Myanmar Economy P (Font TNM) Draft

Myanmar Economy
Presented by Group (9) 6. EMBA I-58 Mg Pe Zin Nyein

1. EMBA I- 5 Ma May Phyu Phyu Aung 7. EMBA I-68 Mg Myo San
2. EMBA I-11 Ma Sweety Thein Aung 8. EMBA I-71 Mg Aung Htet Saw
3. EMBA I-17 Ma Khin Thet Htar Aye 9. EMBA I-84 Ma Khin Myat Tun
4. EMBA I-26 Ma Cho Min Htet 10.EMBA I-86 Mg Thet Naing Tun
5. EMBA I-30 Mg Ye lin Htet 11.EMBA I-96 Mg Thet Tun
1 Zaw
2.9.2023
Contents
 Introduction
 Executive Summary
 Current Economic Position of Myanmar
 Trading Situation
 Supply Chain Condition
 A Fragile Economic Recovery
 Back to Golden Days
 Conclusion
2
Executive Summary
 Prior to the February 2021 Political changes,
• High optimism for Myanmar’s economic future
• Spoken as a new tiger of the economy(due to improved
banking system and created a more transparent
regulations)
 Many foreign companies withdraw from the country along with

international sanctions, security concerns, unexpected changes in
regulations, and a high inflation rate
 The economy shrank by 20% in2021 and remains at 75% of its 2019
size
3
Current Economic Position of Myanmar
 GDP expected to grow by 2.6% in this year (the lowest of all ASEAN
countries)
- Agricultural production 45%
- Service 25%
- Industry(Construction + Garment) 30%
 Inflation rate 8.5% in 2023(the highest)
 Unemployment rate 3.7% in 2023
 According to ILO report, 1.6 million people lost jobs in
Myanmar after COVID-19 pandemic & political changes
 Transparency international ranks of Myanmar(157/180)
 Young citizens(especially 18-25 aged) have left the country
4
8.00%
6.80%
6.00% 6.30%
4.00%
3.00% 3.00%
2.00%
1.50%
0.00%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-2.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
-8.00%
-10.00% -10.00%
-12.00%
Myanmar's GDP
Figure .1 Myanmar's GDP 5

80.00%
70.00% 70.90%
67.90%
60.00% 61.20%
56.20%
50.00% 50.80%
41.80%
41.40% 41.30% 41.10% 41.20%
40.00%
38.30% 39.20% 38.60% 37.70%
35.00% 33.70% 32.50% 33.60%
30.00% 29.20%
24.20%
21.90%
20.00% 20.30%
14.60%
12.40% 11.90%
10.00% 8.80% 8.90% 9.50%
0.00% 0.00% 1.10%
Agricultural Industrial Services
Figure .2 ASEAN GDP 6

Trading Situation
 Unexpected trading rules, with heavy use of import & export licenses
 High inflation rates
 High currency exchange rate
 Enormous increase in fuel cost
 Many trading companies struggle to manipulate the market to create a

trade surplus
7
18.00%
16.00% 16.23%
14.00% 14.18%
12.00%
10.00%
9.10%
8.63%
8.00%
7.26%
6.00% 6.38%
5.74% 5.94% 5.73%
4.60%
4.00% 3.64% 3.69%
2.53%
2.00%
1.36% 1.48% 1.33%
0.72% 0.72% 0.77% 0.99% 0.77% 0.70%
0.00%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate
Figure .3 Inflation And Unemployment Rate Statista

8
Supply Chain Condition
 Economic turmoil and conflict have greatly disrupted supply
chains
 Custom clearances are slow(combined with license issue

creating a long and complicated process getting goods to
market)
 Limited fuel availability and high costs are also a complicating

factor
 Security issue is also a big issue for food imports from Thailand
9
4000
3600
3500
3000 3030
2700
2500
2090 2100 2100

2000
1778
1500 1533 1469
1394
1000
500
0
2019 2020
Central Bank Rate2021 2022
Market Rate 2023
Figure .4 CB Vs Market Dollar Rate

10
690000000
682798200
680000000
671454000
670000000
660000000
653058000
650000000
647079300
640000000
630000000
620000000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Fuel Gallons
Figure .5 Fuel Consumption

11
Conclusion
A Fragile Economic Recovery
 The economic activity has been slowly increasing in Myanmar,
with a 3% GDP growth rate in 2023.
 However, the economy was in a fragile recovery with a long way

back to return pre-COVID pandemic level of economic activity
 Reasons for this economic include, worsening conflict, greater

slumps in electricity generation, persistent inflationary pressure,
and further deterioration in the business environment
 Economic activity could also be limited by severe supply and

demand constraints.
 Meanwhile, the limited growth that exists is unequal and the

benefits of this growth are distributed unevenly.
12
Back to Golden Days
 Since 100 BC, Burma was the main trade route between India and
China. After Burma was conquered by the British, it became the
wealthiest country in Southeast Asia.
 It was also the world’s largest exporter of rice. It was also produced
75% of the world’s teak.
13
14

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Myanmar Economy

Presented by Group (9) 6. EMBA I-58 Mg Pe Zin Nyein

 Many foreign companies withdraw from the country along with

Figure .1 Myanmar's GDP 5

0.00% 0.00% 1.10%

Agricultural Industrial Services

Figure .2 ASEAN GDP 6

 Many trading companies struggle to manipulate the market to create a

Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate

Figure .3 Inflation And Unemployment Rate Statista

 Custom clearances are slow(combined with license issue

 Limited fuel availability and high costs are also a complicating

2090 2100 2100

Figure .4 CB Vs Market Dollar Rate

Figure .5 Fuel Consumption

 However, the economy was in a fragile recovery with a long way

 Reasons for this economic include, worsening conflict, greater

 Economic activity could also be limited by severe supply and

 Meanwhile, the limited growth that exists is unequal and the

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