Chap 4

Flood Frequency
Analysis
 Extrapolation Methods
 Drought analysis
Introduction
 Water resource systems must be planned for
future events for which no exact time of
occurrence can be forecasted.
 Hence, the hydrologist must give a statement
of the probability of the stream flows
 These probabilities are important to the
economic and social evaluation of a project.
 For major projects, the failure of which seriously
threatens human life, a more extreme event,
the probable maximum flood, has become the
standard for designing the spillway.
Contd.
 This chapter deals with techniques for defining
probability from a given set of data and with
special methods employed for determining
design flood for major hydraulic structures.
 Frequency analysis is the hydrologic term used
to describe the probability of occurrence of a
particular hydrologic event (e.g. rainfall, flood,
drought, etc.).
 For planning and designing of water resources
development projects, the important parameters
are river discharges and related questions on
the frequency & duration of normal flows and
extreme flows.
Contd.
 Probability analysis seeks to define the flood flow

with probability of p being equaled or exceed in any
year.
 The probability of eachm events can be calculated as
follow P
N 1
The probability of occurrence of the event r times in n

successive years can be obtained from:
The probability of occurrence of the event at

least once in n successive years, p= 1-(1-p)^n 1
T 
The recurrence interval T, (also called return P
Contd.
 Consider, for example, a list of flood
magnitudes of a river arranged in
descending order as shown in Table The
length of record is 50 years.
Contd.
 A plot of Q Vs T yields the probability distribution.
 For small return periods (i.e. for interpolation) or
where limited extrapolation is required, a simple
best-fitting curve through plotted points can be
used as the probability distribution.
 However, when larger extrapolations of T are
involved, Gumbel extreme-value, Log-Pearson
Type III, and log normal distributions) have to
be used.
•
Contd.
 Theoretical Distributions of Floods
 Chow has shown that most frequency-distribution functions
applicable in hydrologic studies can be expressed by the
following equation known as the general equation of
hydrologic frequency analysis:
• Where xT = value of the variate X of a random hydrologic

series with a return period T,
• x = mean of the variate,
• σ = standard deviation of the variate,
• K = frequency factor which depends upon the return
period, T and the assumed frequency distribution.
I Extreme-Value Type I Distribution
(Gumbel’s Method)
• This extreme value theory of Gumbel is only

applicable to annual extremes.
• in the Gumbel method the data are ranked in
descending order
• and it makes use of the probability of non-
exceedence q=1-P
• The return period T is therefore given by
T = 1 / P = 1 / (1-q).
Contd.
• Gumbel makes use of a reduced variate y as a

function of q,
• According to his theory of extreme events, the
probability of occurrence of an event equal to
or larger than a value x0 is
Contd.
• The original Gumbel equation describes the

probability of non-excedence (q)
q=exp[-exp{-y}]
applicable to an infinite sample size (i.e. N → ∞).

contd
• Gumbel’s Equation for Practical use

The above equation giving the value of the
variate x with recurrence interval T is used as
Where  n 1 = standard deviation of the sample

xT  x  K  n  1
• K= frequency Factor expressed as
2
( x  x)
 n 1 
N1
yT  y n
K
sn
Contd.
• In which yT = reduced variate, a function of T and
given as
yT  [ln . ln TT 1 ]
y n  Reduced mean, a function of sample size N
and is given in table
(For N
 , sn Re duced Standard deviation, a
function sample size N and is given in table
 , yn  0.577
(For N
Contd.
• These equations are used under the following procedure to
estimate the flood magnitude corresponding to a given
return period based on an annual flood series.
1 Assemble the discharge data and note the samplesizen  1 N. x
Here the annual flood value is the variate x. Find and
for the given data. sn yn
2 Using a table determine and
yT
appropriate to given N.
3 Find for a given T.
xT
4 Find K.
5 Determine the required
Contd.
Table : Reduced mean yn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N =

sample size
Contd.
Table : Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N = sample

size
Contd.
• Example 1
• Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for
the period 1951 to 1977 is given below.
 Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-value I

distribution fit the recorded values.
 Estimate the flood discharge with return period of (i)
100 years and (ii) 150 years by graphical
extrapolation.
Contd.
Solutions: The flood discharge values are
arranged in descending order and the plotting
position return period TP for each discharge is
obtained as Tp=(N+1)/M=(27+1)/M=28/M
 Where m = order number. The discharge
magnitude Q can be plotted against the

corresponding TP on a Gumbel extreme
probability paper.
 The statistics x(mean) and σn-1(Stan.Dev)
for the series are next calculated and are

