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The Natural Rate of Unemployment
Lecturer: Luu Quang Hung

Tutor: Nguyen Minh Anh
Tut: 2FB-12
Members: Doan Hoang Hiep

Nguyen Thuy Ly
Pham Kim Khanh Ngan
Pham Thi Hong Nhung
Contents
Summary theories
Summary theories
Summary theories
Summary report
1. Methodology
2. Main Criteria
3. Results and
Collective tables
METHODOLOGY
1. Candidates, sample
•Candidates: households (individuals
are fully or more than 15 years old)
•Sample: 50,460 households/ quarter
(16,880 households/ month)
METHODOLOGY
2. Time
• Start on the first of each month
• Time to collect data (including
travel):
 8 days: 55 provinces and cities under
the Central Government
 10 days: 8 other provinces
METHODOLOGY
3. Sampling method and data collection

•Sampling method:
First period (locality): each province and
city is separated urban and countryside
Second period (household): choosing 15
households (20 households) from each area.
METHODOLOGY
3. Sampling method and data collection

• Data collection:
 Directly interviewing householder and
members in household
 Filling in control charts
METHODOLOGY
4. Data analysis
• All control charts will be scanned to enter
data and analyze
• The final report will be produced by
Department of Statistics of Population and
Labor and Statistical Information Centre
Main criteria
• Adult population (age 15 and older): 69.16

million
• Labor force: 53.86 million
• Labor force participation rate: 77.9%
• Employed: 52.74 million
• Unemployed: 1.12 million
• Unemployment rate: 2.32%
Due date: 1/10/2013
Results
1. Labor force
1.1. Scale of labor force and labor force participation
rate (LFPR)
•Increasing urban labor force but 69.8% in rural areas
•Mainly focusing in Red River Delta, Northern and
Coastal Central & Cuu Long River Delta (56.3)
•Occupied by 48.5 % female
•National LFPR: 77.9%, urban rate: 70.6%, rural rate
81.5%, highest in mountainous areas while lowest in
Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
Results
1.2. Age structure of labor force

•Relatively young labor force with 50.9% in
15-39
•Higher labor force proportion in main labor
age (25-54) for urban areas
Results
Figure 1: The proportion of the labor force by age group and place of
residence, Q3 2013
Percentage
16
14
12
10
4
Urban – Q3/2013
2
Rural - Q3/2013
Age group
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Results
2. Employment
• 70.2% of the employed in rural areas
• 48.5% accounted by female
• Increasing number of employed (by 335.4
million), compared with previous quarter
Results
3. Under-employment and unemployment
3.1. Number of under-employment and
unemployed
•Under-employment: employment with 35h
and below per week.
•1321 million under-employment, falling by
about 47.9 million; and 1118.1 million
unemployed, raising by 134.1 million (both
compared with 1/10/2012).
•50.3% unemployment and 21% under-
employment in youth labor force (15-24
Results
Table 3: Number of unemployed persons and the number unemployed divided by quarter
Unit: thousand people
The Number of The Number of
Gender / residence / region underemployment unemployment
Q 4, Q1, Q2, Q 3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3,
2012 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013 2013 2013
Country 1 326,8 1 555,1 1 271,4 1321,0 857,4 1 078,5 1 039,3 1118,1

