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    Week 2 Lecture 4

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    Here are the solutions to the homework questions: 1. i) 1/4 ii) 1/2 iii) 1/4 iv) 3/4 v) 1/2 2. i) 1/6 ii) 5/6 iii) 3/11 iv) 1/2 v) 1/2 vi) 1/2 vii) 1/18 viii) 7/11 ix) 1/6

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    Here are the solutions to the homework questions: 1. i) 1/4 ii) 1/2 iii) 1/4 iv) 3/4 v) 1/2 2. i) 1/6 ii) 5/6 iii) 3/11 iv) 1/2 v) 1/2 vi) 1/2 vii) 1/18 viii) 7/11 ix) 1/6

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    Week 2 Lecture 4

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    Zahid Samran
    Here are the solutions to the homework questions: 1. i) 1/4 ii) 1/2 iii) 1/4 iv) 3/4 v) 1/2 2. i) 1/6 ii) 5/6 iii) 3/11 iv) 1/2 v) 1/2 vi) 1/2 vii) 1/18 viii) 7/11 ix) 1/6

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    1

    Lahore Garrison University


    Probability & Statistics Week- Lecture
    Semester- Fall 2020
    2
    Preamble (Past Lesson Brief)

    Measures of Dispersion
    Properties of SD
    Chebeyshev’s theorem

    Lahore Garrison University


    3
    Learning Outcomes

    By the end of the lesson Students should understand that


     Basic concepts of probability theory.
     To solve Simple word problems related to random experiment
    and probability theory.
     Laws of probability.

    Lahore Garrison University


    4
    Some Key terms used in Probability

    Experiment: An experiment is any activity from which results


    are obtained.
    Random Experiment:
    A random experiment is one in which the outcomes, or results, cannot be
    predicted with certainty.
    Examples of random experiment:
    1. Flip a coin
    2. Flip a coin 3 times
    3. Roll a die
    4. Draw a Simple random sample of size 50 from a population

    Lahore Garrison University


    5
    Some Key terms used in Probability

     Trial: A physical action , the result of which cannot be predetermined. Or A single repetition of a random experiment is
    called trial.
     Outcome : In probability theory, an outcome is a possible result of an experiment.
     Sample Space and Event:
    The set of all the possible outcomes is called the sample space of the experiment and is usually denoted by S.
     Event: The favorable outcome of an experiment is known as an event. Events are usually denoted by capital letters . i.e
    A,B,C.. Here are some examples.
    Example 1: Tossing a coin. The sample space is S = {H, T}. E = {H} is an event.
    Example 2: Tossing a die. The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. E = {2, 4, 6} is an event, which can be described in words
    as ”the number is even”.
    Example 3: Tossing a coin twice. The sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, T T}. E = {HH, HT} is an event, which can be
    described in words as ”the first toss results in a Heads.
    Lahore Garrison University
    6
    Types of events

    Simple or Elementary Event: If there be only one element of the sample space in the set representing an event, then this event is
    called a simple or elementary event.

    For example; if we throw a die, then the sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Now the event of 2 appearing on the die is simple
    and is given by E = {2}.

    Compound Event: If there are more than one element of the sample space in the set representing an event, then this event is
    called a compound event.

    For example; if we throw a die, having S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, the event of a odd number being shown is given by E = {1, 3, 5}.

    Lahore Garrison University


    7
    Types of events

    Certain Events/Sure Event: An event which is sure to occur at every performance of an experiment is called a certain event
    connected with the experiment.
    For example, “Head or Tail’ is a certain event connected with tossing a coin.

    Impossible Event: An event which cannot occur at any performance of the experiment is called an impossible event.
    Following are such examples ----
    (i) ‘Seven’ in case of throwing a die.
    (ii) ‘Sum-13’ in case of throwing a pair of dice.

    Lahore Garrison University


    8
    Mutually Exclusive and Non Mutually
    Exclusive Events
    Mutually Exclusive Events: If there be no element common between two or more events, i.e., between two or more
    subsets of the sample space, then these events are called mutually exclusive events.
    If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then P(A ∩ B )= 0

    For example, in connection with throw a die “even face” and “odd face” are mutually exclusive.
    But” odd-face” and “multiple of 3” are not mutually exclusive, because when “face-3” occurs both the events “odd
    face” and “multiply of 3” are said to be occurred simultaneously.
    We see that two simple-events are always mutually exclusive while two compound events may or may not mutually
    exclusive.

