Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 5, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open in green tracing positive opening in
most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty, amid speculation that global policy
makers will take steps to stimulate economic growth.
Domestic Indices
Globally, US markets showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day
on Monday after ending the previous session substantially lower. The choppy
trading came as traders expressed uncertainty about the outlook for the markets
following last Friday's sell-off. The report, which showed the weakest job growth in
a year, added to concerns about whether the US economic recovery will be able to
hold up in light of the ongoing European debt crisis and slowing growth in China.
Meanwhile, Indian benchmark indices as well as the rupee showed signs of
resilience to global turbulence from the very start of session, as falling global oil
prices and the prospects of a good farm output meant lower fiscal and current
account deficits in the months ahead. Ahead of the central bank's mid-quarterly
policy review on June 18, RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn hinted that there is
now more elbow room to ease monetary policy, spurring some late recovery in
rate-sensitive realty, banking and auto stocks.
S1
PIVOT
R1
BSE Sensex
0.2
Nifty
0.1
6.6
4,848
MID CAP
(0.2)
(12.4)
5,809
SMALL CAP
(0.2)
(14.0)
6,180
BSE HC
(0.5)
(35.3)
6,522
BSE PSU
0.5
33.8
6,698
BANKEX
1.1
AUTO
0.8
67.8
8,748
METAL
(0.6)
(59.7)
9,875
1.2
86.6
7,514
(0.3)
(15.9)
5,536
(Pts)
(Close)
OIL & GAS

BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones
Chg (%)
(0.1)
23.2 15,988
117.9 10,803
(17.1) 12,101
0.5
12.5
2,760
(60.7)
5,260
Nikkei
(1.7) (144.6)
8,296
Hang Seng
(2.0) (372.8) 18,186
Straits Times
(1.7)
(46.8)
2,699
Shanghai Com
(2.7)
(64.9)
2,309
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
1.2
0.5
$42.7
R2
WIT
1.3
0.1
$8.5
0.9
0.2
$28.2
1.8
0.5
$28.1
NASDAQ
Indian ADRs
SENSEX
15,663
15,829
15,915
16,082
16,168
IBN
NIFTY
4,742
4,798
4,826
4,881
4,909
HDB
News Analysis
(Close)
(1.1)
The trend deciding level for the day is 15,915 / 4,826 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,082 16,168 / 4,881 4,909 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
15,915 / 4,826 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
15,829 15,663 / 4,798 4,742 levels.
S2
(Pts)
FTSE
Markets Today
Indices
Chg (%)
Advances / Declines
NTPC commissions Unit 3 (660 MW) of Sipat STPS

Bajaj Auto reports lower-than-expected volumes for May 2012
Hero MotoCorp to invest `2,575cr by FY2013-14
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,204
621
Declines
1,449
842
121
81
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (May 31, 2012)

Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
8,325
6,960
1,365
477
43,938
BSE
1,226
400
857
(457)
(366)
(6,467)
NSE
8,920
MFs
FII Derivatives (June 04, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,153
1,501
(348)
7,801
Stock Futures
1,083
977
106
20,002
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
148
6.9
Jubiliant Food.
Manappuram Finance
22
5.9
Dena Bank
93
5.4
Pantaloon Retail
Shree Cement
Jaiprakash Associates
www.angelbroking.com
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
1,150
(6.7)
Petronet LNG
131
(6.4)
Neyveli Lignite
81
(5.5)
2,490
5.3
Indraprastha Gas
236
(5.4)
65
5.0
Titan Industries
210
(5.2)
Market Outlook
June 5, 2012
NTPC commissions Unit 3 (660 MW) of Sipat STPS

National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd has commissioned Unit 3 (660 MW) of
Sipat Super Thermal Power Station Stage-I on June 02, 2012. With this, the total
capacity of NTPC group has become 38,674 MW. The company targets to add
4,160MW of capacity in FY2013 and has till date added 1,660MW of capacity
since the beginning of the year. At current market price, the stock is trading at 1.4x
FY2013E and 1.3x FY2014E P/BV. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock
with a Target Price of `158.
Bajaj Auto reports lower-than-expected volumes for May 2012

