Ch04 PPT Linden Crim 9e

Chapter 4
Counting Crime
by
John Evans
Slides prepared by
Stephen Schneider
Saint Mary’s University
Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-1

Learning Objectives
• Describe how the administrative records collected in the criminal

justice system are turned into statistics about crime and the
characteristics of offenders and victims.
• Understand the problems of reliability and validity associated with
measures of crime and offenders.
• Understand the system that produces Canadian crime and criminal
justice statistics.
• Describe the trends in Canadian crime rates over the past five
decades.
• Describe the strengths and weaknesses of victimization and self-
reported criminality surveys, and understand how these two methods
enhance our understanding of the problem of crime in Canada.

Controversies over
Counting Crime

Controversies over Counting Crime
• How can we obtain data about the amount and nature
of crime in a society?
• As official sources of statistics have increased, and as
creative methodologies for data collection have
advanced, reliability and validity have become the most
pressing concerns.
• Are the methods involved in gathering statistics strong
enough that anyone following the procedures would
produce the same counts (reliability)?
• Do the statistics collected count what they purport to
count (validity)?
Coverage: How
can we obtain
Reliability: How
reliable and
consistent are
valid data on
the results?
the scope and
nature of crime?
Methodology:
Do the methods
Validity: Does
used to count
the tool actually
crime hold up
measure crime?
under critical
analysis?

The crime funnel affects police-recorded crime rate.

• Police cannot record unreported crime or crime of which
they are unaware.
• The further into the CJS you go, the more obvious it
becomes that you are collecting statistics on how the CJS
operates (that is, that you are counting official decisions):
– For example, data on the prison population provide valid
indicators of one way that a society responds to crime, but are
not a valid measure of the scope and nature of crime.

• Criminologists have developed theories and

conducted research using crime statistics that may
not be entirely valid or reliable.
• Statistics and theories of crime can be misused:
– Theories and facts are mutually dependent.
– Theory without facts is ideology.
– Facts without theory is implicit ideology.
– Statistics without theory is numerology.
• In sum, we need to critically analyze crime statistics
for their validity and reliability.
• statistics about crime and

Three broad criminals
types of • statistics about the criminal
criminal justice system and its
justice response to crime
• statistics about perceptions
statistics: of crime and criminal justice

Statistics on the Criminal
Justice System

Statistics on the CJS
• CJS produces an enormous amount of raw data

• This data includes police reports and records,
court decisions, administrative records of prisons
and penitentiaries, and decisions of parole and
probation officials.
• The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics has
developed a sophisticated system of statistics on
the CJS.

Statistics on the CJS
From Records to Statistics

• CJS administrative records are not statistics.
• Records are concerned with individual cases (for example,
an offender).
– They help practitioners make decisions about these
individual cases.
• Statistics are aggregated; they are concerned with what is
common among many individual cases.
– They provide information about larger questions: planning
and evaluation, policy and program development, and
theory building and testing.
From Records to Statistics
To change • Units of count—what is being counted

records into • Level of aggregation—how to combine data
usable • Definitions—how to define what is being
statistics, we
counted
need to
• Data element—what info is to be collected
consider many
methodological • Counting procedure—how to count units and
issues: elements

Canadian Criminal Justice Statistics:
Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics (CCJS)
CCJS was founded in 1981 to

collect national data on crime
and justice.
Its data on CJS inputs (resources,

expenditure) are good.
Its data on criminal incidents,

arrests, charges, convictions,
and dispositions have improved.

How Much Crime?

How Much Crime?
Counting crime is
problematic, because
much of it is
committed in secret
or goes unreported.
• crime that
The major problem remains
of crime statistics is
the dark figure of
unreported,
crime: unrecorded,
largely unknown.

How Much Crime?
Three
dominant • Official (police-reported)
ways to count statistics
crime or • Victimization surveys
describe crime • Self-report studies
patterns and
trends:

Official Statistics: Canadian
Uniform Crime Reports

Official Statistics: UCR
• The goal of Uniform Crime Reports is to

provide uniform and comparable national
statistics.
• Two versions:
– UCR Aggregate (UCR1.0) Survey: collects summary
data for 100 separate criminal offences
– UCR Incident-Based (UCR 2.0) Survey: collects
more detailed information on each incident,
victims, and accused
Seriousness rule in UCR statistics:

• Only the most serious crime is scored in an
incident involving several crimes.
• Implications:
– It deflates the total crime count.
– It inflates serious crimes as a percentage of the total.
– Not enough qualitative data about crimes are
recorded to use a sophisticated scale of seriousness.