    Lahore Garrison University


    9
    Independent and dependent Events

     Independent Events
    When two events are independent of each other, it means that the the probability of one event occurring does not
    influence the Probability of the other event.
    An example of two independent events is as follows; say you rolled a die and flipped a coin. The probability of getting
    any number face on the die in no way influences the probability of getting a head or a tail on the coin.
     Dependent Events
    When two events are said to be dependent, the probability of one event occurring influences the Probability of the other
    event.
    For example, if you were to draw a two cards from a deck of 52 cards. If on your first draw you had an ace and you
    put that aside, the probability of drawing an ace on the second draw is greatly changed because you drew an ace the first
    time.

    Lahore Garrison University


    10
    Venn diagram of sample space and events

    Lahore Garrison University


    11
    Probability

     Definition of Empirical Probability:


    The probability of occurrence of an event is the ratio of the favorable outcomes in which the event occurred to
    the total number of outcomes.
    The empirical probability of the occurrence of an event E is defined as:

    P(E)==

    Lahore Garrison University


    12
    Axioms of Probability

    The three axioms are:


    1. Total probability is always equals to 1. i.e P(S)=1

    2. If A is any event then


    0≤P(A) ≤1, if P(A)=0, which means that A is an impossible event,
    if P(A)=1, which means that A is a sure event.

    3. If A and B are not mutually exclusive events , P(A ∪ B ) = P(A) + P(B)-P(A∩ B).

    if A and B are mutually exclusive then P(A∩ B)=0 , so P(A ∪ B ) = P(A) + P(B)

    Lahore Garrison University


    13
    Practice questions

     Question 1: A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is obtained.
     Question 2: Two coins are tossed, find the probability that two heads are obtained.
     Question 3: Which of these numbers cannot be a probability?
    a) -0.00001
    b) 0.5
    c) 1.5
    d) 0
    e) 1
    f) 20%

    Lahore Garrison University


    14
    Practice questions

     Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is
    a) equal to 1
    b) equal to 4
    c) less than 13
     Question 5: A card is drawn at random from a deck of cards. Find the probability of
    getting the number 3 of diamond.
     Question 6: A card is drawn at random from a deck of cards. Find the probability of
    getting a queen.
     Question7: A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a
    marble is drawn from the jar at random, what is the probability that this marble is white?

    Lahore Garrison University


    15
    Practice questions

     Question 8: The blood groups of 200 people is distributed as follows: 50 have


    type A blood, 65 have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If
    a person from this group is selected at random, what is the probability that this person has
    O blood type?

    Lahore Garrison University


    16
    Independent and dependent events explanation
    questions

    Lahore Garrison University


    17
    Home Assignment

    Q1 : Two coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting:


    i. No head
    ii. One head
    iii. Two heads
    iv. At least one head
    v. At most one head

    Lahore Garrison University


    18

    Q2 : Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of getting the sum of dots:
    i. Exactly 6
    ii. Less than 7
    iii. More than 8
    iv. Odd numbers
    v. Even numbers
    vi. Divisible by 2
    vii. Divisible by 3 & 4
    viii. Divisible by 3, 4 or 5
    ix. At least 9
    x. At most 5
    xi. Show that prob. Of less than 7 is equal to more than 7

    Lahore Garrison University


    Q4 : Three coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting:
    a) Three heads
    b) At least 2 heads 19
    c) At most 2 heads
    d) No head
    e) One head
    f) Two heads

    Q5 :A single card is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards.


    I. The card is a diamond
    II. The card is a red king
    III. The card is black
    IV. The card is not a king

    Q6 : Two Cards are drawn from well-shuffled ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that they are both aces if
    the first card is (i) replaced, (ii) not replaced.
    Solution: (i) In case of replacement, event A and B are Independent. Thus
    P (both cards are aces)==
    (ii) If the first card is not replaced, then A and B are dependent events and therefore
    P (both cards are aces)=

    Lahore Garrison University


    20

    Q &A

    Lahore Garrison University


    21
    References

     Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists by Ronald E. Walpole,


    Raymond H. Myers, Sharon L. Myers and Keying E. Ye, Pearson; 9th Edition
    (January 6, 2011). ISBN-10: 0321629116 2
     Walpole, P.E., Myers R.H., Myers S.L. (1998), “Probability and Statistics for
    Engineers and Scientists”, 7th Ed. Prentice Hall.

    Lahore Garrison University

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