Overview of The Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry
Overview of The Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry
Overview of The Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry
NNPC
August 22, 2012
Midstream
Construction and operation of crude oil and gas transport pipelines, oil refineries and gas processing facilities, oil and gas storage facilities and coastal or ocean going tankers, rail cars and trucks for transporting and marketing petroleum products on wholesale basis
Downstream
Construction and operation of pipelines for distributing and marketing petroleum products and gas to small customers, storage tank farm for petroleum products and city gate reception terminals for gas Distribution and the sale, marketing and retailing of petroleum and gas products
Beyond primary use of hydrocarbons, there are significant secondary derivatives that are essential for a modern economy 3
Upstream Sector
License Acquisition
The upstream oil sector refers to the searching for and the recovery and production of crude oil and natural gas. The various stages are as indicated in the flow chart above
Government
Investor Company
Fiscal Terms
Fiscal terms act as the contractual balance between the financial Objectives of Government and the investor Company
($ million)
Joint Ventures
Between International Oil Companies (IOCs) and NNPC Tax Rate of 65.75% for the 1st 5yrs and 85%, thereafter
Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) NNPC is the Holder of oil Licenses IOCs or Indigenous Companies are engaged by NNPC as Contractors Contractor bears the risks and recover cost thru cost oil Taxation is under the PPT Act Regime and is at 50%
Service Contract
Contractor undertakes exploration, development & Production on behalf of Holder Contractor has no title to Oil
Contractor is taxed under Companies Income Tax Act (CITA) on service fees at 30%
380,000 330,000 280,000 230,000 180,000 130,000 80,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
$/bbl
20
0
Construction Cost
The sustained high crude oil price is expected to continue to drive up oil and gas investment in 2012 More E&P activities are likely to be seen as high oil price makes oil projects economics more robust
Steel Market
Labour Cost
High oil prices will allow oilfield service and drilling companies to invest in E&P activities and these activities will contribute to more pipeline and infrastructure activities
More activities are also expected in Unconventional Oil & Gas like Shale and Oil Sands
20
19
138
100 50 0
2005
25 No. of Rigs per day 20 15 10 5 0 1/95
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
20 No. of Rigs per Day 15 10 5 0 1/82
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Oil
Gas
1/97
1/99
1/01
1/03
1/05
1/07
1/09
1/11
1/85
1/88
1/91
1/94
1/97
1/00
1/03
1/06
1/09
1/12
E&P activity has been very low in Nigeria and this is signified by the decline in exploratory wells in recent years Development wells slightly increased in 2010 in order to maintain production levels Focus on most E&P activities in Nigeria have been on finding oil with minimal activity in the gas sector Offshore drilling has been on the increase lately
Source: NNPC, Baker Hughes
12
No. of Fields 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Under Development Onstream Technical Reserves Ceased Production Probable Development Abandoned
800 700 mmboe 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Liquids Gas
2 Fields were discovered in 2011; Etisong North and Tologbene with a cumulative technical recoverable oil & gas reserve of 108 mmboe (mainly Gas) 2011 new discovery is about 44 mmboe lower than 2010 Likewise, in 2012 only 2 reserves were discovered so far; 1 technical and the other probable.
