Randomness,

Uncertainty,
and
Probability
 Randomness

The term randomness suggests

unpredictability. A simple example
of randomness is the tossing of a
coin. The outcome can either be
an observed head (H) or an
observed tail (T). Because the
outcome of the toss cannot be
predicted for sure, we say it
displays randomness.
 Uncertainty
At some time or another, everyone will experience
uncertainty . For example, if you are playing a
game of softball, and the pitch is on its way, you
may be uncertain as to whether to take a swing at
the ball or not. Or consider the case when you are
approaching the traffic signals and the light
changes from green to amber. You have to decide
whether you can make it through the intersection
or not. You may be uncertain as to what the
correct decision
should be.
 Probability
The concept of probability is used to quantify this
measure of doubt. If you believe that you have a 0.99
probability of getting across the intersection, you
have made a clear statement about your doubt. The
probability statement provides a great deal of
information, much more than statements such as
"Maybe I can make it across," "I should make it
across," etc.
Random Experiments,
Sample Space,
and
Events
Random Experiment

When we toss a coin, as mentioned earlier, we do not

know the outcome. Let us refer to this process of
tossing the coin as an experiment. We will define such
an experiment as a random or probability experiment.

 A random experiment is an experiment in which

the outcome on each trial is uncertain and distinct.

Examples of random experiments are

 rolling a die
 selecting items at random from a manufacturing
process to examine for defects
 selection of numbers by a lottery machine, etc.
 Sample Space
When we toss a coin, we have
two possible outcomes,
summarized by {H, T). When a
child is born, the child is either
a boy (B) or a girl (G),
summarized by {B, G). If we
consider a two-child family; the
possibilities can be summarized
by {BB, BG, GB, GG). In each
case, the outcomes enclosed in
{ ) include all the possible
outcomes. Such a list is called a
 The sample space for an experiment is
the list or set of all possible outcomes
for the experiment.

Example:
 List the sample space for a two-child
family.

Solution:
 Let B represent the outcome of a boy
and G for a girl. The diagram in the
figure, called a tree diagram,
depicts the possibilities. If you follow
along the "branches" of the tree, you
will trace out all the possible
outcomes as listed on the right-hand
side. Thus, the sample space is S =
 Events
We may be interested in only part of the sample space.
For example, we may only be concerned with one girl in
a two-child family; that is, the outcomes BG and GB.
These two outcomes constitute a subset of the sample
space. Such subsets are called events.

 An event is a subset of the sample space.

Note: Each outcome in a sample space is an event.

These events are called simple events.
 Classical
Probability
 Classical Probability

If we can assume that all the simple events in a sample space have the
same chance of occurring, then we can measure the probability of an
event as a proportion, relative to the number of points in the sample
space. Such a probability measure is referred to as classical probability.

 If the outcomes in a sample space are equally likely to occur, then the
classical probability of an event A is defined to be
 Example: If a two-child family is selected at random,
what is the probability of two boys?

Solution: Recall that the sample space was

S = { BB , BG, GB, GG}

In this sample space, the event of two boys

occurs once, and there are 4 simple events in the
sample space. Thus,

P(BB) =
 Example: In a manufacturing process, a quality
control inspector selected three items at random.
Let D represent the event of a defective item, and
let N represent the event of a nondefective item.
(a) List the possible outcomes for the sample
space. (b) What is the probability of the quality
control inspector’s observing at least two
defective items?

 (a) Solution: The possible points in the sample

space are given in the set S.
S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND,
NNN}

 (b) Solution: Let A be the event of at least two

defectives. Then A = {DDD, DDN, DND, NDD}.
Event A is made up of 4 simple events, and there
are 8 simple events in the sample space. Thus,

P(A) =
Relative Frequency
or
Empirical Probability
 Relative Frequency or Empirical
Probability

The relative frequency probability of an event's occurring

is the proportion of times the event occurs over a given
number of trials.
If A is the event in which we are interested, then the relative
frequency probability of A’s occurring, denoted by P(A), is
computed from
 If we flip a fair coin once, we say that the probability o
getting a head is = 0.5. This is because we have two
possible outcomes: a head or a tail.
This probability of 0.5 is the theoretical probability of
observing a head on a single toss of a coin. In an
experiment, however, if we flip the coin 10 times, say, and
observe 4 heads, then, based on this information, we say
that the chance of observing a head will be = 0.4, which is
not the same as 0.5. If, however, we flip the coin a large
number of times, we would expect about 50 percent of the
flips to result in a head.
Observe that,
 Example: Of the first 42 presidents of the United
States, 26 were lawyers. What is the probability of
randomly selecting from these 42 presidents a
president who was a lawyer?