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) reported lower-than-expected volumes for May 2012, led by a
decline in exports (sharply on mom basis) and three-wheeler volumes. Total
monthly volumes declined by 1.8% yoy and 7.7% sequentially to 352,219 units.
Exports during the month plunged by 22.7% sequentially mainly on account of
exports to Sri Lanka (nil during the month as against monthly average of ~20,000
units), which were impacted as the Sri Lankan government raised the import taxes
on two-wheelers. The company, however, expects recovery in the Sri Lankan
market from July 2012. Motorcycle volumes registered modest 1.2% yoy (down 6%
mom) growth to 321,922 units as the segment continues to be impacted by
moderation in demand in the two-wheeler sector. Three-wheeler volumes also fell
significantly by 25.9% yoy (22.8% mom) to 30,297 units. Nonetheless, we
maintain our positive view on the company owing to its diversified business model
and attractive valuations. Further, three new launches (Discover 100cc, Discover
125cc and Pulsar 200cc) in domestic markets are expected to lend volume
momentum going ahead. At `1,492, BJAUT is trading attractively at 11.8x
FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of
`1,835.
Hero MotoCorp to invest `2,575cr by FY2013-14

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) has announced that it will invest `2,575cr by FY2013-14
towards enhancing capacity, acquiring technological expertise and expand into
exports markets. The company plans to set up new plants in Rajasthan and
Gujarat that would boost its overall production capacity to 9mn units from the
current levels of 7mn units across three plants in Gurgaon, Dharuhera and
Haridwar. HMCL also intends to spend `4000cr towards setting up an integrated
research and development (R&D) center in Jaipur. In addition, the company is
looking to set up bike assembly facilities with new partners in markets such as
Brazil, Kenya, Nigeria and Columbia. We believe this announcement is positive for
the company and is on expected lines, as management had already indicated such
intentions earlier. Further, setting up assembly lines in new exports markets will
help HMCL progress towards achieving its goals of ~1mn units by FY2016-17.
The company expects to achieve 25% growth in its export sales in FY2013 to
~2.5lakh units.
Meanwhile, HMCL also approved the merger of Hero Investments Private Ltd
(HIPL) with itself, which would be subject to the approval of the Delhi High Court.
As a result of the merger, the existing shareholders of HIPL, which includes
Brijmohan Lall Om Prakash (BMOP), Bain Capital India Pvt. Investors and Lathe
Market Outlook
June 5, 2012
Investments Pvt. Ltd., will hold approximately 31.04%, 8.58% and 3.71%,
respectively in HMCL. While the merger will increase the free float of the company
by ~12.29%, there will be no change in the financial position and paid-up equity
capital of the company.
At `1,843 the stock is attractively valued at 12.4x FY2014E earnings. Post the
recent correction in the stock price, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with
a target price of `2,221.
Economic and Political News
RBI hints at easing interest rates

Finance Ministry examining raising excise duty on diesel cars: CBEC
Falling oil prices, normal monsoon to help economy: Finance Minister
Corporate News
Coal India asks arms to sign FSA with power units coming up by 2015
Man Industries bags `800cr order to supply pipes to oil and gas sector
Automotive Axles intends to set up new plant in Madhya Pradesh
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Jun 5 2012 12:00AM
Germany
PMI Services
Jun 6 2012 12:00AM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
US
Initial Jobless claims
UK
BOE Announces rates
China
China
Jun 7 2012 12:00AM
Jun 9 2012 12:00AM
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Value
May-12
52.20
52.20
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
May-12
1.00
1.00
Thousands
26-May-12
383.00
378.00
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
9.30
9.80
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
3.20
Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Apr-12
4.90
7.20
Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Mar-12
(3.50)
--
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
(2.60)
--
Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
(0.20)
(0.70)
Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
--
(0.20)
Apr-12
2.60
--
% Change
Apr-12
7.23
--
Apr-12
1.09
0.05
UK
Euro Zone
Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Industrial Production
Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India
RBI Repo rate
8.00
--
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
4.75
--
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
7.00
--
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.00
--
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Apr-12
717.00
--
US
Building permits
Thousands
Apr-12
723.00
--
Jobless claims change
% Change
Apr-12
(13.70)
--
Apr-12
0.25
--
India
Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK
Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK

US
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
FOMC rate decision
Market Strategy
June 05, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
8.0
4.0
2.7
2.5
(3.5)
(6.0)
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
7.2
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
48.0
Oct-11
0.0
Sep-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
Jun-11
52.0
May-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Mfg. PMI
60.0
12.0
Mar-12
(4.0)
Feb-12
1.1
Jan-12
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
(2.0)
3QFY10
3.0
2QFY10
1QFY10
2.0
4.0
4QFY09
5.0
4.1
3.4
Dec-11
5.3
6.0
3.7
Nov-11
6.0
6.2
5.3
6.0
6.1
5.9
Oct-11
6.7
Sep-11
7.0
7.6
7.4
9.5
10.0
8.0
Aug-11
7.5
8.0
8.2
Jul-11
8.5
9.0
12.0
9.2
Jun-11
9.4
May-11
9.8
Apr-11
(%)
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
4.00
May-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
May-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
121
2,348
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
17.3
15.1
3.6
3.1
22.8
22.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
110
183
5,084
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.5
6.0
1.1
0.9
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
296
345
2,526
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.1
9.0
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
81
100
4,105
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.7
6.1
1.2
1.0
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
33
6,678
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.4
8.4
2.1
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Buy
445
514
672
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
8.9
7.8
2.2
1.8
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,492
1,835
43,162
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
12.9
11.8
5.2
4.1
45.0
38.9
1.5
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
301
372
7,002
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.5
11.3
2.6
2.2
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,861
9,429
27,822
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.1
18.8
4.9
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
91
164
311
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.3
2.2
0.4
0.3
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
118
146
10,030
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
16.6
13.2
2.9
2.5
18.6
20.3
1.4
1.1
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,508
1,594
2,505
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.8
11.4
2.8
2.3
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,843
2,221
36,802
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.1
12.5
6.2
4.8
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
75
113
310
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.0
2.3
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
649
793
39,853
34,740
39,263
10.7
11.0
44.9
51.7
14.5
12.6
2.6
2.2
18.9
19.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,068
1,510
30,856
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
12.3
10.6
1.8
1.5
15.3
15.5
0.5
0.4
Motherson Sumi
Buy
158
216
6,134
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.0
11.0
3.0
2.5
23.3
24.7
0.6
0.6
Subros
Neutral
32
192
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.6
6.4
0.8
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
229
312
60,964 191,183 210,301
12.8
12.8
39.4
43.6
5.8
5.2
2.1
1.6
40.4
34.3
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
32
55
1,542
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
6.5
5.9
1.1
1.0
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.1
ABB*
Sell
721
498
15,268
8,760
10,023
6.4
6.4
18.2
20.7
39.5
34.7
5.3
4.8
14.4
14.6
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
278
2,006
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
10.2
9.1
1.7
1.5
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
207
50,678
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
8.8
8.6
1.7
1.5
21.3
18.9
1.0
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
160
221
1,441
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
12.9
10.2
2.6
2.2
21.2
23.8
0.5
0.4
Crompton Greaves
Buy
109
164
6,986
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
10.0
9.3
1.7
1.5
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
38
67
316
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.5
2.9
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
51
73
1,301
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.8
4.2
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,528
2,609
1,722
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.3
7.0
1.6
1.4
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
432
5,152
5,514
5,559
8.3
8.0
29.7
28.4
14.6
15.2
2.7
2.4
20.2
16.9
0.8
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,125
21,116
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
15.9
13.9
2.8
2.5
18.0
19.0
1.6
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
150
23,058
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.8
14.2
2.9
2.6
18.5
19.4
1.9
1.6
India Cements
Neutral
74
2,273
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
7.5
5.9
0.6
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
61
79
748
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.2
3.8
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
136
3,230
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
9.3
8.0
1.4
1.2
15.6
16.0
1.6
1.3
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,384
8,304
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
15.7
10.7
3.8
3.2
21.6
25.8
1.2
0.9
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,402
38,411
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.1
14.4
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
208
273
1,094
2,014
2,293
22.4
22.4
22.6
26.7
9.2
7.8
1.0
0.9
11.4
11.9
2.4
2.7
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
250
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.3
4.8
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
18
1,071
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(9.8)
(22.6)
1.0
1.1
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
114
166
3,772
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
7.6
6.7
1.1
1.0
16.1
15.8
2.6
2.4
ITNL
Buy
172
265
3,343
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
7.8
6.5
1.1
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
40
61
1,059
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
15.7
8.7
0.5
0.5
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
65
98
13,737
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
15.4
12.9
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.7
2.2
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,173
1,553
71,904
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
16.6
15.4
2.5
2.2
16.1
15.3
1.3
1.2
Madhucon Proj
Buy
38
70
280
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
8.2
8.1
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
30
41
761
5,453
6,169
8.1
8.5
1.6
1.9
18.0
15.4
0.3
0.3
1.8
2.1
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
84
587
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.0
5.8
0.4
0.3
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
43
1,425
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
14.8
9.4
0.5
0.4
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
123
199
1,843
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
12.1
10.9
1.9
1.6
17.6
16.3
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
207
316
1,024
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.6
5.9
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Buy
126
147
6,275
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.3
3.0
0.6
0.5
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
108
6,024
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
4.8
4.2
0.7
0.7
