Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 31 views

    Business Decision Making: Presentation About Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (Cmi)

    Uploaded by

    HaMun
    The document presents three methods for forecasting sales in 2012 for Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (CMI) based on sales data from 2006-2011: least squares regression, additive model, and multiplicative/promotional model. The multiplicative model is recommended as it accounts for changing seasonal variations between quarters, while the additive model simply adds a constant. The multiplicative model forecasts total 2012 sales of £2,460,142, distributed unevenly across the four quarters.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Business Decision Making: Presentation About Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (Cmi)

    Uploaded by

    HaMun
    31 views12 pages
    The document presents three methods for forecasting sales in 2012 for Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (CMI) based on sales data from 2006-2011: least squares regression, additive model, and multiplicative/promotional model. The multiplicative model is recommended as it accounts for changing seasonal variations between quarters, while the additive model simply adds a constant. The multiplicative model forecasts total 2012 sales of £2,460,142, distributed unevenly across the four quarters.

    Original Title

    Presentation

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    The document presents three methods for forecasting sales in 2012 for Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (CMI) based on sales data from 2006-2011: least squares regression, additive model, and multiplicative/promotional model. The multiplicative model is recommended as it accounts for changing seasonal variations between quarters, while the additive model simply adds a constant. The multiplicative model forecasts total 2012 sales of £2,460,142, distributed unevenly across the four quarters.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    31 views12 pages

    Business Decision Making: Presentation About Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (Cmi)

    Uploaded by

    HaMun
    The document presents three methods for forecasting sales in 2012 for Cosmetic Manufacturers Inc. (CMI) based on sales data from 2006-2011: least squares regression, additive model, and multiplicative/promotional model. The multiplicative model is recommended as it accounts for changing seasonal variations between quarters, while the additive model simply adds a constant. The multiplicative model forecasts total 2012 sales of £2,460,142, distributed unevenly across the four quarters.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    You are on page 1of 12

    BUSINESS DECISION MAKING

    PRESENTATION ABOUT COSMETIC MANUFACTURERS INC. (CMI)

    Prepared by: Nguyen Thanh Ha Moon

    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Finding 4. Conclusion & Recommendation

    1. INTRODUCTION

    History Sale
    Quarterly sales, in 1,000s Quarter 2006 1 2 3 4 500 350 250 400 2007 450 350 200 300 2008 350 200 150 400 2009 550 350 250 550 2010 550 400 350 600 2011 750 500 400 650

    This report shows about the estimated sales in 2012 of CMI which be calculated by three methods: least squares method, additive model method and multiplicative/promotional model method, based on the sale data of the last for years.

    2. METHODS
    I used three methods for applying in forecasting the daily sales for 2012 of CMI: Least square regression method Additive model method Multiplicative/Promotional model method

    LEAST SQUARES METHOD


    Forecast of actual sales
    Quarter 1 $000 540.396

    2
    2012 3 4 Total

    550.961
    561.526 572.091 2224.974

    Forecast of actual sales in 2012

    LEAST SQUARES METHOD


    Sales forecast
    900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

    y = 11.686x + 266.89 R = 0.3283

    Actual Sales

    Series1 Linear (Series1)

    10
    Quarters

    20

    30

    ADDITIVE MODEL
    Trend line Final estimate of average daily variation 131.25 Forecast of actual sales ($000) 731.578

    Year

    Quarter

    forecast

    1 2 2012 3 4 Total

    600.328 610.854 621.38 631.906

    -48.75 -141.25 58.75

    562.104 480.13 690.656


    2464.468

    Forecast of actual sales in 2012

    ADDITIVE MODEL
    Sales forecast
    900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

    Actual Sales

    y = 11.8x + 265.81 R = 0.3325


    Series1 Linear (Series1)

    10
    Quarters

    20

    30

    MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL
    Year Quarter
    Trend line forecast Final estimate Forecast of

    of average
    daily variation

    actual sales
    ($000)

    1 2 2012 3 4
    Total

    600.328 610.854 621.38 631.906

    1.33870585 0.88404985 0.62670285


    1.15054085

    803.6626 540.0254 389.4206


    727.0337 2460.142

    Forecast of actual sales in 2012

    MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL
    Sales Forecast
    900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 y = 11.977x + 264.2 R = 0.3384

    Actual sales

    Series1 Linear (Series1)

    10
    Quarters

    20

    30

    CONCLUSION

    In the Least Square Method, we can evaluate the reliability of this method through correlation coefficient of determination (r) r=
    n n x 2 xy x x 2 n y
    2 y 2 ( y)

    2343242762 23452500098002 0.38558 => r20.1487

    231248502769800

    RECOMMENDATION

    The two other methods have results are more reliable. The sales in 2012 have increase and decrease, exactly more than results by Least Square Method, which has only increase in sales. Between additive method and multiplicative method, the result by multiplicative method is more exactly because it has changing seasonal variations, whereas Additive model only adds the number without caring about it. Summary, Multiplicative model will be more reliable, so CMI should use it as forecasting techniques.

    You might also like