Other concerns
• Crime categories are too general.
– Different criminal acts recorded the same way.
• It is not always clear what is being counted.
– Is it Criminal Code offences, violations of other federal and
provincial statutes, or violations of municipal bylaws?
• Crime rate does not differentiate between serious
(indictable) and less serious (summary) offences.
– Thus, gross counts of crime are misleading.

Other Concerns (cont.):

• UCR data may tell us more about police activities.
• “Official violations” statistics are often a product of police
policy decisions.
• Crime statistics are influenced by police discretion
regarding what crimes are serious enough to attend to,
record, and pursue.
• The ways police apply crime recording and scoring
procedures reflect the policing style and policy of the
particular police department.

Other Concerns (cont.):

• Is a particular crime increasing, or is it a reflection
of changing (i) social norms and/or (ii) police
charging policies?
– For example, is domestic violence increasing or is this
a product of (a) greater willingness of victims to
report the crime and/or (b) police being more apt to
press charges in recent years?

UCR aggregate data presented as crime rate:

• The crime rate is expressed as number of criminal
incidents for every 100,000 Canadians.
• The use of rate
– Allows for comparisons between jurisdictions or over
time, and
– Is not influenced by differences in population size
between jurisdictions, or changes in population size in
one jurisdiction.

Figure 4.5: Total Criminal Code Offences Reported to Police by
Most Serious Offence, Rate per 100,000 Canadians, 1962–2016

The CSI CSI is Thus, more

addresses the calculated by The more
serious
Crime matter of the assigning each serious the
offences have
crime rate offence a average
Severity being driven by weight derived sentence, the
a greater
impact on the
Index high volumes from sentences greater the
severity index.
of less serious given by the weight.
offences. criminal courts

Figure 4.7: Police-Report Crime Severity
Indexes, Canada, 1998–2017

Discussion Question
Does the UCR survey provide us with an accurate count of

crime, or at least a reasonable indicator of crime and crime
trends in Canada? Can official (UCR) statistics ever tell us about
total crime? Do you believe official crime statistics should
continue to be the dominant means by which we measure
crime in Canadian society?

Victimization Surveys

• A victimization survey asks a sample of people, via a

questionnaire survey, whether they have been a crime
victim.
• Victims may also be asked to describe
– The nature and consequences of their victimization,
– Whether it was reported to police (and if not, why?),
– The criminal justice response, and
– The perceptions of, and attitudes toward, crime and
the CJS, and their feelings of safety.
• It captures many crimes not included in UCR data.
Limitations
• Not all crimes are captured (for example, murders).
– Consensual crimes are generally not captured by either police-
reported UCR data or victimization surveys.
– Crimes that keep victims unaware of victimization cannot be
captured accurately in UCR or victimization surveys.
• Survey data may lack reliability.
– They depend on people’s memory, truthfulness, etc.
• Survey data may be skewed.
– Well-educated respondents are more likely to talk to
interviewers and give full accounts of their victimization
Lessons learned from victimization surveys

• Victimization surveys cannot capture the entire “dark”
figure missed by the UCR, but victimization data show
that many more Canadians are victimized than is
revealed by official statistics.
• Some people still do not report due to fear—for example,
victims of sexual or domestic violence.
• When incidents produced financial loss, reporting was
more likely.

Lessons learned from victimization surveys (cont.)

• Some crimes are more likely to come to police attention
than others.
• Some categories of victims are more likely to report their
victimization.
• Some categories of offenders (for example, family
members) are less likely to be reported.
• Victimization surveys go beyond merely counting crime.
– They provide data on costs of victimization, financial losses, physical
injuries, and fear.
– Data allow us to explore various dimensions of seriousness.
Figure 4.8: Violent Victimization Incidents Reported by
Canadians, by Age Group of the Victim, 2014

Discussion Question
Do victimization surveys provide us with an accurate count of

crime or at least a reasonable indicator of crime and crime
trends in Canada? Can victimization statistics ever tell us about
total crime? What are the benefits of victimization surveys over
UCR (police-reported) crime statistics?

