Approaches To Studying The Future: Prospective Planning

AP P R O A CH ES T O
STU D Y IN G T H E F U T U R E
PRO SPEC T IV E P LA NNING
• CURRENTLY, COMPANIES ARE LOOKING FOR
WAYS TO ANTICIPATE THE SITUATIONS THAT
MAY ARISE IN THE MARKET, WHICH IS WHY
METHODOLOGIES HAVE EMERGED FROM WHICH
STUDIES CAN BE CARRIED OUT TO MEASURE THE
FUTURE OF CURRENT SITUATIONS.
• TO STUDY THE FUTURE THERE ARE FIVE MAIN
APPROACHES THAT MUST BE ANALYZED
Focus Definition
Projection approach Take data or events from the past and present to extrapolate
them to the future by using mathematical, statistical and
qualitative methods. They start from the continuity of trends and
the trajectory of events, assuming a historical pattern to provide
an image of the future that carries a probability. It is considered
that the maximum extrapolated should not be more than five
years. A classic example is the projection studies of
population in a war, data from a country in a few years and annual
growth rates.
Focus on predictions Based on a deterministic world view, it is the field of futurology;
are presented
irrefutable and exact statements about what is to happen.
Foresight approach It is considered as taking certain actions in the present to solve
problems that may arise in the future in advance; it leads to
immediate action. Generally it is about making appreciations
based on events that have occurred,
when posing certain hypotheses.
Forecasting approach Announcement made by certain signs or signals; a future thing is
conjectured. That series of
Trials will serve as an action program.
THE PROSPECTIVE IS CONCEIVED AS A BASIC INPUT FOR
PLANNING, SINCE IT SUPPORTS THE ACHIEVEMENT OF
THE FOLLOWING OBJECTIVES:
• BUILD SCENARIOS OR IMAGES THAT CONSIDER THE
VISION OF THE FUTURE.
• PROVIDE STRATEGIC ELEMENTS TO THE PLANNING AND
DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT PROCESSES.
• PROVIDE THE REQUIRED MOMENTUM TO TRANSFORM
POTENTIAL INTO CAPACITY.
• PROVIDE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF REALITY.
PROSPECTIVE
Foresight is based on three essential strategies:
the long-term vision, its holistic coverage and
consensus. These harmoniously combine to offer
alternative scenarios ("where to go?"), Its strategic
evaluation ("where should it go?") And its tactical
planning ("how?", "When?", " with what? and "with
whom?").
PROSPECTIVE STRUCTURE
• IT PRESENTS THREE LEVELS OR STEPS. THE FIRST LEVEL OR NORMATIVE PLANNING IS
THE ONE IN WHICH OBJECTIVES ARE DEFINED THROUGH THE DESIGN OF DESIRED
FUTURES; WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE AND FOR WHAT.
• IN THE SECOND LEVEL OR STRATEGIC PLANNING, WE WORK WITH THE OBJECTIVES OR

GOALS ORIENTED BY THE POSSIBLE RESULTS; DETERMINES WHAT CAN BE DONE AND
HOW.
• FINALLY, THE THIRD LEVEL OR OPERATIONAL PLANNING IS WHERE DECISIONS ARE

IMPLEMENTED;
• INDICATES WHAT WILL BE DONE.
• ANALYZE OUR CURRENT SITUATION
• ANALYZE THE MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND COMPETITION
• MAKE AN EFFORT TO DEVELOP OUR BUSINESS MODEL AND POSITIONING
• STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES
• HAVE A MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM ACTION PLAN
• RUN AWAY FROM THE JUNCTURE FOR A MOMENT
TYPES OF SCENARIOS
•TREND
•CATASTROPHIC
•UTOPIAN
•FUTURISTIC
TREND SCENARIO
• IT IS THE STAGE THAT TRIES TO SHOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THINGS CONTINUE
AS THEY ARE. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT THE EXTRAPOLATIONS
OF THE TRENDS THAT CAN OCCUR, IT IS NECESSARY TO EXPLAIN WHICH ARE THE
HISTORICAL, OR NEW FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE OR CONTRIBUTE TO THE EXPECTED
TREND BEING SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE, THAT IS, IT IS NECESSARY TO SPECIFY
THOSE FACTORS THAT MAKE THE TREND TEND TO STRENGTHEN.
CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
• SCENARIO WHERE THE UNEXPECTED OCCURS AND UNCERTAINTY REIGNS, THAT IS TO SAY
WHERE RUPTURE FACTORS ABOUND THAT BREAK THE EXISTING TRENDS AT A GIVEN
MOMENT. ITS CONSEQUENCES SHOULD NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSIDERED NEGATIVE,
SINCE IT IS A SCENARIO THAT INVITES YOU TO THINK CREATIVELY ABOUT NEW
POSSIBILITIES TO CHANNEL POSITIVE EVENTS OR COUNTERACT NEGATIVE ONES. THIS
SCENARIO IS RESERVED FOR "THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE." TO THINK THAT EVERYTHING
CAN CHANGE ABRUPTLY, BUT WITH AN ARGUMENTATIVE LOGIC THAT SUPPORTS IT.
UTOPIAN SCENARIO
•WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF MOST OF OUR WISHES WERE FULFILLED,

BUT FOR WHICH WE CONSIDER ITS PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE LOW.
FUTURISTIC SCENARIO
•WHAT MAY HAPPEN AS LONG AS MULTIPLE REQUIREMENTS AND

CONDITIONS ARE MET, ALL OF WHICH ARE FEASIBLE BUT REQUIRE
CONSENSUS AND COMMITMENT TO CERTAIN STRATEGIES,
EFFORTS AND RESOURCES.

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AP P R O A CH ES T O

• IN THE SECOND LEVEL OR STRATEGIC PLANNING, WE WORK WITH THE OBJECTIVES OR

• FINALLY, THE THIRD LEVEL OR OPERATIONAL PLANNING IS WHERE DECISIONS ARE

•WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF MOST OF OUR WISHES WERE FULFILLED,

•WHAT MAY HAPPEN AS LONG AS MULTIPLE REQUIREMENTS AND

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