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
988
1,476
40,864
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.5
7.1
1.6
1.3
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
678
925
26,551
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.3
4.5
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
334
389
19,138
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.4
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
50
53
2,927
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.3
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
397
493
17,585
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.8
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
75
5,532
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.5
3.7
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
408
468
6,050
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Accumulate
93
107
3,250
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
4.0
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
413
7,053
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.3
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
640
94,563
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.2
16.9
4.0
3.6
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
497
567
116,779
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
17.6
14.0
3.4
2.9
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
790
1,174
90,836
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
11.6
9.7
1.4
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
86
113
10,962
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.3
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
Indian Bank
Buy
160
190
6,872
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
3.9
3.7
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
IOB
Accumulate
82
92
6,504
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.0
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Accumulate
902
952
4,372
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.1
4.9
0.9
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
234
286
11,809
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.6
7.7
1.8
1.5
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
220
262
6,409
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.0
3.4
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
741
1,041
25,125
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.8
4.2
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
2,633
1,440
1,635
2.7
2.5
3.8
4.1
6.2
5.7
1.1
1.1
19.9
18.6
St Bk of India
Buy
2,046
2,469
137,309
68,311
79,649
3.6
3.6
230.4
273.4
8.9
7.5
1.5
1.2
18.2
18.8
Syndicate Bank
Buy
92
126
5,529
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.5
3.1
0.6
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
70
4,683
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.2
4.0
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
192
261
10,576
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.5
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
59
78
2,139
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.2
2.6
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
55
2,748
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.2
4.5
0.7
0.6
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
321
450
11,355
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.5
7.7
2.0
1.6
23.1
23.3
3,685
35,344
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
29.4
24.8
10.0
7.8
38.0
35.4
3.0
2.6
518
650
6,193
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
23.2
18.3
9.5
7.0
45.2
44.1
1.0
0.9
1,136
15,449
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
30.1
26.7
35.9
29.0
129.4
120.1
5.0
4.4
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
102
17,839
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
24.7
20.8
9.0
7.3
39.3
42.0
3.1
2.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,764
11,624
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
26.9
22.4
8.3
6.6
34.0
32.9
3.4
2.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
549
18,698
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.1
20.2
6.6
5.3
31.3
38.4
3.3
2.8
HUL
Neutral
413
89,162
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
29.2
25.2
21.8
17.1
82.7
76.2
3.3
2.9
ITC
Accumulate
230
252
179,980
29,638
34,159
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.9
24.6
21.1
8.0
6.5
35.3
33.8
5.8
5.0
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
168
10,821
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
25.3
20.7
6.8
5.3
30.0
28.8
2.3
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,528
43,652
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.0
30.6
23.3
15.8
73.0
61.6
5.0
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
105
136
6,465
7,011
7,711
9.7
10.0
6.3
7.5
16.7
14.0
1.6
1.5
9.5
10.9
0.8
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
494
560
34,205
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.1
11.5
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.3
Hexaware
Neutral
122
3,609
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.4
11.4
2.9
2.5
23.7
22.5
1.7
1.4
Infosys
Buy
2,388
2,792
137,146
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.1
13.7
3.4
2.9
22.5
20.8
3.0
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
171
1,904
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
10.2
9.2
1.4
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.6
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
120
114
2,141
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
13.4
10.5
2.4
2.0
19.3
18.7
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
74
86
8,761
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
9.9
9.4
1.3
1.2
13.2
12.3
0.8
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
620
2,522
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.5
10.6
2.2
1.8
18.9
17.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Buy
365
433
7,678
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.4
8.9
1.4
1.2
14.9
13.7
0.8
0.7
NIIT
Buy
40
52
668
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.7
4.6
1.0
0.8
16.7
18.4
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
345
1,378
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.3
8.6
1.4
1.2
15.4
14.5
0.9
0.8
TCS
Accumulate
1,213
1,276
237,460
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.2
17.1
5.9
4.7
30.5
27.7
3.9
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
660
725
8,416
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
8.7
8.0
1.8
1.5
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Accumulate
397
430
97,702
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
15.9
13.9
3.0
2.5
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.6
D B Corp
Buy
195
269
3,566
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.4
12.1
3.2
2.7
24.1
24.4
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
109
148
2,562
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
12.1
10.3
1.5
1.3
13.4
13.8
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
88
137
2,785
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.5
9.7
3.9
3.5
34.6
37.7
1.8
1.7
PVR
Neutral
155
402
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.5
9.8
2.0
2.1
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
225
8,863
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
10.8
9.4
2.5
2.1
26.0
25.1
3.1
2.4
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
434
9,225
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.0
7.4
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.1
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
320
353
201,997
68,841
74,509
25.3
25.3
24.1
26.1
13.3
12.2
3.6
3.0
30.4
26.8
2.0
1.7
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
17
27
590
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
6.3
5.2
0.3
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
