advanced Topics in Project

Management
Introduction to simulation models

Estacio Pereira, P.Eng, PhD

Assistant Professor in Project Management
Department of Civil Engineering
Agenda
• Course outline, syllabus, and objectives

• Introduction to simulation
• Real world systems, their abstraction, and their analysis

• Model types and simulation models

• Types of simulation and examples

• Simulation software/languages

• Areas of application of simulation

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Course Objectives – Learning Outcomes
• Explain the fundamentals of simulation models
• Elaborate a decision support tool using a simulation model to solve a real problem
• Apply LLMs in Project Management
• Develop Presentation Skills

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Class Schedule

• Available on D2L

4
Class Material
• Class information and material will be distributed via D2L:
• Announcements and updates
• Outlines, syllabus, and handouts
• Group Project Submission

• Submit questions or concerns:

• Via email to instructor and course TAs
*Please include ENCI 689 in the subject header.
• I adhere to a 48-h response period for all emails during weekdays. Emails sent on
Friday or during weekend/holidays will be responded on the following business
day.

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Class Material
• Required Textbook:

• AbouRizk, S., Hague, S., and Ekyalimpa R. (2016).

Construction Simulation: An Introduction using
Simphony. Edmonton, Alberta: University of
Alberta.

• *available on D2L

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Next Lecture:

Install Simphony (Available

on D2L)
Grading
Project Generative AI 25%
Project 45%
Exam 30%

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Group Project
• The group project is composed of a presentation and a report/conference paper
• Each group should select a real-world engineering application/system/operation(s) where there is
an identifiable problem to solve and where simulation can be useful in solving it.
• Approximately 10-15 tasks and a minimum of 3 resources shared between tasks
• For the identified problem, students are to write their projects in a format similar to that of the
Canadian Society of Civil Engineers (CSCE) conference.
• Timelines for deliverables are as follows:
• Abstract for selected project is due Friday, February 14
• Conference paper and final simulation model(s) for the project are due Friday, April 11th
• Presentation is due on March 31st, April 4th, April 7th, April 11th.
• Groups of 4 students (project) – Self-enrollment on D2L.

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Group Project – Generative AI
• The group project is composed of a report and a video
• Each group should identify an area where Generative AI can be used in Project
Management – Practical or Educational
• Develop a Prototype using Claude.AI or any other Generative AI tool capable of
generating artifacts.
• Timelines for deliverables will be presented during the course.
• Groups of 2 students (project)

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Background
• Brazil
• Bachelor in Civil Engineering (2001 - 2005)
• Construction Company - Residential Buildings (2005 – 2012)
• M.Sc. in Civil Engineering (2010 - 2012)
• Lecturer – Civil Engineering Undergraduate Course – Brazil (2010 - 2012)
• Edmonton, CA
• Ph.D. in Construction Engineering and Management (2012 - 2017) - University of Alberta - Canada
• Postdoctoral Fellow (2017 - 2018)
• Nottingham, UK
• Assistant Professor in Construction Management – University of Nottingham - (2019 – 2021) – UK
• Calgary, CA
• Assistant Professor (Teaching) in Project Management – University of Calgary (2021 – current)

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Background

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 Copyright Notice

Materials provided in this course are taken from a textbook

currently in preparation by Dr. AbouRizk and Dr Pereira

Please do not copy or distribute any of the course material without

written consent of the author.

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 15

Introduction to
Simulation
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1 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0
Definitions of Simulation
The Encyclopedia Britannica (2014) defines computer simulation as:
“The use of a computer to represent the dynamic responses of one system by the behavior of
another system modelled after it. A simulation uses a mathematical description, or model, of a
real system in the form of a computer program. This model is composed of equations that
duplicate the functional relationships within the real system. When the program is run, the
resulting mathematical dynamics form an analog of the behavior of the real system, with the
results presented in the form of data.”

Simulation in the context of this course can be defined as:

The use of computer software (e.g. Simphony) to represent the dynamic responses of a system
by the behavior of a (Simphony) model made to represent it. A simulation uses mathematical
descriptions, graphical constructs, computer algorithms (as well as other means) that are
generally encapsulated in a simulation software model to represent the real system.

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Definitions of Systems

“A system is a portion of the universe that has been chosen

for studying the changes that take place within it in
response to varying conditions.”
Encyclopedia Britannica, 2014

Excitation System Response

(Input) (Processes) (Output)

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Analyzing and Designing Systems
real-world
system

experiment with experiment with a

actual system model of the system

physical mathematical
model model

analytical/exact/ numeric/approximate/
closed-form solution no closed-form solution

computer simulation
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Definition of a model
A useful definition of a model by Wikipedians, n.d.:

“A model is anything used in any way to represent/abstract anything else.”

Examples of Models:
• Physical Models
• Mathematical Models
• Simulation Model(s)

A simulation model is:

A composition of objects (often associated with graphical notations) that represent an abstraction of a system. The abstraction is
generally in the form of concepts that describe the elements and behavior of a system that are relevant to the model as determined by
the modeller. This collection of objects is used to help us describe the system, study and understand it, and simulate its behavior.