Source: Woodmac
20%
15% 10% 5% 0%
2009
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
Oil Production by Sector 3.5 3.0 2.5 mbd 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 Deepwater Onshore Offshore 12,000 10,000 mmcfd 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
2035 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gas Flare & % Export
2010
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Majority of Nigerias future Oil production is expected from offshore especially the deep water Gas production is anticipated to grow and unless gas infrastructure is developed export volumes will continue to rise Government currently working towards ensuring more domestic consumption by building infrastructures In light of govt. efforts, gas flare will eventually be phased out with time
Source: Wood Mackenzie, NNPC
2020
2010
2011
0.0
Chevron
ExxonMobil
Sinopec
ConocoPhillips
Considerable improvement observed in the Nigerian Upstream Expenditure in 2011 NNPC Capex seems to have declined from $12.7/bbl in 2010 to $11.1/bbl in 2011 Chevron has highest Capex above $26/bbl and OPEX of about $9.3/bbl Average JV Technical Cost has increased from about $23/bbl in 2010 to about $24/bbl in 2011 though there was a $2/bbl decline in Opex while Capex grew by $3/bbl
2009
Capex
2010
2011
South Atlantic
CNOOC Ltd
Petrobras
Oando
Total
Statoil
NNPC
Eni
NPDC
Shell
0.0
$/bbl
15
10.38 9.78 6.51
6.92
2011
T2 ($/bbl)
Production is on the increase, above 102,000bbl/d on the average in 2011 due to assets additions from the divested blocks (Seplat)
NPDC average production cost on the decline $13.43/bbl in 2011 lower than average JV cost of $24/bbl
Midstream/Downstream Oil
Overview of the Nigerian Oil & Gas Industry Midstream & Downstream Oil
Transportation & Conveyance Refinery
Activities in the Midstream/Downstream Oil & Gas Sector Natural Gas Distribution & Marketing
Downstream
Downstream
Downstream
Transportation of Oil & Gas to the Refineries and Gas terminals/ Outlets
2 Refineries in PH, 1 each in Kaduna & Warri Installed domestic refinery capacity is 445,000b/d
Downstream
NLNG with commercial capacity of 22mtpa Brass LNG-FID to be taken before end 2012 Train-7 & Olokola under evaluation Gas Processing Facilities to supply pipeline spec gas.
Distribution of refined products to storage and sales outlets Pipelines belong to NNPC-PPMC MarketingProcurement & Sales of Refined petroleum products Distribution and marketing of gas to commercial customers
Current NNPC Supply & Distribution Infrastructure 5,120 kilometers Of Pipeline Network 21 Petroleum Products Depots 9 LPG Depots Atlas Cove Terminal PPMC Escravos Terminal Bonny Export Terminal MT Oloibiri/MT Tuma
OPHR
(60,000BPSD)
445,000BPSD
1.11
S/Africa
New Refineries
0.81 %
Bayelsa Refinery Kogi Refinery Lagos Refinery
850,725m3
1,202,001m3
CRUDE
PMS
578,238m3
DPK
748,398m3
AGO
750,000BPSD
Downstream Infrastructural Growth Plateaued In The Early Nineties. NNPC Is Re-strategizing To Face Current Consumption Challenges & Preparing For Additional Product Volumes From Envisaged New Refineries
21
Refinery Performance
60 50
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
43.18
38.33 31.8 28 27.8 28.72 21.7 33
42.9
40 30 20 11 10 0 KRPC PHRC
26
12 14.34
17.71
12.7612.2
14.2
WRPC 29.2 44.8 55.6 43.0 33 38.33 51.8 43.18 14.2 42.9
60 50
WRPC
2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000
1Q12 2Q12
NNPC refineries performances increased during the quarter due to reduced incidents of pipeline vandalism & power failure
40
30 20 10 2Q12 1Q12 4Q11 3Q11 2Q11 1Q11 4Q10 3Q10 2Q10 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Provisional figures shows 2Q12 capacity Utilization improved when compared to 1Q12 Average PMS stock increased from 968,805.63Ltrs and 35.72days in 1Q12 to 1,348,431.50Ltrs and 38.53days sufficiency by end 2Q
Source: ERDM Analysis (figures are provisional)
1,000,000
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
Days' Sufficiency
22
Implement a new business model for Refineries Raise Refinery Performance, Financial Value and
Security:
o Improved PMS Yield o Enhanced Supply/Evacuation Management o Improved Operational maintenance and
reliability
70
60
50 40 30 20 10 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
KRPC PHRC WRPC
Calson
Napoil
Nigermed
Nidas
Nikorma
Build large retailer capabilities at point of sale Pilot new products e.g. Lubricants, Aviation fuel and Car
wash etc.
