Photovoltaic Solar Energy

Futures

Trend Analysis & Extrapolation

A Method Everyone Uses

Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based

on historical data.

Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an

emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us.

Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is
and what its implications might be.

You could first look at historical data

http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm

Trend Analysis & Extrapolation

Trend Analysis & Extrapolation

Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend
forward.
You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes
continue indefinitely?
Are there upper limits to the trend?
What other forces may affect the trend?
At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than
objective extrapolation of historical data.
Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will
continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin
trying to understand the future.
It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with
absurd results.
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm

Trends to Analyze in This Talk

Solar Cells
Market size
Market share
Sales
Units
Power produced
Cost per power delivered

Agenda
The Sun
Solar Cells
Background
How they work
Types

Markets
Costs
Countries
Companies
Questions

Now on with the show

Energy from the Sun

About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface.

The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solar
radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back
to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses.

Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and
this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land
masses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 C.

By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical

energy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossil
fuels are derived.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

Breakdown of incoming solar energy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg

Energy from the Sun

Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption
The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land
masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (10 18 joules) per year.
(70% of incoming sunlight)
(1
Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1 C)
Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ (0.0126%)
Electricity (2005) 56.7 EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target
2002, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.
Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.
The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vast
that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all of
the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and mined
uranium combined.
As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise issues.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

Solar Cells Background

1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the

photovoltaic effect.

Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity

1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor

selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.

1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors,

accidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very
sensitive to light. Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson,
invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful
electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solar
cells with a sunlight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.

1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell

PV Solar for Electricity

Photovoltaics
For the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would be cheaper to
install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid. (The Fund for
Renewable Energy Everywhere)
Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing market
for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than 2 million
villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply, refrigeration,
lighting, and other basic needs, and the cost of extending the utility grids is
prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.
A one kilowatt PV system* each month:

prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined

prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere
keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed
keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the environment
* in Colorado, or an equivalent system that produces 150 kWh per month

http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html

How Solar Cells Work

1. Photons in sunlight hit the
solar panel and are absorbed
by semiconducting materials,
such as silicon.
2. Electrons (negatively charged)
are knocked loose from their
atoms, allowing them to flow
through the material to
produce electricity.
3. An array of solar cells
converts solar energy into a
usable amount of
direct current (DC) electricity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svg

Solar Cells Background

Three generations of solar cells

Solar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates the
order of which each became important.

At present there is concurrent research into all three generations

while the first generation technologies are most highly represented in
commercial production, accounting for 89.6% of 2007 production.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell

Solar Cells Background

First Generation Single Junction Silicon Cells
89.6% of 2007 Production
45.2% Single Crystal Si
42.2% Multi-crystal SI

Silicon Cell Average Efficiency

Large-area, high quality and

single junction devices.

High energy and labor inputs which

limit significant progress in reducing
production costs.

Single junction silicon devices are

approaching theoretical limit efficiency
of 33%. Achieve cost parity with fossil fuel
energy generation after a payback period
of 57 years. (3.5 yr in Europe)

Single crystal silicon - 16-19% efficiency

Multi-crystal silicon - 14-15% efficiency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08

Solar Cells Background

Second Generation Thin Film Cells
CdTe 4.7% & CIGS 0.5% of 2007 Production

New materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost.

As manufacturing techniques evolve, production costs will be dominated by constituent

material requirements, whether this be a silicon substrate, or glass cover. Thin film cells
use about 1% of the expensive semiconductors compared to First Generation cells.

The most successful second generation materials have been cadmium telluride
(CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous silicon and
micromorphous silicon.

Trend toward second gen., but commercialization has proven difficult.

2007 - First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar cells, 5 th largest producer in 2007 and the
first to reach top 10 from of second generation technologies alone.
2007 - Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS technology producing 15 MW.
2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2007 with a production
.
capacity of 430 MW for 2008 in the USA and Germany.
2008 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.

CdTe 8 11% efficiency (18% demonstrated)

CIGS 7-11% efficiency (20% demonstrated)
Payback time < 1 year in Europe

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08

Solar Cells Background

Third Generation Multi-junction Cells
Third generation technologies aim to enhance poor electrical performance
of second generation (thin-film technologies) while maintaining very low
production costs.
Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60% while
retaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques. They can
exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single energy
threshold material, 31% under 1 sun illumination and 40.8% under the
maximal artificial concentration of sunlight (46,200 suns).
Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use of
multijunction photovoltaic cells, concentration of the incident spectrum, the
use of thermal generation by UV light to enhance voltage or carrier
collection, or the use of the infrared spectrum for night-time operation.
Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other concentrators, but cannot use
diffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardware
Multi-junction cells 30% efficiency (40-43% demonstrated)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08

