January 12th, 2017
The last of the Directors Guild of America nominations were announced and the Oscars are really shaping up to be a one-movie show. That movie is Deadpool. I’m joking of course, but it did get yet another nomination. At this point, it could earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised. The film that is dominating Awards Season is La La Land and frankly I’ve lost count of the number of nominations it has received.
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June 14th, 2016
It is a much slower week than it was last time. In fact, the only two reviews this week were for releases that came out last week. That doesn't mean we don't have any good releases and there are a few contenders for Pick of the Week. Of these, Hello, My Name is Doris is the one I'm most interested in buying and the Blu-ray, while not loaded with extras, is the Pick of the Week. I'm also giving an honorary Puck of the Week to Dark Matter: Season 1, which is a Canadian Sci-fi series.
(On a side note, Amazon's list of new releases is a mess with a bunch of Game of Thrones and Star Trek titles, most of which don't even have images. This made sorting through the new releases a lot harder.)
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May 29th, 2016
It's a big week for first-run releases with four such films coming out. However, none of them are top-notch releases. Race is the best, but even then it is only worth a rental. Sadly, none of the limited releases, TV on DVD releases, catalog releases, etc. are really big releases either. Hello, My Name is Doris is a great movie, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand this week. I'm going with Veggie Tales: And Now It's Time for Silly Songs with Larry: The Complete Collection on DVD as the Pick of the Week. It really is a slow week for new releases.
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May 20th, 2016
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising led the way during Thursday night previews pulling in $1.67 million in 2,627 theaters last night. This is a third less than Neighbors earned, while the its internal multiplier will also be smaller, due to weaker reviews and the Sequel Effect. That said, it is still aiming at $30 million over the weekend, which is very likely more than it cost to make.
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March 22nd, 2016
At the beginning of the month, it was widely accepted that The Divergent Series: Allegiant would open in first place. However, two things happened to prevent that. Firstly, Zootopia not only opened faster, but its legs were much longer. Secondly, Allegiant failed to match even lowered expectations. This left Zootopia with an easy first place win over the weekend. However, it wasn't the only pleasant surprise, as Miracles from Heaven opened faster than expected. The overall box office slipped 3.3% from last weekend to $131 million. It was also 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by an 8.4% margin at $2.33 billion to $2.15 billion.
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March 18th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week. This includes The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which, at the beginning of the month, was widely expected to earn first place during its debut. However, Zootopia's success at the box office combined with Allegiant's failure with critics will likely result in Zootopia in earning first place, again. Miracles from Heaven is the latest faith-based film to hit theaters. It might struggle simply because there is too much recent competition for this still niche-market. Finally there's The Bronze, which is opening in just over 1,000 theaters. If it can avoid the Mendoza Line, or at least come close, then it will reach the top ten. That should be doable, maybe. This weekend last year, Insurgent earned first place with just over $52 million, while Cinderella earned second place with close to $35 million. I think Zootopia will come close to Cinderella, but Allegiant will fall far short of Insurgent and that will result in 2016 losing in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 17th, 2016
The winners of our 10 Outta 10 contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for 10 Cloverfield Lane opening weekend were...
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March 15th, 2016
The weekend box office was mostly positive with both Zootopia and 10 Cloverfield Lane finishing on the very high end of expectations over the weekend. On the other hand, the less said about the other new wide releases the better. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, down 17% to $135 million, but that's not a bad decline after Zootopia's monster opening. Compared to last year, the box office was up 2.5%, which isn't a great improvement, but any win now increases the chances 2016 will remain competitive with 2015 when we reach the point that Furious 7, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Jurassic World opened last year. Speaking of the year-over-year comparison, 2016's lead over 2015 slipped to 8.7% at $2.15 billion to $1.98 billion. That is still an impressive lead and one that will hopefully grow by the end of the month.
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March 13th, 2016
Zootopia is headed to another big win at the box office this weekend, with a modest 33% decline from last weekend keeping it well ahead of a pack of new releases. Its $50 million gross this time around takes it to $142.6 million in total domestically. With $288.7 million in the bank internationally, including over $100 million in China by the end of the weekend, Disney looks to have struck gold again. A sequel, theme park tie-ins and merchandizing seem likely, although Disney has so much of that going on already, what with Star Wars, Marvel, its Princess lines, and Pixar, that this might actually be more of a niche for them. (A half-billion-dollar-and-counting niche. Nice work if you can get it.)
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March 12th, 2016
As expected, Zootopia led the way at the box office on Friday. However, its Friday number was better tan anticipated at $12.02 million. It should have a real jump at the box office on Saturday, due to its family-friendly nature, giving the film a real shot at $50 million during its sophomore stint. Even if it just fails to get there, which is likely, that would be down only 30% or so from its opening frame, and would put the film’s running tally at over $140 million and would put it on pace for well over $250 million in the end. That’s very impressive, especially for this time of year.
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March 11th, 2016
10 Cloverfield Lane had the best results during its Thursday previews with $1.8 million in 2,500 theaters. This is the same as Insidious: Chapter 3 managed last year during its previews. That film opened with $22.69 million over the full weekend, which is a good target for 10 Cloverfield Lane to aim for. With amazing reviews, $25 million is within reach. We will know more tomorrow when we get Friday's estimates.
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March 11th, 2016
Of the three wide releases coming out next week, only The Divergent Series: Allegiant has a real shot at box office success. Although, very few people think it will match Insurgent at the box office, especially if its early reviews are any indication. Regardless of its critical scorn, the film should have no trouble earning first place and so it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Divergent Series: Allegiant
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Five on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 10th, 2016
There are four widish releases coming out this week, but only two of them are opening truly wide, while only one of them has any real box office power. That film is 10 Cloverfield Lane, which is the pseudo-sequel to Cloverfield. Very few people think it will match its predecessor, but it should open in a solid second place. That leaves Zootopia in the perfect spot to repeat on the top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, Cinderella led the way with $67.88 million. This is more than any one single film will make this year. However, the second biggest hit of last year was Run All Night at barely more than $11 million and no other film earned substantially more than $6 million. Perhaps the depth from 2016 will help it win in the year-over-year comparison. I'm not overly bullish that will happen, but we can't rule it out either.
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March 9th, 2016
The winners of our Hop to It contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Zootopia opening weekend were...
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March 4th, 2016
There are four wide releases coming out next week, maybe. I'm still not convinced all of them will open in 2,000 theaters or more. That said, 10 Cloverfield Lane should easily be the best of the four films and might earn more than the other three earn combined. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for 10 Cloverfield Lane.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Debbie Macomber's Cedar Cove: The Final Season on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2016
It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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