shown in table below.
Contd.
Contd.
Contd.
Confidence Limits for the fitted data
 For a confidence probability c, the
confidence interval of the variate xT is

bound by value x1 and x2 given by
 x1/2 = xT± f (c) Se
 Where f(c) = function of the confidence
probability c determined by using the
table of normal variate as
Contd.
 Example 2:
Data covering a period of 92 years for a
certain river yielded the mean and
standard deviation of the annual flood
series as 6437 and 2951 m3/s respectively.
Using Gumbel's method, estimate the flood
discharge with a
return period of 500 years.
What are the
(a) 95% and
(b) 80% confidence limits for this estimate?
Contd.
 Solution: From Table for N = 92 years,
yn = 0.5589, and Sn =1.2020. Then
 y500 = -[ln((ln(500/499))] = 6.21361
 K500 = (6.21361 - 0.5589)/1.2020 = 4.7044,
 X500 = 6437 + 4.7044*2951 =20320m3/s.
 From Eq.
 n 1
se  probable..error b
N
b  (1  1.3K  1.1K 2 )
b=√(1+1.3*4.7044+1.1*4.70442)=5.61
Se=5.61*(2951/ √92)=1726
Contd.
(a) For the 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 and

x1/2 =20320xT ± (1.96*1726)
which results in x1 = 23703m3/s and
x2 = 16937m3/s.
Thus the estimated discharge of 20320m3/s has a 95%
probability of lying between 23700 and 16940m3/s.
(b) For 80% confidence probability, f(c) = 1.282 and
x1/2 = 20320xT ± (1.282*1726), which results in
x1 = 22533m3/s and
x2 =18107m3/s.
Thus the estimated discharge of 20320 m3/s has an 80%
probability of lying between 22533 and 18107m3/s.
II Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
 In this distribution the variate X is first

transformed into logarithmic form and the
transformed data is then analysed. Z = log
x
 For this z series, for any recurrence interval
T,
Where Kz = a frequency factor which is a function of
recurrence interval T and the coefficient of skew Cs,
Contd.
 the corresponding value of xT is

obtained by
xT = antilog(zT)
Contd.
Contd.
 Example : For the annual flood series data
given in above example , estimate the flood
discharge for a return period of
(a) 100 years
(b) 200 years and
(c) 1000 years by using Log-Pearson Type III
distribution.
Contd.
 Solution:
 The variate z = log x is first calculated for all
the discharges in table below. Then the
statistics z , σz and Cs are calculated from
above table to obtain
z (mean)= 3.6071
σz = 0.1427
Cs = (27*0.0030)/(26)(25)(0.1427)3 = 0.043
 The flood discharge for a given T is calculated
as below. Here, values of Kz for given T and
Cs = 0.043 are read from table .
Contd.
Reading Assignment
• Low flow analysis
• Drought analysis
Contd.
Risk, Reliability and Safety factor

Risk and Reliability: The designer of a
hydraulic structure always faces a nagging
doubt about the risk of failure of his
structure.
The probability of occurrence of an event
(x≥xT) at least once over a period of n
successive years is called the risk, R .
 R= 1 - (Probability of non-occurrence of
the event in n years).
The reliability Re, is defined as

Example
• A bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is

designed for a flood magnitude of return
period 100 years.
a) What is the risk of this hydrologic design?
b) If a 10% risk is acceptable, what return period
will have to be adopted?
Solution
a) The risk R = ,
• Here n= 25 years and T= 100 years

• R= 1-(1-1/100)^25= 0.222, 22.2% risk
b) R=10%=0.1
0.1=1-(1-1/T)^25, T = 238 Years = 240 years.
Hence to get 10% acceptable risk, the bridge will
have to be designed for a flood of return period T=
240 years.

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Flood Frequency

 Probability analysis seeks to define the flood flow

The probability of occurrence of the event r times in n

The probability of occurrence of the event at

• Where xT = value of the variate X of a random hydrologic

• This extreme value theory of Gumbel is only

• Gumbel makes use of a reduced variate y as a

• The original Gumbel equation describes the

applicable to an infinite sample size (i.e. N → ∞).

• Gumbel’s Equation for Practical use

Where  n 1 = standard deviation of the sample

Table : Reduced mean yn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N =

Table : Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution, N = sample

 Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-value I

magnitude Q can be plotted against the

for the series are next calculated and are

confidence interval of the variate xT is

(a) For the 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 and

 In this distribution the variate X is first

 the corresponding value of xT is

Risk, Reliability and Safety factor

the event in n years).

The reliability Re, is defined as

• A bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is

• Here n= 25 years and T= 100 years

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