116
139
48,950
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
7.8
7.0
1.5
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.0
1.4
Hindalco
Neutral
115
22,075
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.8
6.1
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Accumulate
610
663
13,599
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.2
6.9
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Accumulate
263
296
4,415
1,007
1,091
56.6
56.9
29.4
31.9
8.9
8.2
1.6
1.4
19.0
18.2
2.2
1.8
Monnet Ispat
Buy
363
593
2,333
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
6.1
5.4
0.9
0.8
15.6
15.3
1.5
1.1
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
58
54
14,909
8,474
9,024
12.6
16.2
2.6
3.6
22.6
16.1
1.2
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.3
1.3
165
187
65,497
11,959
13,062
78.2
78.6
19.1
20.9
8.7
7.9
2.1
1.8
27.1
24.4
3.4
2.9
SAIL
Accumulate
Sesa Goa
Buy
92
102
37,980
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
7.0
6.3
0.8
0.7
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
178
206
15,435
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.0
4.0
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
89
123
29,943
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.4
4.7
0.6
0.5
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
403
499
39,101 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.5
6.1
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
307
372
58,513
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.0
6.3
1.0
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.6
1.9
GAIL
Buy
320
392
40,528
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.0
8.6
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
254
319
217,438 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.2
7.6
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
693
872
226,812 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.5
9.9
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
48
91
910
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.3
5.3
1.8
1.4
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
106
156
3,074
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
7.7
7.2
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.7
0.6
Aventis*
Neutral
2,093
4,821
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.0
20.1
3.9
3.0
18.6
17.0
3.0
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
716
953
14,661
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
16.5
14.1
4.3
3.4
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
305
379
24,453
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
18.5
16.1
2.9
2.5
16.7
16.8
3.1
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,622
27,493
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
19.4
17.5
4.0
3.4
22.4
21.0
2.7
2.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
49
92
396
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.3
4.3
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,984
16,808
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.1
24.1
7.5
6.5
30.8
29.0
5.4
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
54
82
497
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
7.3
6.1
1.1
0.9
15.9
16.3
0.9
0.7
Ipca labs
Buy
340
435
4,279
2,850
3,474
20.3
20.3
26.6
32.7
12.8
10.4
3.3
2.6
28.2
27.9
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
533
646
23,815
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
18.0
16.5
4.7
3.7
27.0
25.2
2.7
2.2
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
120
178
844
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.2
5.4
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.1
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
489
20,646
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
13.7
16.4
5.1
4.2
43.1
28.1
1.7
1.7
Sun Pharma
Neutral
564
58,133
9,272
11,080
38.6
38.0
22.7
22.6
24.9
25.0
4.2
3.7
17.9
15.6
5.0
3.9
CESC
Buy
266
342
3,318
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
5.9
5.5
0.6
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
59
77
890
1,557
1,573
28.8
28.5
10.4
10.9
5.7
5.4
0.6
0.5
10.4
10.2
1.0
0.9
NTPC
Accumulate
144
158
118,817
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
11.6
10.2
1.5
1.3
13.0
13.5
2.3
2.1
47
78
1,375
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.5
3.7
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.4
2.5
186
31,590
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.4
13.9
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
65
115
2,721
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.0
2.6
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
3.0
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
295
111,894
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
16.5
13.4
1.9
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
76
25,234
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
23.7
16.1
1.8
1.6
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
63
12,962
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
14.8
9.4
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.0
1.6
175
245
1,745
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
9.6
7.9
2.1
1.7
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.4
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,051
7,374
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
30.6
26.3
13.9
11.1
50.9
46.9
7.1
6.0
Finolex Cables
Buy
37
61
562
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
4.8
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
88
124
1,720
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.1
6.3
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
0.9
0.8
Greenply
Buy
213
298
514
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.3
4.3
1.2
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
2,933
3,271
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
29.4
24.0
17.0
13.6
64.2
63.1
3.6
2.8
Sintex
Buy
52
129
1,420
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
3.8
3.3
0.5
0.4
13.1
13.4
0.7
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
255
439
239
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
3.9
3.3
0.7
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Neutral
30
1,436
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(8.7)
12.4
(12.0)
25.3
0.5
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
59
108
368
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.4
6.5
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Goodyear
Buy
320
372
738
1,571
1,753
7.2
8.6
29.8
42.4
10.7
7.5
2.0
1.7
20.2
24.3
0.3
0.2
HEG
Buy
197
242
787
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
8.7
6.0
0.9
0.8
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.0
Hitachi
Buy
114
160
261
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
11.2
7.1
1.4
1.2
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation
Accumulate
2,544
2,674
2,249
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
21.9
18.1
3.1
2.7
15.5
15.9
Ineos ABS
Accumulate
727
777
1,279
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
20.4
15.9
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.2
ITD Cementation
Accumulate
221
236
254
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.1
5.8
0.6
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
MRF
Buy
10,661
13,106
4,521
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
8.0
6.5
1.6
1.3
16.5
17.4
0.6
0.5
Relaxo
Neutral
464
557
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
10.3
8.7
2.5
2.0
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Tata Sponge
Buy
274
420
422
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
4.3
3.8
0.7
0.6
16.1
16.1
0.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
315
462
241
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.4
3.4
1.3
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
Abbott India
Buy
Cera Sanitaryware Ltd