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 21

Types of
simulation
Types of Simulation

❶ Deterministic vs. Stochastic Simulation Models:

Probability/Randomness Dimension
• Stochastic Simulations:
Exhibit randomness.
• Use probability/statistical distributions
• Example is Monte Carlo simulation models

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC

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Types of Simulation

❷ Static vs. Dynamic Simulation Models

Time Dimension
• Dynamic Simulations:
State variables change as time evolves.
• Discrete Event Simulation (DES)
• Continuous Simulation (CS)

• Static Simulations:
No time aspects.
• Some Monte Carlo simulation models (e.g. direct cost estimation,
risk assessment models, etc.)

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Types of Simulation

❸ Distributed vs. Monolithic Simulation

Mostafa Ali, Yasser Mohamed, "A Framework for Visualizing
Heterogeneous Construction Data Using Semantic Web
Standards", Advances in Civil Engineering, vol. 2018, Article
ID 8370931, 11 pages, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/837
0931

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Examples of the different simulation model types
• Monte Carlo-Based Simulation Models
• Static and Stochastic

Work Package Minimum Maximum Impact Distribution

Work Package A $10,000 $25,000 5.0 %

4.5 %

4.0 %

3.5 %

Relative Frequency
3.0 %

2.5 %

2.0 %

1.5 %

1.0 %

0.5 %

0.0 %
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000
Cost

Work Package B $25,000 $50,000 5.0 %

4.5 %

4.0 %

3.5 %

Relative Frequency
3.0 %

2.5 %

2.0 %

1.5 %

1.0 %

0.5 %

0.0 %
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000
Cost

Work Package A $20,000 $30,000 6.0 %

5.5 %
5.0 %
4.5 %
4.0 %
Relative Frequency

3.5 %
3.0 %
2.5 %
2.0 %
1.5 %
1.0 %
0.5 %
0.0 %
$20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000
Cost

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Examples of the different simulation model types
• Truck-Shovel DES Simphony Model
• Dynamic Deterministic

• The arrival rate: λ = A / T = 18 trucks / 60 min = 0.30 trucks/min;

• The service rate: μ = C / T = 15 trucks / 60 min = 0.25 trucks/min;
• The server utilization: U = B / T = 60 min / 60 min = 100%; and
• The average service time per truck: S = B / C = 60 min / 15 trucks = 4
min/truck.
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Examples of the different simulation model types
• Continuous Change Models
• Dynamic Sthochastic

2000

1800

1600

Storage Tank Level (tb)

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Simulation Time (days)

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Key Features in Simulation Software

• An interface (modelling surface, properties, traces)

• A simulation engine

• Modelling constructs
• Flow tokens (entities)
• Templates or libraries
• Other libraries (e.g. math)

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Application of
Simulation in
Engineering
Various stages at which
simulation can be applied:

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Pipeline Design
(Fluid Flow)

• Sample Hydraulic Model

(SMA Consulting Ltd.):

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Traffic/Transportation System
Analysis + Design
• Traffic Simulation (Dr. Tony Z. Qiu, 2010):
• Assessing levels of service (LOS) for traffic
junction, arterials, or freeways
• Micro-modelling of driver behavior: car following
models, lane changing/overtaking models
• Evaluation of impact of traffic system on other
systems or operation (e.g. construction–
earthmoving operations)

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Application of Simulation in Construction
During Design:
• Risk analysis,
• Value analysis,
• Constructability reviews (scenario-based planning),
• Construction plan development,
• Budget development, and
• Estimating.

During/Post Construction:
• Planning and control,
• Continuous improvement, and
• Claims and dispute resolution.

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Simulation Application in Construction
• Tunneling
• Sample project sanitary servicing for a new development
(City of Edmonton)

Stage I

Stage II

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Simulation Application in Construction
• Fabrication Facilities
Pipe Spool or Structural Steel Fabrication Shop Module Yard
Construction Site (Erection)

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Simulation Application in Construction
• Earthmoving
Optimizing Mass Excavation Operations Micro-Level Analysis of
Earthmoving Operations

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Simulation Application in Construction
• Bridge Construction
Construction Method – Site Condition Constrains
Incremental Launching

Scenarios to Investigate – Construction Sequence

Model Layout and Results

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Benefits of Using Simulation
• Information-based decision support:
• Bottleneck identification
• Optimal solutions obtained
• Performance measure generation (e.g. production rates, cycle
times, wait times)
• Scenario comparison

• Standard creation using results:

• Creation of standards
• Recommendation of best practices

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Conclusions
• Gain an appreciation of how to identify problems that are
suitable for solving using simulation-based approaches

• Insights into different types of models and modelling

approaches will affect the way you run models and analyze
results (e.g. deterministic vs. stochastic models)

• Appreciation of other general simulation concepts

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