2.0 Engineering Costs and Cost Estimating Rev 2
2.0 Engineering Costs and Cost Estimating Rev 2
2.0 Engineering Costs and Cost Estimating Rev 2
Module Objectives
By end of this module, participants should be able
to : Explain Engineering cost and LCC terminology
Describe different types of cost estimates
Draw cash flow diagram
Agenda Content
Definition of Engineering Cost and cost
terminology
Types of Engineering Cost Estimates
Estimating Models
Basics of cash flow diagram
Interest
The fee that a borrower pays to a lender for the
use of his or her money.
INTEREST RATE
The percentage of money being borrowed that is
paid to the lender on some time basis. The
Compound Interest
Whenever the interest charge for any interest period is based
on the remaining principal amount plus any accumulated
interest charges up to the beginning of that period.
Economic Equivalent
Established when we are indifferent between a future
payment, or a series of future payments, and a present
sum of money .
Considers the comparison of alternative options, or
proposals, by reducing them to an equivalent basis,
depending on:
interest rate;
amounts of money involved;
timing of the affected monetary receipts and/or expenditures;
manner in which the interest , or profit on invested capital is paid
and the initial capital is recovered.
Plan #1: $2,000 of loan principal plus 10% of BOY principal paid at the
end of year; interest paid at the end of each year is reduced by $200 (i.e.,
10% of remaining principal)
Year
Amount owed at
the beginning of
year
Interest
accrued for
year
Total money
owed at end of
year
1
2
3
4
RM8,000
RM8,000
RM8,000
RM8,000
RM800
RM800
RM800
RM800
RM8,800
RM8,800
RM8,800
RM8,800
RM0
RM800
RM0
RM800
RM0
RM800
RM8,000 RM8,800
Plan #3: $2,524 paid at the end of each year; interest paid at the end of
each year is 10% of amount owed at the beginning of the year.
Total interest paid is $2096
Plan #4: No interest and no principal paid for first three years. At the
end of the fourth year, the original principal plus accumulated
(compounded) interest is paid.
10
11
1
1
5=N
Time scale with progression of time moving from left to right; the
numbers represent time periods (e.g., years, months, quarters,
etc...) and may be presented within a time interval or at the end
of a time interval.
12
P =$8,000
5=N
Time scale with progression of time moving from left to right; the
numbers represent time periods (e.g., years, months, quarters,
etc...) and may be presented within a time interval or at the end of a
time interval.
13
1
P =$8,000
1
2
5=N
Time scale with progression of time moving from left to right; the
numbers represent time periods (e.g., years, months, quarters,
etc...) and may be presented within a time interval or at the end of a
time interval.
Present expense (cash outflow) of $8,000 for lender.
14
1
P =$8,000
1
2
4
4
5=N
Time scale with progression of time moving from left to right; the
numbers represent time periods (e.g., years, months, quarters,
etc...) and may be presented within a time interval or at the end of
a time interval.
15
P =$8,000
A = $2,524
4
4
5=N
Time scale with progression of time moving from left to right; the
numbers represent time periods (e.g., years, months, quarters,
etc...) and may be presented within a time interval or at the end of
a time interval.
5
16
Break
17
Cost Terminology
Fixed cost is the cost that are unaffected by changes in
activity level. Eg- Insurance, interest, rental
Variable cost is the cost that vary with output or activity
level. Eg- Material cost, labor cost
Sunk Cost- Occurred in the past and has no relation to
the future cost or revenue and normally disregarded from
engineering analysis.
Opportunity Cost-The benefit that are foregone by
engaging a business resource in a chosen activity instead
of engaging that same resource in the foregone activity.
18
Cost
Variable Cost
Fixed Cost
Volume
19
Cost Terminology
Recurring cost- Cost that are repetitive and occurs when
the organization produce similar product or services.EgSpace rental, annual maintenance
Non-recurring cost- Cost that are not repetitive or one
time deal charge. Eg- new machine installation,
emergency maintenance
Direct cost- Cost that can be measured and allocated to
specific activities. Eg- labor cost, material cost
Indirect cost- Cost other than direct cost that related to
the product. eg.- Equipment maintenance cost, building
maintenance
20
LCCs Terminology
Salvage values : the cost of the equipment/asset at
the end of the study period. Values can be positive
or negative (cost)
Study period : Over which the operating expenses
and ownership are evaluated.
