Poisson Distribution: DR A R M Harunur Rashid

Poisson Distribution
Dr A R M Harunur Rashid
• Introduced by Simeon Poisson in 1837
• It could be identified by situations that involve
observations per unit time, that is, some sort of rate per
unit time. For example, customer arriving per hour,
machine breakdown per two days etc.
• Occurrence of a particular
outcome(i.e.success,nonconformity,breakdown etc) in
poisson distribution has equal opportunity.
• Here as well each outcome may be grouped into two:
success or non success, conformity or nonconformity, yes
or no, pass or fail.
Poisson probability distribution describes the number of times some event oc-
curs during a specified interval. The interval may be time, distance, area, or volume.
The distribution is based on two assumptions. The first assumption is that the
probability is proportional to the length of the interval. The second assumption is that
the intervals are independent. To put it another way, the longer the interval the larger
the probability, and the number of occurrences in one interval does not affect the other
intervals. This distribution is also a limiting form of the binomial distribution when the
probability of a success is very small and n is large. It is often referred to as the "law
of improbable events," meaning that the probability of a particular event's happen-
ing is quite small. The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution be-
cause it is formed by counting.
In summary, a Poisson probability distribution has these characteristics:
POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
1. The random variable is the number of times some event occurs during a
defined interval.
2. The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the interval.
3. The intervals which do not overlap are independent.
Applications of Poisson probability
distribution
This distribution has many applications. It is used as a model to describe the distri-
bution of errors in data entry, the number of scratches and other imperfections in
newly painted car panels, the number of defective parts in outgoing shipments, the
number of customers waiting to be served at a restaurant or waiting to get into an at-
traction at Disney World, etc.
The variance of the Poisson is also equal to its mean.
If, for example, the probability
that a check cashed by a bank will bounce is .0003, and 10,000 checks are cashed,
the mean and the variance for the number of bad checks is 3.0, found by J.L = n1f =
10,000(.0003) = 3.0.
For a binomial distribution there is a fixed number of trials. For exam-

ple, for a four-question multiple-choice test there can only be zero, one, two, three, or
four successes (correct answers). The random variable, x, for a Poisson distribution,
however, can assume an infinite number of values-that is, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, .... How-
ever, the probabilities become very small after the first few occurrences (successes).
Formula and properties of Poisson
distribution
• c is the value asked in the question or you are trying to find
out. It is like x value(i.e. success) in hypergeometric
distribution.
• npo is the average value per unit time given in the question.
• Mean equals to npo and the standard deviation equals to
sqrt(npo)
• Usually poisson probabilty distribution is skewed(i.e. right
skewed that is tail on the right side)
• As npo gets larger, the poisson distribution aprroaches
symmetry, that is , towards normal distribution.
Formula in another format
• Here the value asked in the question is x
• Poisson Formula
• Suppose we conduct a Poisson experiment, in which the average
number of successes within a given region is μ=np 0. It is also called
mean number of successes (μ=np0) Then, the Poisson probability is:

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!
• Where, x is the actual number of successes that result from the

experiment, and e is approximately equal to 2.71828. Here, n =
sample size & po = proportion success(in decimal value)
Poisson properties in detail
A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:
The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or
failures.
The average number of successes (μ=np0) that occurs in a specified region is
known.
The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the
region.
The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is
virtually zero.

Note that the specified region could take many forms. For instance, it could be a
length, an area, a volume, a period of time, etc.

Poisson distribution
A Poisson random variable is the number of successes that result from a Poisson
experiment. The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable is called a
Poisson distribution.
The Poisson distribution has the following
properties:
The mean of the distribution is equal to μ =
np0
Standard Deviation of poisson distribution
=square root(np0)
The variance is also equal to μ = np0;
Chart pg 475,Besterfield
• In the parentheses cumulative probabilities for
obtaining ‘or less’ are given.
• P(y or less)= value given in parentheses for y
• P(y or more)= 1 – P(y or less)
Example
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Properties
company is 2 homes per day. What is the probability that exactly 3
homes will be sold tomorrow?

Solution:
This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:
μ = 2; since 2 homes are sold per day, on average.
x = 3; since we want to find the likelihood that 3 homes will be sold tomorrow.
e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately 2.71828.

We plug these values into the Poisson formula as follows:

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!
P(3; 2) = (2.71828-2) (23) / 3!
= (0.13534) (8) / 6
= 0.180

Thus, the probability of selling 3 homes tomorrow is 0.180 , that is
18%
Poisson as an approximation for the binomial
• In such problems, average rate per unit time

may not be given. Instead probability of
success(i.e.may be nonconformity),po, may be
given with total no of items in that situation(n)
• From the data given, we could find np0 that is
equivalent to mu(i.e. μ = np0 )
Exr 37
• A random sample of 10 auotmotive bumpers
is taken from a stream of product that is 5%
non conforming. Using the poisson as an
approximation of the binomial distribution,
determine the probability of 2 non conforming
bumpers.

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Poisson Distribution

For a binomial distribution there is a fixed number of trials. For exam-

• Where, x is the actual number of successes that result from the

• In such problems, average rate per unit time

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