Midstream/Downstream-GAS
Storage
Demand for energy will likely increase 1.2 % per year until 2035 EIA
Piped LTC
Client/Hub
Hydrocarbons will continue to supply at least half of the worlds energy needs over that period Gas has Diverse Portfolio ranging from Storage, piping, transportation, LNG, Power
Gas Commercialization
PowerGen
LNG
Gas commercialization is becoming complex so also are the capabilities required Dearth of skilled technical talent poses threat to Oil & Gas Industry
Transport
1,600
1,400 1,200
1,046
899
265
263
200
Russian Federation Iran Qatar Turkmenistan Saudi Arabia United States UAE Nigeria Venezuela Algeria
Pre-1999
Gas Utilisation Challenge Era (Fiscal Incentives)
1999
NLNG ERA
Post 2005
Demand Explosion ERA (Gas Master Plan)
Nigerian Domestic Gas Sector is undergoing development Nigeria currently exports about 3bcf/d and utilises about 780 mmscf/d) Implementation of Gas Master Plan will mitigate some of the Gas Infrastructure challenges
Nigeria has over 180 tcf of commercial and technical reserves accounting for 84% of total gas reserves in West Africa LNG has been an attractive marketing option for Nigerian gas allowing producers to monetize large volumes of gas at international prices Nigeria LNG has also benefited from tax breaks to encourage investment Domestic gas supply has been limited by the lack of a domestic gas infrastructure and poor commercial framework FGN is currently implementing measures to correct this via two major policies reforms: o Gas and Power Sectors reforms (the Roadmap for Power Sector Reform and the Gas Master Plan) FGN is implementing plans to increase prices for gas sales to the power sector o Gas-to-power prices were set at about US$1.5/mmbtu at the end of 2012 29 o Expected to rise to US$2/mmbtu by the end of 2013
1
Short/Medium Term Gas Availability (Domestic Obligations)
2
Sustainable Commercial Framework
3
Scalable Gas Infrastructure
4
Stimulate Gas Based Industrialization Grow Demand (Gas Revolution)
Reviewed gas prices Developed an Specific focus on and contractual infrastructure Gas to Power framework to sustain blueprint pipelines Entrenched the DSO investment in supply and CPFs concept to stimulate growth supply
In pursuit of Government objectives in developing the gas sector, a focus on the 4 key areas culminated in the Gas Revolution Initiative
30
The Gas Reform is anchored on a robust strategic framework that is focused on maximum economic impact through gas. Aims to drive linkages with agriculture, manufacturing and dispersed small enterprise through Power
GAS TO POWER
LNG
Regional Pipelines
Significantly increase gas supply to the Power Sector Focused delivery plan to support existing and ongoing power plants by PHCN and NIPP Deliver Gas for at least 12GW by 2015
Deliver on Presidents Gas Revolution Agenda to: Position Nigeria as the regional hub for gas-based industries such as fertilizer, petrochemical and methanol Transform gas sector to value adding sector
31
Consolidate Nigerias position and market share in high value export markets Targeted LNG export opportunities Regional gas pipelines that help consolidate nations footprint and influence
Implementation of Gas Master Plan with Pipeline Infrastructure & Central Processing Facilities Domestic Gas Pipeline Expansion; Liquefied Natural Gas Projects (Train 7, OK LNG and Brass LNG - FID to be taken before end 2012) Gas to Liquids & Natural Gas Liquids Projects West African Gas Pipeline Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline Project providing alternative route to Europe thru Algeria
32
Operator
Plant
Status
NNPC/ IPP
Abuja
Pre-Front End Engineering Design Activities ongoing. Power Plant completion date is Q2, 2014
Domestic Gas Infrastructure o Develop distribution networks thru Gas Hubs Response to Government Direct Investment &
Incentives
Kaduna
900
Pre-Front End Engineering Design Activities ongoing. Power Plant completion date is Q2, 2014
Rapidly growing domestic market o Power sector o Gas based Industries Rapidly growing LNG Export Position o NLNG T7 planned, Olokola Plant under evaluation o Brass LNG-FID will be taken before end 2012 Consolidating a regional position o WAGP Project o Continued progress on the Trans-Saharan Gas Project
34
PPPRA
(Price Regulator.
Administrator of PSF)
This structure comprises various institutions and operating entities often 35 with blurred boundaries and non commercial focus
Maximize Oil & Gas Sector value to economy Enhance multiplier effect of Oil & Gas Embark on aggressive exploration to increase Transit from an Oil Industry to an integrated
Oil & Gas Industry
Develop Domestic Gas Market Increase Gas Reserves from 187tcf to 215tcf by 2020 Policy shift towards reducing Gas Flaring Niger Delta: 85% Capture economic value & generate as much Create new industries-Gas would create multiplier
effect (Gas to Power, Manufacturing & Fertilizer Ind.) revenue from Gas as Oil
Implementation of PIB Improve Nigerian Capacity & Local Content Address Environmental issues & Entrench
Global HSE Standards & Principles in the Sector
36
Policy
37
39