3 Probability

Probability
Probability Experiments
A probability experiment is an action through which specific
results (counts, measurements or responses) are obtained.
Example:
Rolling a die and observing the number
that is rolled is a probability experiment.
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the

outcome.
The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the sample
space.
Example:
The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes.
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 2
Events
An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the
sample space.
Events are represented by
uppercase letters.
Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
A simple event is an event that consists of a single outcome.
Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
This is not a simple event because the outcomes of event A are
{2, 4, 6}.

Classical Probability
Classical (or theoretical) probability is used when each outcome in
a sample space is equally likely to occur. The classical probability
for event E is given by
Nu mber of ou t com es in even t
P (E )  .
Tot a l n u m ber of ou t comes in sa m ple spa ce
Example:
A die is rolled.
Find the probability of Event A: rolling a 5.
There is one outcome in Event A: {5}
1
P(A) =  0.167
“Probability of 6
Event A.”

Empirical Probability
Empirical (or statistical) probability is based on observations
obtained from probability experiments. The empirical frequency of an
event E is the relative frequency of event E.
Fr equ en cy of E ven t E
P (E ) 
Tot a l fr equ en cy
f

n
Example:
A travel agent determines that in every 50 reservations she makes,
12 will be for a cruise.
What is the probability that the next reservation she makes will be
for a cruise?
12
P(cruise) =  0.24
50
Law of Large Numbers
As an experiment is repeated over and over, the empirical probability
of an event approaches the theoretical (actual) probability of the event.
Example:
Sally flips a coin 20 times and gets 3 heads. The empirical
3
probability is This is not .
representative of the theoretical
20
1
probability which is .
As the number of2times Sally tosses the
coin increases, the law of large numbers indicates that the
empirical probability will get closer and closer to the theoretical
probability.
Probabilities with Frequency Distributions
Example:
The following frequency distribution represents the ages of 30
students in a statistics class. What is the probability that a student
is between 26 and 33 years old?
Ages Frequency, f
8
18 – 25 13 P (age 26 to 33) 
30
26 – 33 8
 0.267
34 – 41 4
42 – 49 3
50 – 57 2
 f  30
Permutations
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects. The number
of different permutations of n distinct objects is n!.
“n factorial”
n! = n · (n – 1)· (n – 2)· (n – 3)· …· 3· 2· 1
Example:
How many different surveys are required to cover all possible
question arrangements if there are 7 questions in a survey?
7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040 surveys

Permutation of n Objects Taken r at a Time
The number of permutations of n elements taken r at a time

is
n! .
n Pr 
(n  r)!
# in the
group # taken from
the group
Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In how many
different orders can you do so?
P r  8 P5  8!  8! = 8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1  6720 wa ys
n
(8  5)! 3! 3  2 1

Distinguishable Permutations
The number of distinguishable permutations of n objects, where
n1 are one type, n2 are another type, and so on is
n!
, wher e n1  n2  n3    nk  n.
n1 !  n 2 !  n 3 !n k !
Example:
Jessie wants to plant 10 plants along the sidewalk in her front
yard. She has 3 rose bushes, 4 daffodils, and 3 lilies. In how
many distinguishable ways can the plants be arranged?
10! 10  9  8  7  6  5  4!

3!4!3! 3!4!3!
 4,200 differ en t wa ys t o a r r a n ge t h e pla n t s
Combination of n Objects Taken r at a Time
A combination is a selection of r objects from a group of n things
when order does not matter. The number of combinations of
r objects selected from a group of n objects is
n!
nC r  .
# in the (n  r)! r !
collection
# taken from the
collection
Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In how many
different ways can you do so if the order doesn’t matter?
C 5 = 8! = 8  7  6  5!
8
3!5! 3!5!
= 56 combinations
Application of Counting Principles
Example:
In a state lottery, you must correctly select 6 numbers (in any order)
out of 44 to win the grand prize.
a.) How many ways can 6 numbers be chosen from the 44 numbers?
b.) If you purchase one lottery ticket, what is the probability of
winning the top prize?
44 !
a.) 44C 6   7,059,052 com bin a t ion s
6 !38 !
b.) There is only one winning ticket, therefore,
1
P (win )   0.00000014
7059052

3 Probability

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Probability

The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the

A simple event is an event that consists of a single outcome.

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 3

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 4

n! = n · (n – 1)· (n – 2)· (n – 3)· …· 3· 2· 1

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 8

The number of permutations of n elements taken r at a time

Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 9

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