January 9th, 2017
There’s a lull in the quality and quantity of releases on the home market, one that will continue until the holiday releases start coming out. That’s not to say there are no releases worth picking up. Under the Shadow is an amazing horror film and the DVD is a Contender for Pick of the Week. However, the winner of that honor is The Criterion Collection release for His Girl Friday oni Blu-ray.
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November 9th, 2016
Doctor Strange added $118.7 million in 54 markets for totals of $240.4 million internationally and $325.5 million worldwide. It has already overtaken The Incredible Hulk in the MCU and is rapidly closing in on Captain America: The First Avenger. This weekend, the film debuted in first place in China with $44.12 million, including some previews, as well as in Brazil with $7.9 million. The film also expanded wide in Russia earning $8.49 million over the weekend for a total of $15.63 million. On the downside, the film has already opened in all major markets, except for Japan, where it doesn’t open until January. With what it has pulled in so far, anything less than $600 million will be seen as troubling, while anything more than $750 million will be seen as a success.
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November 1st, 2016
Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year.
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October 27th, 2016
There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 25th, 2016
2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future.
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October 23rd, 2016
Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million.
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October 22nd, 2016
Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween beat expectations on Friday to earn first place at the box office with with $9.4 million. I was a little more bullish than most, but even I didn’t think it would finish in first place on Friday. This is not quite as much as Madea’s Big Happy Family made on its opening day in 2011, but it is enough to put the film on pace for $25 million. Its reviews have risen to 33% positive, which isn’t bad for a Madea movie, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so the fans are clearly happy with the film.
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October 21st, 2016
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back pulled in $1.33 million during previews, which is approximately inline with expectations. It is just a hair below the $1.35 million The Accountant earned last week. However, The Accountant also earned significantly better reviews than Never Go Back is earning and that will likely hurt its legs. That said, we predicted $21 million and that seems safe at the moment.
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October 20th, 2016
It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in.
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October 19th, 2016
The winners of our Number Crunching contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Accountant opening weekend were...
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October 18th, 2016
The weekend box office was not good. The Accountant did beat expectations with $24.71 million, but the other wide releases missed expectations. As a result, the box office fell 6% from last weekend to $97 million. The weekend box office should never be below $100 million, outside of a few dead zones during the year. We’ve been below that mark too frequently this year. Worse still, this is 18% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015 at $8.78 billion to $8.43 billion. However, we are nearing the $325 million mark where we have reason to panic. Remember, The Force Awakens earned $650 million during 2015 and Rogue One is only expected to earn half that much this year. We need to maintain a lead that large, or else 2016 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison in the end.
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October 16th, 2016
As expected, The Accountant will be the comfortable winner at the box office this weekend, with Warner Bros. projecting a $24.71 million debut for the thriller. That’s almost identical to the opening enjoyed by The Girl on the Train last weekend, and about average for Ben Affleck. His previous Fall outings all opened in somewhat the same vicinity: Gone Girl hit $37.5 million on opening weekend in 2014; Argo posted $19.5 million in 2012, ahead of a very fruitful box office run and eventual Best Picture award; The Town started out with $23.8 million in 2010.
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October 15th, 2016
As expected, The Accountant earned first place at the box office on Friday. However, it did better than expected with a $9.075 million opening day. This is not quite as good as The Girl on the Train managed last week, but it could have a slightly better internal multiplier. Its reviews are mixed, but its CinemaScore is solid A, and that should help its legs. On the other hand, it is aimed at a more male audience, so that will likely hurt its legs a little. I think all of these factors balance out and it will make between $24 million and $25 million.
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October 14th, 2016
The Accountant got off to a healthy start with $1.35 million during Thursday night previews. This is more than both The Girl on the Train and Gone Girl managed. On the other hand, the film’s demographics are more male-dominated than those two films, and men are more likely to rush out to see a movie as early as possible. Its reviews have climbed up to 50% positive, so that won’t hurt its legs. We predicted $19 million and I’m fairly confident in that number. In fact, that might be on the low end of expectations going forward.
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October 13th, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue.
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October 12th, 2016
The winners of our Demon Night contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Girl on the Train opening weekend were...
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October 6th, 2016
While Kevin Hart: What Now? is opening truly wide next week, which is a bit of a surprise, there’s little doubt that The Accountant will come out on top at the box office. As such, it is the choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Accountant.
This is the second week with The Neon Demon on Blu-ray as a prize. Don’t worry about entering both contests, because if someone does end up winning two of the same prize, they will be offered a replacement horror movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2016
September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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July 20th, 2016
Thriller starring Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick, directed by David Fincher, opens October 14 ... Full Movie Details.
Christian Wolff is a math savant with more affinity for numbers than people. Behind the cover of a small-town CPA office, he works as a freelance accountant for some of the world’s most dangerous criminal organizations. With the Treasury Department’s Crime Enforcement Division, run by Ray King, starting to close in, Christian takes on a legitimate client: a state-of-the-art robotics company where an accounting clerk has discovered a discrepancy involving millions of dollars. But as Christian uncooks the books and gets closer to the truth, it is the body count that starts to rise.
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