Solution: Let A represent the event of a president's

being a lawyer. Thus, since there are 42 presidents and
26 were lawyers,
 Example: During a flu season, a campus health clinic observed that
on one day, 12 out of 60 students examined had strep throats, while a
week later on the same day, 18 out of 75 examined had strep throats.
Compute the relative frequencies for the given information.

Solution: The relative frequencies are and . Observe that these

relative frequencies are different. However, if data are collected over a
long period of time, the clinic may be able to conclude that during the
flu season, a student who is examined will have strep throat with a
probability of 0.22.
 LAW of
LARGE NUMBERS
 Law of Large Numbers

When an experiment is conducted a large number of times, the relative frequency

(empirical) probability of an event can be expected to be close to the theoretical
probability of the event. This approximation will improve as the number of
replications is increased.
The following example will demonstrate this concept.

Example: A fair coin is tossed 200 times. Display the graph of the cumulative
(running) relative frequency for the number of observed heads.

Solution: Since we are using a fair coin, the probability of observing a head on a
single toss is P(H) = 0.5, where H represents the outcome of a head, which is the
(theoretical) probability of observing a head. We should expect that as the number of
trials increases, the proportion of observed heads will approach 0.5. The experiment is
simulated using the MINITAB statistical software package, and the graph of the
cumulative relative frequency is displayed in the figure.
Cumulative relative frequency graph Cumulative relative frequency graph
for 200 trials for 1000 trials
The figure below shows what is happening as the number of
trials gets very large. The proportion flattens out around the
0.5 mark, which is the theoretical probability of observing a
head when a coin is tossed.

Cumulative relative frequency

graph for 10,000 trials
 SUBJECTIVE
PROBABILITY
 Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is a measure of belief. This measure
depends on your life experiences. Thus, based on their life
experiences, two reasonable persons may have different measures of
belief for a particular event's occurring. An example of a subjective
probability is a probability value that you assign to your chance of
passing an exam. This will be based on your experiences-number of
hours you studied, number of classes missed, etc. Subjective
probability cannot be uniformly used to define the chance of an
event's occurring because the value may be different for different
people.
Some Basic Laws of
Probability
Following are four basic laws of probability:

Law 1 : If the probability of an event is 1, then the event must occur.

 For example, the probability of each of us dying is 1. We know that
dying is certain to occur.
Law 2: If the probability of an event is 0, then the event will never
occur.
 For example, the probability of a person who was born outside the
United States becoming its president is zero. This is the decree of
the U.S. Constitution.
Law 3: The probability of any event must assume a value between 0
and 1, inclusively.
 For example, the probability of its raining today is 0.7 = 70
percent. We cannot be more than 100 percent certain that it will
rain, nor we cannot be less than 0 percent certain that it will rain.
Law 4: The sum of the probabilities of all the simple
events in a sample space must be equal to 1. Another way
of saying this is to say that the probability of the sample
space in any experiment is always 1.
 For example, if we consider the sample space for a two-
child family, there are 8 simple events. By the classical
approach, each simple event has an equal chance of
occurring. That is, each simple event has a chance of
occurring. When we sum these probabilities, we have
Other Probability
Rules
 Compound Events
A compound event is an event that is defined by combining two or
more events.
As an illustration, consider the following example.

Example: Let A be the event that a student owns a portable CD

player. Let B be the event that a student owns a laptop computer.
Let C be the event that a student owns both a portable CD player
and a laptop computer. Discuss the event C that is common to both
A and B.

Solution: From the given information, C is the event that is

common to both A and B. Since the event C is obtained by
combining A and B, C is a compound event.
 Union of Events

Consider two events A and B. We may be

interested in the event that is obtained
by considering the elements that are in
A, or in B, or in both A and B. Such a
compound event is called the union of
events A and B.

 The union of two events A and B is the

set of outcomes that are included in A
or B or both A and B.

Notation: The union of A and B will be

denoted by A U B.

The diagram is called a Venn diagram,

depicts the union of events A and B. The
 Example: Let A be the event of
rolling a fair six-sided die. Let B be
the event of an even number
between 0 and 9. What is A U B?

 Solution: A = {1,2,3,4,5,6) and B =

{2,4,6,8).
 Thus, A U B = {1,2,3,4,5,6,8)

Note that elements that are common to

both A and B are not repeated when
listing the elements in A U B.
 Example: Given that the probability that only event A will
occur is 0.3, the probability that only event B will occur is
0.4, and the probability that both events A and B will occur
is 0.1. Depict this information on a Venn diagram.

 Solution: The information is displayed in the figure.Note

that the sum of the probabilities in the Venn diagram equals
1.
 Intersection of Events

Consider two events A and B. We may be interested in the event that

is obtained by considering the elements that are in both A and B.
Such a compound event is called the intersection of events A and
B.

 The intersection of two events A and B is the set of outcomes that

are included in both A and B.
 Notation: The intersection of A and B will be denoted by A ꓵ B.
 Example: Let A be the event of rolling a fair six-
sided die. Let B be the event of an even number
between 0 and 9. What is A ꓵ B?