Urban 221,9 296,5 206,1 199,5 430,5 562,5 549,4 540,4
Rural 1 104,9 1 258,6 1 065,3 1121,5 426,9 516,1 489,9 577,7
Gender
Male 737,4 918,8 709,5 737,4 395,8 564,1 542,8 580,4
Female 589,3 636,3 561,9 583,6 461,5 514,5 496,5 537,8
Areas
Midlands and northern mountains 158,4 143,4 82,4 118,3 44,6 53,2 52,9 63,1
Red River Delta (*) 214,0 324,1 234,8 289,7 122,6 155,9 145,4 156,0
Bac Trung Bo and Central Coastal 378,8 334,4 276,8 253,9 223,1 218,0 205,7 237,1
Tay Nguyen 76,5 101,0 52,5 83,2 36,7 42,7 55,2 50,9
Dong Nam Bo (*) 43,3 84,1 56,5 56,6 56,4 105,4 102,6 82,2
The Cuu Long Delta 424,2 511,2 525,8 461,4 190,5 241,2 218,9 245,7
Ha Noi 25,4 37,2 34,9 52,4 65,9 120,4 110,0 149,5
Ho Chi Minh City 6,2 19,8 7,7 5,6 117,6 141,6 148,5 133,7
Results
3.2. Under-employment and unemployment rate
•Higher unemployment rate in urban (3.59%)
than rural areas(1.74%), highest for Hanoi
(4.27%).
•Under-employment rate in rural (3,24%) higher
than urban areas (1.3%), highest in Cuu Long
River Delta (4.97%).
•Small rise in urban unemployment rate in
comparison with 3rd quarter of 2012 (3.59% with
3.31%).
Results
Results
Figure 5: Youth unemployment rate (from 15 to 24) in urban and rural
Unit: Percentage
Results
Figure 2: Structure of labor employment by sector and economic category, Q3 2013
Unit: Percentage
Regional economic: Type of economic:

A g ric u ltu r Foreig
Industry N on-
e, fo restry n
and Govern g o v ern
Gender / residence / region an d invest
construction Services ment
fish ery m en t
ment
Country 46,8 21,2 32,0 10,0 86,5 3,5
Urban 14,9 26,9 58,3 19,3 74,9 5,9
Rural 60,4 18,8 20,8 6,1 91,4 2,5
Gender
Male 44,9 25,1 30,0 10,6 87,1 2,3
Female 48,8 17,1 34,1 9,4 85,8 4,7
Areas
Midlands and northern mountains 70,2 11,5 18,3 9,5 89,3 1,2
Red River Delta (*) 42,3 29,3 28,3 9,0 86,8 4,2
North Central and Central Coastal 53,7 17,1 29,2 9,4 89,4 1,2
Highlands 72,2 7,2 20,6 9,5 90,3 0,2
The South East (*) 32,0 35,0 32,9 9,5 75,4 15,2
The Cuu Long Delta 49,5 17,2 33,3 7,6 91,0 1,4
Ha Noi 24,6 28,0 47,4 18,3 79,4 2,4
Ho Chi Minh city 2,6 33,9 63,5 14,6 76,6 8,7
Results
Thousand people
Figure 3: Labour force aged 15 and over divided by gender

and level of technical expertise Q3, 2013
Results
Unit: Thousand Dong

Figure 4: Average salary / month of workers aged 15 and over divided by
gender and level of technical expertise Q3, 2013
Limitation
The unemployment rate does not make much

sense to Vietnam
1.Difficulty of population statistics
2.Unpredictable changes in income
References
1. Underemployment statistics:
http://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/statisti
cs-overview-and-topics/underemployment/lang--en/
index.htm
2. Số người thiếu việc làm và tỷ lệ thiếu việc làm:
http://gso.gov.vn/danhmuc/HTCT_QG.aspx?
ma_nhom=030803
3. Giải thích thuật ngữ, nội dung và phương pháp tính một
số chỉ tiêu thống kê dân số và lao động:
http://ngtk.hanam.gov.vn/ngtk/2.htm

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The Natural Rate of Unemployment

Lecturer: Luu Quang Hung

Members: Doan Hoang Hiep

3. Sampling method and data collection

3. Sampling method and data collection

• Adult population (age 15 and older): 69.16

1.2. Age structure of labor force

Country 1 326,8 1 555,1 1 271,4 1321,0 857,4 1 078,5 1 039,3 1118,1

Regional economic: Type of economic:

Figure 3: Labour force aged 15 and over divided by gender

Unit: Thousand Dong

The unemployment rate does not make much

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