Jyothy Laboratories
Force Motors
373
413
758
628
716
16.4
16.5
29.8
34.4
12.5
10.9
2.2
1.9
18.8
18.6
1.0
0.9
1,407
1,628
2,990
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
23.2
15.6
4.8
3.9
22.0
27.3
1.6
1.3
Accumulate
252
288
319
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
8.7
7.9
1.8
1.5
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Buy
214
268
1,724
1,315
1,568
8.6
11.1
6.4
10.9
33.5
19.7
2.8
2.7
8.4
13.9
1.6
1.3
Buy
437
680
569
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
8.6
7.1
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 04, 2012
Market Outlook
June 05, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

OIL & GAS

(2.0) (372.8) 18,186

NTPC commissions Unit 3 (660 MW) of Sipat STPS

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 31, 2012)

FII Derivatives (June 04, 2012)

NTPC commissions Unit 3 (660 MW) of Sipat STPS

Bajaj Auto reports lower-than-expected volumes for May 2012

Hero MotoCorp to invest `2,575cr by FY2013-14

Economic and Political News

RBI hints at easing interest rates

Global economic events release calendar

Jun 5 2012 12:00AM

Jun 6 2012 12:00AM

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

ECB announces interest rates

Initial Jobless claims

BOE Announces rates

Jun 7 2012 12:00AM

Jun 9 2012 12:00AM

Industrial Production (YoY)

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China

Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India

Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production (YoY)

Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US

Producer Price Index (mom)

Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US

Consumer price index (mom)

Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Jobless claims change

Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK

Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK

FOMC rate decision

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary