Korean Economy Evolution
Korean Economy Evolution
Korean Economy Evolution
2
These figures place Korea in 2014 as
7thlargest trading countries by exports &
imports (IMF WEO DB)
13th largest economy by GDP (IMF WEO DB)
13th highest internet penetration ratio (World
Bank WDI DB)
27th largest country by population size (World
Bank WDI DB)
31th richest economy by GDP per capita (IMF
WEO DB)
3
Rank Country GDP(US$M) Rank Country GDP(US$M)
United
1 17,418.93 11 Canada 1,788.72
States
2 China 10,380.38 12 Australia 1,444.19
3 Japan 4,616.34 13 Korea 1,416.95
4 Germany 3,859.55 14 Spain 1,406.86
United
5 2,945.15 15 Mexico 1,282.73
Kingdom
6 France 2,846.89 16 Indonesia 888.648
7 Brazil 2,353.03 17 Netherlands 866.354
8 Italy 2,147.95 18 Turkey 806.108
9 India 2,049.50 19 Saudi Arabia 752.459
10 Russia 1,857.46 20 Switzerland 712.05
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database
4
1 Luxembourg 111,716.27 21 New Zealand 43,837.29
2 Norway 97,013.26 22 United Arab Emirates 43,179.78
3 Qatar 93,965.18 23 Kuwait 43,103.34
4 Switzerland 87,475.46 24 Hong Kong SAR 39,871.10
5 Australia 61,219.16 25 Israel 36,990.98
6 Denmark 60,563.62 26 Brunei Darussalam 36,606.83
7 Sweden 58,491.47 27 Japan 36,331.74
8 San Marino 56,820.02 28 Italy 35,823.22
9 Singapore 56,319.34 29 Spain 30,278.35
10 United States 54,596.65 30 Bahrain 28,271.75
11 Ireland 53,461.97 31 Korea 28,100.72
12 Netherlands 51,372.96 32 Cyprus 26,115.46
13 Austria 51,306.67 33 Malta 24,876.20
14 Iceland 51,261.88 34 Saudi Arabia 24,454.02
15 Canada 50,397.86 35 The Bahamas 24,034.19
16 Finland 49,496.72 36 Slovenia 24,019.25
17 Belgium 47,721.59 37 Taiwan Province of China 22,597.73
18 Germany 47,589.97 38 Portugal 22,130.49
19 United Kingdom 45,653.41 39 Greece 21,653.08
20 France 44,538.15 40 Trinidad and Tobago 21,310.83
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database 5
It is also indicated that
Korea’s GDP in 2014 is 31,108 folds bigger than that
in 1953
GDP per capita 424 times larger than that in 1953
9
Still confronting with hostile North Korea
The devastated economy during the Korean War
(1950-1953)
Short Lived but extremely bloody
Life loss(incl. deceased, casualties & missing): 2.81 million
lives
S. Korea: 650,000 & UN: 150,000
N. Korea: 800,000 & Chinese: 1230,000
Refuges: more than ½ total population
Highly Destructive to industrial production capacity
42% of S. Korea’s manufacturing
60% of N. Korea’s industries
And surrounded with super powers: US, China,
Japan and Russia
10
Geopolitics of Korea
Russia
Kazakhstan
DPRK
USA
Japan
China RoK
11
Source: googlemap
Korean Economy is
The Miracle on the Han River (World Bank, 1993)
Asia’s Latest Miracle(Times, 2011.11.15)
How did Korea achieve such a miraculous
economic growth?
12
13
Average Growth Rate,1953-1960
5.3%p.a.
Resulting Market Saturation
National Priority Goal: Reunification of Korean
Peninsula
Source of Economic Growth?
Foreign Assistance from US
Growth Strategy?
Industrialization & Inward Looking
Import Substitution
14
15
Political Leadership Committed to Economic
Development
Came into power: 1961 Military Coup
Government-Led Economic Development
1st Five-Year Economic Development Plan(FYEDP) (1962-
1966) & 2nd FYEDP
Average Economic Growth Rate (1962-1971): 9.9% p.a.
Growth Strategy
Outward Looking & Export Promotion
Manufacturing; Labor Intensive manufacturing
16
Policies and Incentives
How to make export competitive?
“Getting Prices Right”
Unified Exchange Rate System (1961)
Devaluation of Korean Currency by 50% (1964)
Tax Concessions
Import Liberalization
Free import of materials and equipment used for export activities
Negative Import List System (1967)
Generous waste allowance for export business
17
Policies and Incentives
How to make export competitive?
“Getting Prices Right”
Export Target
Monthly Export Meeting convened by President
Social Respect
Normalization of Diplomatic Relationship with
Japan (1965)
Foreign Capital
Export Market
Source of Advanced Technology
19
Selection of Items 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Gross domestic product (current prices, won) (Bil .Won) 301.65 365.81 518.47 739.59 831.25 1,065.87 1,313.26 1,692.34 2,211.86 2,794.80 3,433.30
Per capita GDP (current prices, dollar) (U$) 84.0 90.0 103.0 106.0 108.0 128.0 145.0 174.0 216.0 253.0 290.0
Gross domestic product (%) 6.9 3.8 9.2 9.5 7.2 12.0 9.1 13.2 14.5 10.0 10.5
Exports of goods and services (%) 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.0 7.1 8.4 9.1 10.1 10.6 11.4 12.7
Imports of goods and services (%) 14.0 15.6 14.7 12.4 14.3 18.2 19.7 22.6 22.5 21.1 23.0
Gross saving ratio (%) 10.7 10.1 13.8 13.5 12.5 16.2 15.6 18.1 21.0 18.4 15.6
Gross domestic investment ratio (%) 11.7 13.1 17.8 14.7 14.0 20.6 21.1 25.9 28.8 25.7 25.2
Exports of goods and services (%) 5.2 5.0 4.8 6.0 8.5 10.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.6
(Goods) (%) 1.7 1.9 2.8 3.6 5.2 5.8 6.0 6.8 7.3 8.5 10.0
Imports of goods and services (%) 13.8 15.4 14.6 12.3 14.2 18.1 19.5 22.5 22.5 21.7 24.2
(Goods) (%) 11.8 13.6 12.9 10.8 12.4 16.1 17.1 19.6 19.5 18.4 20.4
Population 25765673 26513030 27261747 27984155 28704674 29435571 30130983 30838302 31544266 32240827 32882704
20
1972-1981 Average Growth Rate: 9.0% p.a.
3rd(1972-1976) and 4th (1977-1981) Five
Economic Development
Creating Comparative Advantage
21
Backgrounds
Losing comparative advantage & Needs to Upgrade
Industrial & Export Structure
due to rapidly rising wages
Catching-up by ASEAN
Protectionist barriers against NIES’ export
Non-Economic and Political Reasons
The Nixon Doctrine (1969)
Koreanization of Korean Security: Withdrwal of US troops from
Korea
The fall of Vietnam (1975)
22
Policies Used
“Carrots
and Sticks”
Government Subsidies and Tax Concession
26
Backgrounds for Switch Over
Internal Pressure
Sectorial Imbalance and Social Inefficiency
Associated with HCI Drive & Moral Hazard
Socialization of Private Risk
Excessive Capacity with Lower Capacity Utilization: 20%
Political Instability
Assassination of President & 2nd Military Coup
Poor Harvest
High Inflation associated with Rapidly rising international oil and
resources prices
External Pressures
High International Interest Rate
Slowdown of Global Economy
27
General Policy Stance
To correct excesses and imbalances
From export earnings to enhanced international
competitiveness
By giving more private initiatives
Continuing liberalization
Unilateral Import Liberalization
Privatization of banks by selling government shares(1981 & 1983)
Retained the gov’t right to appoint CEOs of commercial banks
Privatization of Interest rate (1988)
Introduction of a negative list system for Inward FDI (1984)
28
Political Liberalization
June 29 Declaration of Democratization (1987)
1st Democratic Change of Government
Accompanied Massive Industrial Dispute & Outward FDI
Hyper Economic Growth (1985-1988): 11%
p.a.
Due to favourable external conditions: “3 Lows” or “3
Blessings”
Low International Interest Rate
Low Currency Value
Low International Oil and Resource Prices
29
30
8th FYESDP (19912-1996)
Crisis
Hit the Korean Economy (1997-1998) &
Massive Economic and Social Reforms were
Conducted
Average Growth Rate (1992-1996): 7.2% p.a.