Discount rate : Rate of interest reflecting investors
time value of money.
21
Cost Estimating
The basic of engineering economic analysis focuses on
future consequences of current decisions
As the exact future results are not known with certainty,
the consequences must be estimated.
The estimate depends largely on the accuracy of data
input
Examples of estimates normally used in economic
analysis:
Purchase Cost
Annual revenue
Annual Maintenance
Equipment salvage value
22
Types of Estimates
Usage
Accuracy
Rough
estimates
-30% to
+60%
SemiDetailed
estimates
Budgeting purposes
-15% to
Preliminary design decision +20%
Detailed
estimates
-3% to
+5%
high
Cost of estimates
Types of
Estimates
Low
Low
Medium
Accuracy of estimates
23
high
Estimating Models
Per unit model
Uses per unit factor such as cost per square foot (meter)
No allowance for economies of scale(higher quantity cost less on
per unit basis)
Applicable for order of magnitude type of estimates
Examples:
Service cost per customer
Utility cost per equipment
24
A. Chassis
A.1 Deck
A.2 Wheels
A.3 Axles
Cost Item
C. Controls
7.40
3.85
10.20
8.55
4.85
4.70
22.45
21.50
6.70
7.40
B. Drive Train
B.1 Engine
38.5
5.90
B.3 Transmission
5.45
D. Cutting system
10.00
52.70
10.80
5.15
7.05
7.70
7.75
72.70
25.60
25
Estimating Model
Cost Indexes
Dimensionless number to reflect historical change in
costs. Eg CPI or consumer price index.
Indexes can be used to update historical costs with basic
ratio relationship given in the equation below:
Cost at Time A
Cost at Time B
26
27
Estimating Model
Power Sizing Model
Used to estimate the cost of industrial plants
and equipment
The model scale up or scale down of previously
known costs by taking into account the
economies of scale.
The model uses the following equation for the
estimate:Size (Capacity) of equipment A
Cost of equipment A
=
Cost of equipment B
Where:
x is the power sizing exponent
Cost of A and B are at the same point in time
Size or capacity of A and B are in the same physical units
2.0 Engineering Costs and Estimating
28
Note : Other values can be obtained from Plant design and economics for chemical engineers,
Chemical Engineering Handbooks, other design handbooks and equipment companies.
29
Cost at Time A
Cost at Time B
100
Cost at Time B
1200
Cost of equipment A
Cost of equipment B
300
Cost of 600 MW
0.79
3
Years
Expense
(-ve) cash
flow
(present
value)
2.0 Engineering Costs and Estimating
31
5=N
i = interest rate=10%
32
Year
Capital
Cost
-25000
O&M
Overhaul
Net Cash
Flow
-25000
-2500
-2500
-2500
-2500
-2500
-2500
-2500
-2500
2500
5000
-12000
2500
0
2500
2500
33
2500
-14500
14500
25000
2.0 Engineering Costs and Estimating
Year
Income
Cost
-7
-2500
-2500
-6
750
-100
650
-5
750
-125
625
-4
750
-150
600
-3
750
-175
575
-2
750
-200
550
-1
750
-225
525
750
-250
500
750 + 150
-275
625
34
( MARR )
CAPITAL RATIONING
-k
k=0
k=0
i = effective interest rate
k = index for each compounding period
Fk = future cash flow at the end of period k
N = number of compounding periods in study period
N-k
CAPITAL RECOVERY ( CR )
Problem
A certain service can be performed satisfactorily by process X,
which has a capital investment cost of $8,000, an estimated life of
10 years, no salvage value, an annual net receipts (revenue
expenses) of $2,400. Assuming a MARR of 18% before income
taxes, find the AW of this process and specify whether you would
recommend it.
Solution:
AW (i%) = R - E CR (i%)
AW (18%) = $2,400 [$8,000(A/P,18%,10) - $0(A/F,18%,10)]
= $2,400 [$1,780 - $0]
= $620
Conclusion: because AW (18%) is positive, the process X is
recommended.
