Global Warming: Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy The World?

Global Warming
Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?
Introduction
Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?
History of Earths Climate

Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Suns energy output only 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) Much of earths early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)
History of Earths Climate

Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago
Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) Earth went through periods of cooling (Snowball Earth) and warming
Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago
Earths Temperature
Solar
Sun
Energy Solar Energy
Earths Temperature
Sun
Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
Earths Temperature
Sun
Solar
Radiative Cooling
Energy
Earths Temperature
Sun
Solar Energy
Radiative Cooling
Sun
Greenhouse Effect
Earths Atmospheric Gases

Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2) Argon (Ar) Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)
Non>99% Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse <1% Gases
Sun
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature: 860F
Venus
Carbon Dioxide
420 370 CO2 (ppm)
Carbon Dioxide Levels

Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 330 310 40 30 20 10 0 CO2 (ppm)
Dome Concordia
320
270 220 170 600000
Vostok Ice Core
400000 200000 Time (YBP)
Worldwide Carbon Emissions

Carbon (109 metric tons)
8 7 6
5
4 3 2 1
Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel
0 1750
1800
1850 1900 Year
1950
2000
Annual Carbon Emissions

Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average
Carbon (109 metric tons)
0 1955
1965
1975 1985 Year
1995
2005
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels

Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage Increased natural gas usage Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)
Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997 Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming
Past Temperatures
0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 0.4
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
Flat
Decreasing Flat
0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000
Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

Annual Temperatures
22 25
Summer Temperatures
17
Winter Temperatures
21
24
16
20
23
15
Temperature (C)
19
22
14
18
21
13
17
20
12
16
19
11
15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Year
Year
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
-4.1
-4
-2
-1
-.5
-.2
.2
.5
4.1
Past Temperatures Measurement

Proxy a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)
Tree rings Ice cores Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope data Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)
Temperature History of the Earth

Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic
Main Ocean Currents
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earths orbit precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
Orbital Parameters: Precession
Apehelion
Perihelion
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

24.5 22.5
Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity

Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005
Apehelion Apehelion
Perihelion
Not To Scale! to scale!
Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate

Precession (22 ky) Obliquity (41 ky) Eccentricity (100 ky)
Temperature
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the Younger Dryas event 12,900 years ago
Younger Dryas Event

Temperature (C) -30 -35 -40 Ice Age -45 -50 -55 20 15 10 Age (kya) 5 0.30 Medieval Warm 0.25 Snow Accumulation (m/yr) -25 Younger Dryas 0.35
Little Ice Age 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0
Younger Dryas Event

-8.0 -7.5 -7.0 d18O (China) Younger Dryas -34 -35 -36 -37 -38 -39 -40 -41 -42 -43 -44 10 d18O (Greenland)
-6.5
-6.0 -5.5
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0 16
15
14
13 12 11 Age (kya)

Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2C higher than today.
20C higher at high latitudes 1C higher at the Equator
Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes

CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher Increased thermohaline circulation

Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). Increased ocean current exchange
Strong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago

Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C Causes
Increased volcanism Rapid release of methane from the oceans

Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much warmer Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes
Different ocean currents (continental arrangement) higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 30 60

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppmV)
Continental Glaciation (Paleolatitude)
D Carb Paleozoic
Tr
J Mesozoic
Pg Ng Cenozoic
90
400
300
200
100
Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
Recent Temperature Changes
Hockey Stick Controversy

Temperature Change (C) 0.6 0.4
0.2 0
Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999
-0.2
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000
The Problem with Tree Rings

0.3 Jones et al. 1998 Briffa et al. 1999 0.2 Mann et al. 1999 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 1000 1200 1400
Temperature Change (C)
1600 Year
1800
2000
What Influences Tree Rings?

Temperature Rainfall Carbon dioxide concentration
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Temperature Change (C) 2 1 0 -1 -2 800 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002
1000
1200
1400 Year
1600
1800
2000
0.4 Temperature Change (C) 0.2 0.0
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Medieval Warm Period
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6 -0.8
-1.0 -1.2 0
Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008
400
800
1200 Year
1600
2000
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006

Temperature Change (C) 0.6 0.4
0.2 0
2:1 chance of being right high level of confidence
-0.2
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000
Atmospheric Temperatures
0.8 Temperature Cgange (C)
Troposphere
1.5 1.0
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1980
Stratosphere
0.6
0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2
-0.4
-0.6 1980 1990 Year 2000
1990 Year
2000
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

370
CO2 (ppm) Antarctica 320 270 220 31 30 29 28 27 26 025 SST (C) Tropical Pacific
170
600000
400000 200000 Time (YBP)
Consequences of Global Warming
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Land Ocean
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1920 1960 Year 2000 1920 1960 Year 2000
-4.1
-4
-2
-1
-.5
-.2
.2
.5
4.1
Ice Sheets Melting?

GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)
confirmed Antarctica melting Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)
Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass

1000
800
Ice Mass (km3) 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2003 2004 Year 2005
Rise in Sea Levels?

Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic
Changing Sea Levels

20
Global Temperature Change
Relative Sea Level (cm)
10 0 -10 -20 1700
Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Sea Levels for 450,000 Years

20 0
Sea Level (m)
30
29 28 27
-20 -40 -60 -80
-100
26
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
-120
25
Time (KYBP)
SST (C) Tropical Pacific
31
Increase in Hurricanes?
15 SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2) Data Unreliable Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed 10 However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) 5Probably due to higher sea surface August-October temperatures (more Scaled energy) Sea-Surface Temperature Difficult to know if this trend will Storm Adjusted Atlantic Power Dissipation Index 0continue 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
How Much Temperature Increase?

Some models propose up to 9C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C
Wildlife Effects
Polar Bears
Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild
Sea turtles
Breed on the same islands as their birth Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded
Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world
Effect on Humans
Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation
Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
CO2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes

Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
-50
-20
-10
-5
10
20
50
Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad
Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
450
550 650 Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
750
Possible Solutions to Global Warming
Mitigation of Global Warming

Conservation
Reduce energy needs Recycling
Alternate energy sources

Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations

1. 2. 3. 4. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
3b
3a
Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
Global Warming Myths
Global Warming Has Stopped?

0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 0.4 1366.8 Solar Irradiance (W/m2) 1366.6 1366.4 1366.2 1366.0
0.2 0.0
1365.8
1365.6 1365.4
1365.2 -0.2 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning

Carbon (109 metric tons) 10
8
6 4 2 0 Volcanoes Fossil Fuel
Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots

0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sunspots
0.4
0.2 0.0
-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000
Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots

1.5 1.0 0.0 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sunspots
D Mean Temperature (C)
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0 1750
1800
1850
1900 Year
1950
2000
1.0 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Global Warming is Caused by GCR
4600 Gamma Cosmic Rays 4400 4200 4000 3800
3600
3400 3200 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 3000 2010
-0.2 -0.4 1950
CO CO Temperature Sea Level 2 Vs. 2 Vs.

40 6 20 4 Sea Level Relative Temperature 0 2 -20 0 260 -40 -2 240 -60 -4 -80 -6 220 200 180 320 300 280 CO2 (ppmv)
-100 -8 -120 -10
500000
400000
300000 200000 Time (ybp)
100000
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands
-4.1
-4
-2
-1
-.5
-.2
.2
.5
4.1
Mt. Kilimanjaro Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Land Ocean
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1920 1960 Year 2000 1920 1960 Year 2000
Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?

Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports
Changing Sea Levels

20
Global Temperature Change
Relative Sea Level (cm)
10 0 -10 -20 1700
Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
How Much Temperature Increase?

Global warming alarmists propose up to 9C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C
Predictions Vs. Reality

1.5
Annual Mean Global Temperature Change Exponential Increase in carbon emissions
1.0 DT (C)
Moderate reduction in carbon emissions
0.5
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions
Observed temps through 1988
OBSERVED SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C
-0.4 1990 Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Date 1960 1970 1980 2000 2010 2019
Temperature Extrapolation
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 -0.4 1960 1980 2000 2040 2020 Date 2060 2080 2100
DT (C)
Conclusions
Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high better spent elsewhere?

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Global Warming

Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

History of Earths Climate

History of Earths Climate

Energy Solar Energy

Earths Atmospheric Gases

Non>99% Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse <1% Gases

Runaway Greenhouse Effect

420 370 CO2 (ppm)

Carbon Dioxide Levels

Vostok Ice Core

400000 200000 Time (YBP)

Worldwide Carbon Emissions

Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel

1850 1900 Year

Annual Carbon Emissions

Carbon (109 metric tons)

1975 1985 Year

Future Carbon Dioxide Levels

0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 0.4

Recorded Worldwide Temperatures

Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

Past Temperatures Measurement

Temperature History of the Earth

Main Ocean Currents

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

Temperature History of the Earth

Orbital Parameters: Precession

Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity

Not To Scale! to scale!

Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate

Temperature History of the Earth

Younger Dryas Event

Little Ice Age 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0

Younger Dryas Event

Temperature History of the Earth

Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes

Temperature History of the Earth

Temperature History of the Earth

Temperature History of the Earth

A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 30 60

Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580

Recent Temperature Changes

Hockey Stick Controversy

Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999

The Problem with Tree Rings

Temperature Change (C)

What Influences Tree Rings?

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

0.4 Temperature Change (C) 0.2 0.0

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006

CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

400000 200000 Time (YBP)