 Solution: Recall that A = {1,2,3,4,5,6) and B =

{2,4,6,8}. Thus, A ꓵ B = {2,4,6,).
 A ꓵ B is shown below.
 Mutually Exclusive
Events

Two events A and B are said to be

mutually exclusive if they have
no elements in common-in
other words, if the intersection is
empty.

Law 5: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive,

then

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

 Complement of an Event

The complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes that are not in
A.

Notation: We will let AC represent the complement of the event A.

Example : If a fair six-sided die with faces numbered 1 to 6 is rolled and

A is the event of rolling a 2, compute P(AC ).

Solution:
Now, P(A) =

Thus, P(AC ) = P {1,3, 4, 5, 6} = = 0.8333

 The Complement Rule
Law 6: The sum of the probability of
an event and the probability of its
complement equals 1.
Example: The probability of your favorite college basketball team's
winning a game is 0.6. What is the probability of the team's not
winning the next game?

Solution: Let AC be the event that your team does not win the next
game. Then A is the event of your team's winning the next game and
P(A) = 0.6. Thus,
 The Addition Rule

Law 7: For any two events A and B, the probability of their union is
given by

The shaded area is the union

of events A and B.
Example: In a sample of 100 college students, 60 said they
own a car, 30 said they own a stereo, and 10 said they own
both a car and a stereo. What is the probability of a student's
having a car, or a stereo, or both a car and a stereo?

Solution: We need to find P(C U D). From the Venn diagram in

Fig. 7-10 for Example 7-13, P(C) = 0.6, P(D) = 0.3, and P(C ꓵ D)
= 0.1.

Thus, P(C U D) = 0.6 + 0.3 - 0.1 = 0.8.

 Conditional Probability

Sometimes it is important to find the probability of one event given

that another event has occurred. Such a probability is called a
conditional probability.

Notation: We will let P(A|B) represent the conditional probability of

the event A given that event B has occurred. It is read as "the
probability of A given B.”

Law 8: The conditional probability of an event A, given that event

B has occurred, is computed from the following formula:
Example: In a sample of 100 college students, 60 said they
own a car, 30 said they own a stereo, and 10 said they own
both a car and a stereo. What is the probability of a student's
having a stereo given the student has a car?

Solution: We need to compute P(D|C).

P(C) = 0.6,
P(D) = 0.3, and
P(C ꓵ D) = 0.1
Law 9 (multiplication rule for two dependent events): If
events A and B are dependent, then

P(A ꓵ B) = P(A) x P(B|A)

or
P(A ꓵ B) = P(B) x P(A|B)
 Independence
Independence illustrates a special relationship between events.
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not
alter the probability of the other. So, if events are independent,
then symbolically, we can express this as

If events A and B are not independent, then the events are

said to be dependent.
Example: A part-time student is enrolled in a course in
geometry (G) and a course in music (M). The probabilities that
the student will pass geometry, music, or both subjects are,
respectively, P(G) = 0.8, P(M) = 0.7, and P(G ꓵ M) = 0.56.
(a) What is the probability that the student will pass geometry
given that the student passes music?
(b) Are the events G and M independent?

Solution: (a) We need to find P(GIM).

𝑷 (𝑮 ⋂ 𝑴) 𝟎 . 𝟓𝟔
𝑷 ( 𝑮|𝑴 )= = =𝟎 .𝟖
𝑷 (𝑴 ) 𝟎.𝟕

Solution: (b) From part (a), P(G|M) = 0.8, and also P(G) = 0.8.
That is, P(G|M) = P(G). Thus, G and M are
independent.
 Law 10 (multiplication rule for two independent events): If
events A and B are independent, then

P(A ꓵ B) = P(A) x P(B)

Example: A part-time student is enrolled in a course in geometry (G)

and a course in music (M). The probabilities that the student will pass
geometry, music, or both subjects are, respectively, P(G) = 0.8, P(M) =
0.7, and P(G ꓵ M) = 0.56. Use this law to verify that the events G
and M are independent.

Solution: We need to show that P(G ꓵ M) = P(G) x P(M).

Given P(G ꓵ M) = 0.56, and P(G) x P(M) = 0.8 x 0.7 = 0.56.
Thus P(G ꓵ M) = P(G) x P(M), and so one can conclude that events G
and M are independent.
 Example: A consumer group studied the service
provided by fast-food restaurants in a given
community. One of the things they looked at was the
relationship between service and whether the server
had a high school diploma or not. The information is
summarized in the table below.

Let: Solve for:

G = the event of good service (a) P(G)
B = the event of poor service (b) P(N)
H = the event of having a high school (c) P(BꓵN)
diploma (d) P(B|N)
N = the event of not having a high school