Background
31
8th FYESDP (1992-1996)
Background
32
Crisis Hit the Korean Economy in 1997
Massive contraction of the Korean economy
By - 5.5%
The Value of Currency Plummeted
By 40% in1998, relative to that in 1997
Unemployment skyrocketed
Unemployment rate in 1998: 7%
2.6% (1997)
No of the unemployed in 1998: 1.49 million people
0.57million (1997)
33
Reforms conducted
Corporate sector reforms including Chaebols
Big deals
Public Sector
More Foreign firms’ investment
Increased FDI, especially M&As
Government-led Reforms
Reforms slowed down with a quick economic recovery
9.6% p.a. Growth Rate (1999-2000)
34
35
In the Post Asian Financial Crisis period: Globalization and
Regional Trading Agreement (RTAs)
Actively Pursuing Free Trade Agreements
Background
Substantial Slowdown of Korean Economy
Average Economic Growth Rate (2001-2014): 4% p.a
Slow Down of Population Growth and Aging
Average Population Growth Rate (2001-2014): 0.5%
People with 65 and Older: 13%
36
Source: WTO (http://wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regfac_e.htm)
Korea’s FTA Status:
FTAs in force (11)
Chile, Singapore, EFTA(4), ASEAN(10), India, EU,
Peru, USA, Turkey, Australia, Canada
FTAs signed (5)
Columbia, Turkey, China, New Zealand, Viet Nam
38
Chile April, 2004
Singapore March, 2006
EFTA(4 countries) September 2006 9(*EFTA: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein )
Goods Trade Agreementin June 2007, & Service Trade Agreement in
ASEAN(10 countries) May 2005, Investment Agreement in September 2009 (*ASEAN 10
Countries)
In-Force (11 India January, 2010
FTAs) EU(28) July 2011 (EU 28 countries)
Peru Agust, 2011
USA March, 2012
Turkey (Base Agreement
May, 2013
&Goods Trade)
Australia December, 2014
Canada January, 2015
40
Korea actively participated bilateral free trade agreement as well
as mega-regional trade agreement such as RCEP or TPP
Shifting Korea’s Trade Policy paradigm
Why?
FTAs?
41
42
How Did Korea Achieve it?
7.5% p.a. Economic Growth Rate (1953-2014)
With a fairer income distribution
Gini Coefficient: 0.344 (1965) => 0.307 (2012)
Significant Structural Changes
From Primary to Industry
From Light Manufacturing to Capital Intensive and Technology Intensive
Why?
Leaders Committed to Economic Growth and Development
Accountability and transparency in International Economic and Trade Policy
Outward Orientation
Globalization through a main level of openness
Strategic, Pro-active Policy makings
Competitive Macroeconomic Policy
Promoting Competition
43
Rapid economic growth
Accompanied a Fair Income Distribution: Gini Coefficient
1990~19
1965 1970 1976 1982 1998 1999 2000 2001 2006 2012
97
0.281~0.
0.344 0.332 0.391 0.357 0.316 0.32 0.317 0.319 0.306 0.307
295
Significant structural changes
In Outputs
Agriculture-Industry-Service
In exports
Primary – Manufacturing
L-intensive-K-intensive-Knowledge-intensive
Export Share (%) 1962 1972 1977 1982 1987 1991 2001 2011 2014
Primary 27.5 10.3 13.8 7.9 6.0 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.2
Light Manufacturing 63.4 56.3 52.2 43.5 42.3 36.5 16.4 6.2 6.4
Heavy and Chemical Manufacturing 9.1 33.4 34.0 48.6 51.7 60 80.9 91 91.4
IT 15.4 27 22.4 23.9
Others 44.6 53.9 68.6 67.5
44
1953 1962 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2014
Primary(Agriculture,
30.1% 25.9% 16.6% 9.8% 4.9% 3.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Forestry & Fishery)
Electricy, Gas and Water 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%
Source: nso.kr 45
<1960s-Mid1980s> <Mid 1980s-1998> <Post-1998- >
Busin
ess Busine Busines
ss s People
Peop Peop
le le
54
Products (SITC 2 digit) Imports Growth Rate (%)
10
Source: 74
kita.net Industrial Machinery and Equipment 46 -
Source: kita.net
55
Exports Growth Rate
Products(SITC2 digit)
(US’000) (%)
Total 906,958 268.6
1 78 Automobile 388,723 267.4
2 57 Plastics(Materials) 62,270 34.1
5 87
Other Scientific and Control Apparatus and 46,981 32.6
Equipment
6 72 Special Industrial Machinery 46,832 28.3
58
59