Self-Report Studies
• Rather than relying on police data, why not just ask

criminals what they do and how often they do it?
– The people who know the most about crime are those
who break the law.
• The most common self-report studies are
administered among a specific population (for
example, secondary school students).
– Students are asked questions about the whether they have
committed a crime, the nature of the crime, and when

Self-Report Surveys
Benefits
• Self-report studies overcome some of the
weaknesses of police data and victimization surveys.
• They contribute to research and theories on the
causes of crime and delinquency, especially the
relationship between social class and crime.
• Hindelang, Hirschi & Weis (1981): people are willing
to report crimes in self-report surveys
– That is, this method can produce valid and reliable results.

Self-Report Surveys
Limitations
• Those who are typically law abiding are more likely to
report their occasional infractions compared to more
serious and chronic offenders.
• Respondents tend to report minor infractions and
downplay more serious infractions.
• Some demographic groups are more apt to underreport
criminal behaviour.
• It is often difficult to survey serious, chronic offenders.

Discussion Question
Do self-report studies provide us with an accurate count of

crime or at least a reasonable indicator of crime and crime
trends in Canada? Can self-report statistics ever tell us about
total crime? What are the benefits of self-report surveys over
UCR (police-reported) crime statistics and victimization
surveys?

Discussion Question
Compare and contrast the three dominant crime data

collection techniques discussed in this chapter. What are the
strengths and limitations of each? How can the limitations of
each be overcome to maximize the reliability and validity of
the findings of each one?

The Future of Crime and
Criminal Justice Statistics

Future of Crime and
Criminal Justice Statistics
New information technology holds great promise for improving the official records
that form the basis of most criminal justice statistics.
Advances in police information systems and crime classification systems hold

promise for richer data.
Advances may uncover serious incidents that are underreported (for example, sexual
assault, family violence) or are new (for example, cybercrime).

Summary
• Statistics can help us better understand the
nature and extent of crime in Canada, but we
must understand their strengths and weaknesses.
• The quality of official statistics varies depending
on the sources.
– Corrections data is most reliable and valid.
– Crimes known to the police will always be biased by
inconsistencies in reporting and recording.

Summary (cont.)
• Administrative records can be the basis of statistics if
clear methodological procedures are developed.
• The UCR system provides uniform and compatible
national statistics.
– Some hold that the UCR provides a reasonable estimate of
crime rates. Others hold that what is being measured is
criminal justice processing.
– Police-reported crime rates in Canada have declined since
the peak year of 1991.
– In 2016, CSI increased 1% from 2015, but remained 29%
lower than a decade earlier.
Summary (cont.)
• Victimization surveys provide an alternative and
complementary method of measuring crime.
– They ask random samples about victimization
experiences.
– They also provide data on such important issues as
reasons for reporting and not reporting crimes to the
police.

Summary (cont.)
• Self-report studies are not serious rivals of either
the UCR or victimization surveys as a method of
measuring crime.
– However, they are useful in answering questions related
to understanding the causes and correlates of crime.
• Developing Canada’s national statistics will take
continued effort and commitment.
– The CCJS has made great progress; statistics now
available are much better than they were 10 or 20 years
ago.

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Chapter 4

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-1

• Describe how the administrative records collected in the criminal

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-2

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-3

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-5

The crime funnel affects police-recorded crime rate.

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-6

• Criminologists have developed theories and

• statistics about crime and

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-9

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-10

• CJS produces an enormous amount of raw data

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-11

From Records to Statistics

To change • Units of count—what is being counted

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-13

CCJS was founded in 1981 to

Its data on CJS inputs (resources,

Its data on criminal incidents,

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-14

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-15

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-16

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-17

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-18

• The goal of Uniform Crime Reports is to

Seriousness rule in UCR statistics:

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-20

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-21

Other Concerns (cont.):

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-22

Other Concerns (cont.):

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-23

UCR aggregate data presented as crime rate:

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-24

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-25

The CSI CSI is Thus, more

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-26

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-27

Does the UCR survey provide us with an accurate count of

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-28

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-29

• A victimization survey asks a sample of people, via a

Lessons learned from victimization surveys

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-32

Lessons learned from victimization surveys (cont.)

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-34

Do victimization surveys provide us with an accurate count of

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-35

• Rather than relying on police data, why not just ask

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-36

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-37

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-38

Do self-report studies provide us with an accurate count of

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-39

Compare and contrast the three dominant crime data

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-40

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-41

Advances in police information systems and crime classification systems hold

Copyright © 2020 by Nelson Education Ltd. 4-42