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    Foreign Policy Decision-Making

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    This document discusses theories of foreign policy decision-making that focus on domestic and individual levels of analysis rather than systemic or interstate levels. It outlines several models that argue rational choice theory does not accurately capture reality. These include models that emphasize the role of individual psychological factors, multiple actors within states, and bureaucratic bargaining between state agencies. The document also discusses how groupthink and crisis management can lead to suboptimal foreign policy outcomes.

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    Foreign Policy Decision-Making

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    qayoomsohoo
    196 views14 pages
    This document discusses theories of foreign policy decision-making that focus on domestic and individual levels of analysis rather than systemic or interstate levels. It outlines several models that argue rational choice theory does not accurately capture reality. These include models that emphasize the role of individual psychological factors, multiple actors within states, and bureaucratic bargaining between state agencies. The document also discusses how groupthink and crisis management can lead to suboptimal foreign policy outcomes.

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    Foreign Policy Decision-making

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    This document discusses theories of foreign policy decision-making that focus on domestic and individual levels of analysis rather than systemic or interstate levels. It outlines several models that argue rational choice theory does not accurately capture reality. These include models that emphasize the role of individual psychological factors, multiple actors within states, and bureaucratic bargaining between state agencies. The document also discusses how groupthink and crisis management can lead to suboptimal foreign policy outcomes.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    196 views14 pages

    Foreign Policy Decision-Making

    Uploaded by

    qayoomsohoo
    This document discusses theories of foreign policy decision-making that focus on domestic and individual levels of analysis rather than systemic or interstate levels. It outlines several models that argue rational choice theory does not accurately capture reality. These include models that emphasize the role of individual psychological factors, multiple actors within states, and bureaucratic bargaining between state agencies. The document also discusses how groupthink and crisis management can lead to suboptimal foreign policy outcomes.

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    Foreign Policy Decision-Making

    PO 325: International Politics

    Foreign Policy Decision-Making


    The major theories of IR that we discussed in the first section of the class are largely systemic (or global) and, in some cases, dyadic (interstate) In this section, we begin by focusing on explanations that seek understanding of international processes by focusing on the specific attributes and internal processes of states and leaders (domestic and individual)

    Foreign Policy Decision-Making


    Foreign Policies: Strategies used by governments to guide their actions in the international arena Individual and group contributions to domestic level outcomes realism and rational choice theory ignore important state-specific interests, actors, and processes Foreign Policy Process: how important actors within states arrive at and implement international policy Largely Descriptive, But Some Important Theoretical Bases and Explanations

    How are FP Decisions Made?


    Rationality as Applied to FP Decision-Making
    Clarify Choices Order Preferences List Alternatives Explore Likely Consequences Choose Best Outcome While Mindful of Costs Cornerstone of Realist IR Theory

    How are FP Decisions Made?


    However, several decision-making models begin with the notion that rationality is not an accurate portrayal of reality and that, therefore, a realist notion of FP decision-making is flawed

    Whats Wrong With Rationality?




    1. Inapplicability of Rational Framework to Individual Decision-Making (e.g., leaders cant make rational choices) Different goals Individual Psychological Factors
    Misperception/Selective Perception Subconscious Filter Affective Bias Influence of Emotion Cognitive Biases
    Cognitive Balance/Dissonance Justification Wishful Thinking Mirror Image Projection

    Whats Wrong With Rationality?


    2. The Fallacy of the Unitary Actor Assumption (e.g., state decisions are not reflective of unified decision-making) Similar Critique as Liberalism, But more nuanced FP Shaped by internal dynamics of states and societies

    Whats Wrong With Rationality?


    Several Actors are Crucial to FP Decision-Making; International Outputs are the Results of their Interests, Which May Differ Bureaucracies
    Diplomats disagreements with leaders Tensions amongst Bureaucratic Agencies specialization, turf wars, funding Interest Groups lobbying to influence Military-Industrial Complex Public Opinion constraint and approval generation (rally around the flag)

    Whats Wrong With Rationality?


    Decision Structure Affects Outcomes
    Agenda Control Composition of Decision Group

    Further, Group Psychological Factors Can Influence this Decentralized Decision Process Group Psychology Conditions Responses Groupthink Crisis management
    Stress of Crises Leading to suboptimal decision-making

    The Organizational Model


    Organizational Process
    Leaders rely on Standard Operating Procedure, not cost-benefit analysis Low-level officials establish (or rely on previously established) standardized procedures to set the menu of choice for high-ranking officials

    The Organizational Model


    Organizational Process (continued)
    This means that any given international output is not contingent upon reasoned choices made by leaders when facing new situations, but largely on how new situations set into motion plans that were developed for previously foreseen situations (may not be commensurate with situation at hand) Leadership choice is therefore at the plan implementation level Example: World War I Mobilization

    The Bureaucratic/Government Bargaining Model


    FP decisions are the result of pushing and tugging amongst various bureaucratic agencies, and not rational decision-making by executive leaders Bureaucrats tend to see FP situations in light of how they effect the continued existence and well-being of their bureaucracies; their responses to such situations are largely colored by these considerations

    The Bureaucratic/Government Bargaining Model


    As such, bureaucratic outputs may reflect the desires of several bureaucracies to accrue benefits or secure relative ascendancy, not to further national interest
    Budget Maximization Turf Wars over Specific Issues

    From this perspective, even when a bureaucratic consensus on action emerges, leaders ultimately implement options that reflect bureaucratic biases Example: Clinton, DoD, and NATO in Bosnia

    Example of a Psychological FP Explanation - Groupthink


    Groupthink: The implementation of a potentially sub-optimal policy because of the individual psychological need to maintain adherence with overarching group worldview Example: The CIA, the War on Terror, and Iraq

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