( P / F, i %, k ) =
k=0
( P / F, i %, k )
k=0
PW = Rk =k 0( P / F, i %, k ) - k=E0 k ( P / F, i %, k ) = 0
i is calculated on the beginning-of-year unrecovered
Problem
Determine the IRR of the following engineering project when the
MARR is 15% per year.
Investment cost
$10,000
Expected life
5 years
Salvage value
-$ 1,000
Annual receipts
$ 8,000
Annual expenses
$ 4,000
Solution:
PW = 0 = -$10,000 $1,000(P/F,i%,5) + (8,000-$4,000)(P/A,i%,5)
By trial and error process, at i = 20%, PW = $1560.50
at i = 25%, PW = $ 429.50
By linear extrapolation, i = 27%, hence the project is acceptable;
> MARR
of
occurrence
206,000
206,000
1
2
Capital replacement
(fan)
48,000
14
Capital replacement
(Plant)
240,000
17
Salvage value
80,000
22
Electricity
125,000 kWh at
0.3/kWh
37500
annual
Natural gas
1700 GJ at RM24/GJ
40800
annual
OM&R
28000
annual
@ i=10%
Total LCC
Location: X
Discount Factor: 10% real for constant dollar analysis
Energy prices: Fuel type: Electricity at 30 sen /kWh
Useful life of systems: 20 years
Study period: 22 years
Base Date: Jan Base
2010.date
Cost Items
Year
Discount factor
Cost (RM)
of
occurrence
220,000
220,000
1
2
Capital replacement
(fan)
50,000
14
Salvage value
80,000
22
Electricity
100,000 kWh at
0.3/kWh
37500
annual
Natural gas
1180 GJ at RM24/GJ
40800
annual
OM&R
32000
annual
@ i=10%
Total LCC
Present value
Back Up
57
E
k=0
( P / F,
%, k )( F / P, i %, N )
=
%, N - k )
( F / P,
k=0
Rk = excess of receipts over expenses in period k
Ek = excess of expenses over receipts in period k
N = project life or period of study
= external reinvestment rate per period
N
R ( F / P, %, N - k )
i %= ?
Time
Ek ( P / F, %, k )( F / P, i %, N )
k=0
k = 0k
ERR ADVANTAGES
Problem 4.32
Summary of the projected costs and annual receipts for a
new product line is presented as follows:
End of Year
Net Cash Flow
0
- $450,000
1
42,500
2
92,800
3
386,000
4
614,600
5
- 202,200
The companys external reinvestment rate per year = MARR
= 10% per year
Solution:
[$450,000 + $42,500(P/F,10%,1) + $202,200(P/F,10%,5)]
(F/P,i%,5)
= $92,800(F/P,10%,3) + $386,000(F/P,10%,2) +
$614,600(F/P,10%,1)
$614,182.73(F/P,i%,5) = $1,265,544
(F/P,i%,5) = 2.0622
By interpolation, i% , ERR = 15.6%
Problem 4.34
Problem
A certain project has a net receipts equaling $1,000
now, has costs of $5,000 at the end of the first year, and
earns $6,000 at the end of the second year.
If the external reinvestment rate of 10% is available,
what is the rate of return for this project using the ERR
method ?
Solution:
$5,000(P/F,10%,1)(F/P,i%,2) = $1,000(F/P,10%,2) +
$6,000
(F/P,i%,2) = $7,210 / $4,545.50
= 1.5862
By interpolation, ERR = i% = 25.9%
( R
-Ek) - I > 0
( Rk - Ek) ( P / F, i %, k ) - I > 0
k=1
i is the MARR
I is the capital investment made at the present time
( k = 0 ) is the present time
is the smallest value that satisfies the equation
EOY
Net c / flow
@ MARR 20%
Cum PW @ i=0%
0
- $25,000
- $25,0000
$25,000
1
8,000
17,000
18,333
2
8,000
9,000
12,777
3
8,000
1,000
8,147
period is at7,000
4th
4 The payback
8,000
years, because the
4,289
balance turns
5 cumulative
13,000
20,000
positive at EOY 4
934
[time value of money is not
considered]
PW @ i=20%
Cum PW
- $25,000
6,667
5,556
4,630
3,858
The payback
period is at 5th year, because the cumulative
discounted5,223
balance turns
positive at EOY 5
[time value of money is
considered]