Global Cumulative PV Power

http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf

Global Annual PV Market

http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf

Solar Cell Market Estimate

-- First Generation --

--

SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source Yole Development

Second Generation --

- Third Gen -

Global Annual PV Market Outlook

http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf

Solar PV Market Outlook

by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org

Cost Projections
Grid parity where PV cost
are equal to residential
electricity costs is
expected to be achieved
first in southern European
countries and then to
move north

$/kWh
$1.35
$1.07
$0.81
$0.54
$0.27
$0.13 ---

www.epia.org EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept 08

Cumulative installed solar electric

power by 2007

1st Germany
2nd Japan
3rd US
4th Spain

3.8 GW
1.9 GW
814 MW
632 MW

World's largest photovoltaic (PV)

power plants (12 MW or larger)
Name of PV power plant

Country

DC
Peak
Power
(MW)

GWh
/year

85

Notes

Olmedilla Photovoltaic Park

Spain

60

Puertollano Photovoltaic Park

Spain

50

Moura photovoltaic power station

Portugal

46

93

Completed December 2008

Waldpolenz Solar Park

Germany

40

40

550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe

modules. Completed Dec 2008

Arnedo Solar Plant

Spain

34

Completed October 2008

Merida/Don Alvaro Solar Park

Spain

30

Completed September 2008

17 more
2 more

Spain
Korea

Avg 20
Avg 20

Koethen

Germany

14.75

13

200,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe

modules. Completed Dec 2008

Nellis Solar Power Plant

USA

14.02

30

70,000 solar panels

Planta Solar de Salamanca

6 more Spain, 1 US, 1 Germany

Spain

13.8
Avg 12

n.a.

70,000 Kyocera panels

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations

Completed September 2008

2008

Large systems in planning or under

construction
Name of Plant

Country

DC
Peak
Power
(MW)

GWh
/year

Notes

Rancho Cielo Solar Farm

USA

600

Topaz Solar Farm

USA

550

1,100

Thin film silicon from OptiSolar **

High Plains Ranch

USA

250

550

Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with

tracking **

Mildura Solar concentrator power

station

Australia

154

270

Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells from

Spectrolab**

KCRD Solar Farm

USA

80

Scheduled to be completed in 2012 **

DeSoto County, Florida

USA

25

To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,

completion date 2009.*

Davidson County solar farm

USA

21.5

36 individual structures**

Cdiz solar power plant

Spain

20.1

Kennedy Space Center, Florida

USA

10

* Under construction; ** Proposed

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations

Thin film silicon from Signet Solar**

36

*
To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,
completion date 2010.**

Spain

Blessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spain's socialist

government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource.

In an effort to encourage private individuals and companies to install

solar power, Spain introduced subsidies of 0.42 per kilowatt per
hour ($0.57/KWhr) (feed-in tariff and off-grid subsidies)

But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy in

September, a move which is likely to face opposition from within the
solar energy industry.

2007: 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

Olmedilla Solar Park

60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol with modules from Silikin

http://www.siliken.com/clientes_proyectos/instalaciones/ficha?contentId=572

Germany

10,000 companies, including installers work in solar PV

80 companies are cell and module makers

42,000 employees

Sales were $5.7 B including $2.5 B in exports

The feed-in tariff

2008 German utilities pay $0.47 to $0.68/kWh depending on type
and size of system for new solar systems

Utilities pass cost to consumers Germany average is $1.65/month

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

Waldpolenz Solar Park

The Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200

soccer fields, the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into
the power grid when fully operational in 2009.

In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro ($201 million) plant it will have
a capacity of 24 megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which operates
the installation.

The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses state-of-the-art, thin-film

technology. Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which
350,000 have already been installed. The direct current produced in the
PV solar modules will be converted into alternating current and fed
completely into the power grid.

After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energy
needed to build it, according to the Juwi group.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html

Waldpolenz Solar Park

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html

Waldpolenz Solar Park

http://lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg

United States

2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US market

US leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearly

half the global production

2007 about 50,000 employees

CA dominates with 60% of installed capacity

Various state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Federal

Investment Tax Credits (ITC) are incentives.

Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV costs

to grid parity by 2015

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

Renewable Energy Consumption

in the US Energy Supply, 2007

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html

Chart Data
Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's
Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu)
Consumption
Total US

Share

101.545

Coal

22.776

22%

Natural Gas

23.637

23%

Petroleum

39.773

39%

Nuclear Electric Power

8.415

8%

Renewable Energy:

6.813

7%

Hydroelectric

2.446

36%

Geothermal Energy

0.349

5%

Biomass

3.596

53%

Solar Energy

0.081

1%

Wind Energy

0.341

5%

Of which:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xls

US Solar Industry Data

Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result of
growing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs,
energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of solar
energy has exploded since 2005.

Size of U.S. Market

2008 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity.
1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV),
418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power,
485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems
7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.

Ranking of U.S. Market: Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007.

1st Germany 3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th Spain 632 MW

Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000 individual PV systems were
installed. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected.

Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2008 domestic PV cell manufacturing capacity

grew 65 percent to 685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW. (Results
preliminary) (Source: Greentech Media Research and the Prometheus Institute)
www.seia.org/cs/about_solar_energy/industry_data and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

Nellis AFB Solar panels

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg

GM installs world's biggest

rooftop solar panels
The largest rooftop solar power station in the world is being built in Spain.
With a capacity of 12 MW of power, the station is made up of 85,000
lightweight panels covering an area of two million SqFt.
Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the photovoltaic panels are to be
installed on the roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza, Spain.
General Motors, which plans to install solar panels at another 11 plants
across Europe, unveiled the 50M ($68M) project yesterday. The power
station should be producing energy by September.
The panels will produce an expected annual output of 15.1 million kilowatt
hours (kWh) - enough to meet the needs of 4,600 households with an
average consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third of the GM factory. The
solar energy produced should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.
Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels, said it would be the
largest rooftop solar array in the world.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008

GM installs world's biggest

rooftop solar panels

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008

Japan

2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure stable energy supply,

environmental suitability and use of market mechanisms

By 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes

2008 New research initiative to improve yields from 10-15% to

40% and reduce cost from $0.48/kWh to $0.073/kWh

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

China
2007
National Renewable Energy targets
10% by 2010 (300 MW)
15% by 2020 (1.8 GW)

Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companies

Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companies
Number 1 PV panel producer 1.1 GW
50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei
Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG
82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008

Top 10 PV Cell Producers

Until recently BP Solar was
dominant supplier.
New Top 10 produce
53% of world total
Q-Cells, SolarWorld - Germany
Sharp, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo
Japan
Suntech, Yingli, JA Solar China
Motech - Taiwan

BP Solar

BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2009

Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintain the
systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with no up
front capital cost to the retailer.

Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at Wal-Mart locations in California, and

would work with the retailer to evaluate the potential for additional projects. Expects
to complete the first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within about 18 months.

2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sams Clubs in CA.

Since 1998, BP guarantees its modules for 25 years.

BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a global company with about 2000

employees. With over 35 years of experience and installations in most countries,
BP Solar is one of the world's leading solar companies.

BP is one of the worlds largest energy companies, in more than 100 countries and
over 96,000 employees.

http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025044&contentId=7046577

BP axes 620 jobs from solar business

01 April, 2009 - BP to axe 620 jobs from its solar power business
more than a quarter of that workforce in a move it said was
part of the long-term strategy to "reduce the cost of solar power to
that of conventional electricity.

Two cell manufacture and module assembly plants near Madrid, will
be shut with the loss of 480 posts while module assembly will also
be phased out at its Frederick facility in Maryland, US, with a further
140 redundancies.

BP blamed the cutbacks on the credit crunch and lower-cost

competition saying its global manufacturing capacity would still
increase during this year and next via a series of strategic alliances
with other companies.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/bp-solar

Q Cells SE
1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of silicon solar cells with
19 employees.
By 2009, 2,600 employees (2007, 1700 employees)
Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the world. (since 2007)
Continue to expand production in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany and start
construction of new Malaysian production facility.
Alongside the monocrystalline and polycrystalline (90% of business) core
business, we use a wide range of technologies to develop and produce
thin-film modules. (thin-film - 25% share of smaller market)
2008 Sales $1.69 B

2007 Sales $1.16 B profitable

QCE: Frankfurt exchange

http://www.q-cells.com/en and http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AQCE

Sharp Solar
Subsidiary of Sharp Electronics, Osaka, Japan
Produces silicon solar cells and thin film, leveraging silicon knowledge from
LCD manufacturing
2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square meters of thin-film modules, as
we simultaneously build the world's largest thin film manufacturing complex,
capable of 10 million square meters per year. And this gigawatt-scale factory
is only the first to come. Katsuga City, Nara and Sakai City, Osaka, Japan
Thin film efficiency 9%, expecting 10% from GW factory line.
Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any other solar mfg in the
world. First mfgr to reach 2 GW cumulative production since mass
production start in 1963
Memphis, TN 100 MW manufacturing facility

http://solar.sharpusa.com/solar/solar_thin_film/1,,3-6,00.html and http://www.sharpusa.com/files/sol_dow_ThinFilm_101408.pdf

SunTech Power

BEIJING, Jan 12, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX)

Chinas solar product maker SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.

(STP.NYSE) recently laid off 800 workers or 10 percent of its total
employees and postponed its previous plan on recruiting 2,000 people,
said Shi Zhengrong, chairman and CEO.

