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    Reserves Estimation of Oil & Gas

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    asdfghj
    The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a producing field continues throughout its lifetime. There is always uncertainty in reserve estimates, which depends on factors like reservoir type, data quality, and assumptions. Reserves are determined using either deterministic or probabilistic methods, with the latter requiring a range of parameter values and software to generate a probability distribution of reserves. Common estimation methods include volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance, and reservoir simulation.

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    Reserves Estimation of Oil & Gas

    Uploaded by

    asdfghj
    42 views17 pages
    The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a producing field continues throughout its lifetime. There is always uncertainty in reserve estimates, which depends on factors like reservoir type, data quality, and assumptions. Reserves are determined using either deterministic or probabilistic methods, with the latter requiring a range of parameter values and software to generate a probability distribution of reserves. Common estimation methods include volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance, and reservoir simulation.

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    RESERVES estimares- session-2+3

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    The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a producing field continues throughout its lifetime. There is always uncertainty in reserve estimates, which depends on factors like reservoir type, data quality, and assumptions. Reserves are determined using either deterministic or probabilistic methods, with the latter requiring a range of parameter values and software to generate a probability distribution of reserves. Common estimation methods include volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance, and reservoir simulation.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    42 views17 pages

    Reserves Estimation of Oil & Gas

    Uploaded by

    asdfghj
    The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a producing field continues throughout its lifetime. There is always uncertainty in reserve estimates, which depends on factors like reservoir type, data quality, and assumptions. Reserves are determined using either deterministic or probabilistic methods, with the latter requiring a range of parameter values and software to generate a probability distribution of reserves. Common estimation methods include volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance, and reservoir simulation.

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    RESERVES ESTIMATION OF OIL & GAS

    The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a


    producing field continues throughout the life of the
    field.
    • There is always uncertainty in making such estimates. The level
    of uncertainty is affected by the following factors:

     Reservoir type,
     Source of reservoir energy,
     Quantity and quality of the geological, engineering, and
    geophysical data,
     Assumptions adopted when making the estimate,
     Available technology, and Experience and knowledge of the
    evaluator.
    Methods of Reserves Determination
    Reserves are determined using either deterministic or probabilistic methods.
    Results from the two methods should be reasonably consistent.

    Deterministic Method
    This is the most common method used worldwide, which involves the
    selection of a single value of each parameter in the reserves
    calculations.

    Probabilistic Method
    This method requires selecting a full range of values for each unknown
    parameter. A software program; such as, a Monte Carlo simulator is
    used to generate a probability distribution profile of the reserves.
    ESTIMATION OF HYDROCARBON RESERVES

    The oil and gas reserves estimation methods can be grouped into the
    following categories:
     Analogy - A close-to-abandonment analogous field is taken as an
    approximate to the current field
     Volumetric - determining the areal extent of the reservoir, the rock
    pore volume, and the fluid content within the pore volume
     Decline analysis - plot of the well’s production rate versus time
     Material balance calculations - involve the analysis of pressure /
    production behavior as reservoir fluids are withdrawn
     Reservoir simulation.
    Reserve Determination Methods
     Deterministic methods
    Analogy
    – Use with results from similar fields
    Volumetric Methods
    Performance
    – Decline curve
    – Material balance
    – Simulation

     Probabilistic methods
    The process of estimating oil and gas reserves
    for a producing field continues throughout the life of
    the field. There is always uncertainty in making
    such estimates. The level of uncertainty is affected
    by the following factors:
     Reservoir type,
     Source of reservoir energy,
     Quantity and quality of the geological,engineering,
    and
     geophysical data,Assumptions adopted when
    making
     the estimate,
     Available technology, and
     Experience and knowledge of the evaluator.
    VOLUMETRIC METHOD FOR RESERVE ESTIMATION

    One of the earliest methods of estimating inplace hydrocarbon


    is the volumetric method.
    The volumetric method requires calculation of the Petroleum
    Inplace from the computed rock volume.
    With knowledge of rock and fluid properties, estimate of the in-
    place hydrocarbons is carried out using simple calculations
    It is then coupled with a recovery factor to determine the
    recoverable reserves as on date.
    Example

    • Area (Sq. Km.) = 0.74


    • Rock volume (MMm3) = 2.59
    • Porosity (%) = 25.0
    • HC saturation (%) (So)= 59.0
    • FVF = 1.38
    • Sp.gr. = 0.86
    • GOR (m3/m3) = 60
    CASE STUDY FROM A FIELD FOR VOLUMETRIC ESTIMATION
    OIL
    Q = A x h x phi x So X Sp. Gr Inplace in MMt
    Bo
    Q = 0.74 x 3.5 x 0.25x 0.59 X 0.86 = 0.24 MMt
    1.38
    SOLUTION GAS
    Q = 0.74 x 3.5 x 0.25x 0.59 X 0.86 X 60.0 =14.3 MMm3
    1.38
    INPLACE HYDROCARBON : 0.24 MMt Oil
    : 14.3 MMm3 Solution Gas
    ULTIMATE RESERVES : 0.24 X RF MMt Oil
    : 14.3 X RF MMm3 Solution Gas
    Probabilistic Evaluation
    Applications:
     Exploration prospect evaluation - no wells are
    drilled yet, but seismic data is available
     Initial evaluation of new discovery – limited
     
    number of wells
     Developed fields, but not fully delineated
     Uncertainty of reservoir parameters – Variation
    of Reservoir ( Rock And Fluid) properties Both
    aerially and vertically.
    Probabilistic Evaluation
    Uncertainties:
     Areal extent (seismic, FWL, OWC)
     Porosity distribution (homogeneous vs.
    Heterogeneous reservoir)
     Pay thickness : NTG
      Water saturation
      Variation of PVT properties
     Drive Mechanism
    Probabilistic Estimates
    • Same formula
    • Apply range of parameters
    • Obtain ranges of possible outcomes and their associated
    probabilities

    Based on probability distributions of parameters in computational method.


    Qoil =A x h x phi x So X Sp. Gr X Recovery Factor (in MMt)
    Bo

    Similar for other


    Probability variables (A,, So, Boi,
    ER)

    Value h
    Probabilistic Evaluation
    Procedure:
     Estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum values of the
    reservoir/fluid parameters are made.
      Monte Carlo statistical simulator is run to establish the reserves
    probability distribution and reserves classifications:
     (Proved) reserves determined at 90% probability (P ) 90
     (Proved + probable) reserves determined at 50% probability (P) 50
     (Proved + probable + possible) determined at 10% probability (P ) 10
    Probabilistic Evaluation

    Monte Carlo Simulator Graphical Output

    100
    Proved
    80

    60
    Proved + Probable
    40

    20

    Proved +Probable+ possible


    0 40 80 120 160 200

    OOIP, MMBbl’s
    Reserves

    100
    Proved Reserves
    90 (90% probability)
    Probable Reserves
    (50% probability)

    50 Possible Reserves
    (10% probability)
    Probability

    10
    0
    Reserves, stb
    Progression of Probabilistic Method

    100
    10.0 Proved
    Well #1
    80
    Well #2
    Well #3
    60
    Proved + Probable
    40

    20 Proved
    Probable
    + +
    possible

    0 40 80 120 160 200


    OOIP, MMBbl’s
    Progression of Probabilistic Method

    As more data becomes available (seismic, drilling, open-


    hole logs, well testing, etc., estimate from the probabilistic
    method will improve, as follows:

    <  The spread of reserve estimates (P10 to P90) becomes


    narrower
    <  The probable and possible reserves are reduced, while the
    proved reserves are increased
    <  The probability distribution curve becomes steeper as
    uncertainties are reduced

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