September 5th, 2017
There are a few first-run releases coming out this week, but none of them did well enough in theaters and / or with critics to bother with above the fold, so to speak. There is one exception, The Big Sick, but it is only coming out on VOD this week. I’m hoping a Blu-ray screener is on its way. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are, in alphabetical order, Emmet Otter’s Jug-Band Christmas on DVD, Mr. Mom on Blu-ray, and Rebecca: Criterion Collection on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Alfred Hitchcock classic as the Pick of the Week.
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August 29th, 2017
It’s one of those weeks that are deceptively busy. The biggest new release of the week is Wonder Woman, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand. The biggest overall release is the The Lion King franchise on separate Blu-ray releases, but it’s at least a double-dip on Blu-ray. I think a triple-dip on Blu-ray. If it weren’t for these circumstances, they would be clear Pick of the Week contenders. Without those two movies, the next best is... My Cousin Rachel on Blu-ray. Its reviews are not quite Pick of the Week level, but it is the best of what we've got.
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June 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing.
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June 24th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.
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June 22nd, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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June 21st, 2017
Hare Krishna! The Mantra, The Movement and the Swami Who Started it All earned first place on the theater chart with $22,310 in one theater. The Journey debuted in second place with an average of $16,448 in two theaters. Up next were a trio of wide releases, including the overall number one film, Cars 3, with an average of $12,615. All Eyes on Me opened with an average of $10,698. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Wonder Woman, which spent its third week in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,271.
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June 20th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place over the weekend, but it did so with just $53.69 million, which is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, Wonder Woman remains one of the most impressive wide releases of 2017 when it comes to legs. Even if it didn’t earn another dollar, it would still have above average legs. All Eyez on Me went off to a fast start, but has a troubling internal multiplier, which doesn’t bode well for its future. Overall, the box office rose 31% from last weekend to $189 million. Unfortunately, it fell 19% from the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Fortunately, 2017 still has a sizable lead over 2016 at $5.16 billion to $5.00 billion.
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June 17th, 2017
As anticipated, Cars 3 is cruising to the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Disney predicting a weekend of $53.547 million, as of Sunday morning. While that’s a very respectable figure in anyone’s book (and continues Disney’s domination at the box office this year), it’s down markedly from Cars 2’s $66.1 million opening weekend in 2011, and points towards a final domestic box office around $150 million. If that proves to be the case, it’ll be the second-worst performer ever for Pixar, beating only The Good Dinosaur. Talk of a decline at Pixar is over-blown, in my opinion, but this is still a so-so result by their high standards.
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June 17th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little more subdued than expected, with just $19.5 million for the day. This is a higher opening day than The Lego Batman Movie managed, but family films have a much higher internal multiplier outside of summer, because kids won’t be able to see the movie during matinees on the Friday. If it has the same internal multiplier as Finding Dory had, it would open with $48 million. While Cars 3’s reviews are not as good, it earned an A from CinemaScore, the same as Dory did. Furthermore, Cars 3 is being seen much more by kids than Dory was, as that film had a larger share of adult animation fans, so this should also help its legs. It won’t match our prediction of $58 million, but $51 million is still a great result.
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June 16th, 2017
All Eyez on Me surprised analysts earning $3.1 million during its previews last night. This is better than The Mummy’s $2.66 million earned last weekend, while its reviews are also marginally better. Granted, its Tomatometer score is just 27% positive, so that could kill the film’s legs by Saturday, but this is still a very positive start and the movie will almost assuredly top our prediction of just under $20 million.
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June 15th, 2017
It’s a busy week with four truly wide releases, led by Cars 3. The latest film from Pixar is widely expected to earn first place at the box office, but it is part of the only Pixar franchise that isn’t a critical darling. Rough Night is playing in 3,000 theaters, but its early reviews are mixed and that's not going to help its box office numbers. All Eyez on Me is playing in 2,450 theaters, but its early reviews are even worse. Meanwhile, 47 Meters Down’s early reviews were 78% positive, but that has since changed for the worse. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Finding Dory and Central Intelligence, which earned a combined $170 million. There’s no way the four new releases coming out this week will match that. Even another strong hold by Wonder Woman won’t make a difference in the year-over-year competition and 2017 is going to lose.
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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May 11th, 2017
Biography of Tupac Shakur starring Demetrius Shipp, Jr. opens June 16 ... Full Movie Details.
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