SunTech delayed plan to expand production capacity to 1.5 GW in 2009,

which requires 2,000 more employees.

Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal operation with more than
50% capacity running, compared with 85% prior to financial meltdown.

SunTech has received more than 800 MW of orders in 2009 including

650 MW from Europe. 2008 overall orders of 500 MW.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2119252/

SunTech Power

Sales $1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable

Employees: 6784
STP:NYSE
Wuxi, China
Worlds largest silicon cell maker
Average conversion efficiency rates of their monocrystalline and
multicrystalline silicon PV cells 16.4% and 14.9% respectively
10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing plant in US, now
shopping states for incentives

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STP

Kyocera Solar

US Solar Division Scottsdale, AZ

Subsidiary of Kyocera, Kyoto, Japan (KYO:NYSE) $13B 2008

2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City, China to expand
there from 60 MW to 240 MW by 2011. First one in China 03

2012 total production capacity to be 650 MW from Japan, Mexico,

the Czech Republic and Tianjin.

Technology built on knowledge of fine ceramics, with metals,

plastics, and electronics developed for copiers and printers

http://www.kyocerasolar.com/about/

First Solar
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009-- First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq:
FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in
the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier.
2004 Began full commercial operation. Manufacturing capacity has grown to
more than 500 MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to more than 1 GW, the
equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant.
Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing costs.
Manufacturing costs have declined from over $3 per watt to less than $1 per watt.
Further significant cost reductions are possible.
First Solar has industrys first and only comprehensive pre-funded, end-of-life
module collection and recycling program, recycling more than 90% of each
collected module into new products. (A serious issue due to Cadmium-Telluride)
High throughput, automated lines that integrate each production step, from CdTe
semiconductor deposition to final assembly and test, in one continuous process.
This advanced manufacturing process transforms a piece of glass into a
complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.

www.firstsolar.com/

First Solar

Sales $1.2B 2008, $504M 2007, profitable

Employees: 3524
Tempe, AZ
FSLR:NASDAQ

finance.google.com

Motech Industries

Modern Technology for a Sustainable World

Founded 1981, Motech Solar started 1997

2003 Publicly trades 6244: Taiwan Exchange

2008 8th largest manufacturer 272 MW crystalline and multi-crystal

silicon solar cells

Plants in Tianan,Taiwan and Kunshan, China

2008 Sales $691M, profitable

1,331 employees

www.motech.com.tw

Shell dumps wind, solar and hydro

power in favor of biofuels

Shell will no longer invest in renewable technologies such as wind,

solar and hydro power because they are not economic, the AngloDutch oil company said today. 17 Mar 09

Sold US operations to SolarWorld - Germany

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy

SolarWorld AG
SWV: Frankfurt exchange
1,825 employees
Bonn, Germany with production in Freiborg and Sweden
2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had been largest US solar
products maker (fka Arco Solar and Siemens Solar)
Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA
2007 acquired Komatsu silicon wafer production facility Hillsboro, OR
Single and multi-crystalline silicon cells

http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA:SWV

Sun Power
Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor in 2004, spun
out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ
HQs in San Jose and Geneva, Switzerland
12 polysilicon solar cell line in Philippines with capacity 314 MW/yr
Expansion plan for 1 GW capacity by 2010
High efficiency cells: 21-23%
PG&E plans 250 MW facility in CA by 2012
FPL DeSoto Cty 35 MW facility due to open 2009
Nellis 14 MW facility on line
Sales: $1.4B for 2008, $775M for 2007 profitable
Employees: 5,400
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/

SunPower Solar Cell

http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/best-technology/

Energy Conversion Devices /

United Solar Ovonics
ENER:NASDAQ
Rochester Hills, MI
Amorphous silicon thin film process
on stainless steel
Over 20 years, manufacturing
capacity increased from 500 KW to
25 MW/yr
Now 3 miles/day
Sales $255M for 2008, $114M for
2007, slight profit 2008
Employees: 1090
http://www.uni-solar.com

Ovonics Roll-roll Process

http://www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTechnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf

Silikin

Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant share on the Spanish

PV market and has installed more than 160 MW of solar PV energy, =
240 GWh, the electricity consumption of more than 63,595 homes.

Number of employees: Currently 700 people.

Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain and San Diego, CA

Sales: 152 million ($207 million) in 2007.

Peak power manufactured: has become one of the main manufacturers

of PV modules, supplying 92 MW to the market in 08.

http://www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId=1

Some Questions

Will peak minerals (rising cost due to limits in availability) limit

growth of thin film and third generation solar cells?

Will demand growth in China and India limit growth in US?

How about the impact of other national / regional subsidies?

How will financial meltdown impact solar cell business?

What competing technologies would upset the solar industry?

How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd generation solar cells
impact the businesses built on 1st generation technology?