July 27th, 2016
It’s a rather shallow week on the home market with the biggest release being Batman: The Killing Joke, which is a hot mess. More on that below. As for the best new release of the week, there are a handful of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, including Barbershop: The Next Cut, Deadline U.S.A., and Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVI. In the end, I picked Sing Street on Blu-ray for that title.
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July 12th, 2016
It is a very slow week for the home market. The biggest release of the week is The Divergent: Series Allegiant, which is a movie most people should avoid. (Looking at its box office numbers, most people did avoid it.) As for the best releases, Belladonna Of Sadness is amazing, but the screener arrived late and I don’t like handing out that title when I haven’t had a chance to check out the full release. Fortunately, we do have a backup contender, Everybody Wants Some on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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April 26th, 2016
Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million.
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April 21st, 2016
It's a bad week for new releases, as The Jungle Book is widely expected to dominate the box office. The only truly wide release is The Huntsman: Winter's War, but its reviews are simply terrible. There are also three films opening in select theaters and one of them should earn a spot in the top ten. They only need a little more than $1 million to do so. This weekend last year, the only true wide release was The Age of Adaline, which opened with $13 million on its way to becoming a midlevel hit. The Huntsman could double that opening, but it won't have the same legs.
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April 18th, 2016
Wow. As expected, The Jungle Book easily won first place on the box office chart, but did so with a much, much better than anticipated result of $103.26 million during its opening weekend. This is more than the rest of the box office earned. Barbershop: The Next Cut did well as counter-programming earning $20.24 million. On the other hand, Criminal missed the top five and barely managed to avoid the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $176 million, which was 68% more than last weekend and 47% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.19 billion at the box office, which is 9.2% / $270 million more than last year's pace. I didn't think 2016 had a chance to top 2015, but I'm really getting optimistic now.
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April 17th, 2016
2016 is shaping up to be just about the perfect year on all fronts for Disney. They started the year with Star Wars at the top of the box office; Zootopia far out-performed expectations; Captain America: Civil War, Alice Through the Looking Glass and Finding Dory position them perfectly for the Summer; and Doctor Strange and Star Wars: Rogue One are two of the most talked about movies coming at the end of the year. (Oh, and they’re slipping a long-awaited Steven Spielberg family-friendly film in the middle of all that.)
All-in-all, this could be a year of studio dominance the likes of which we haven’t seen since, well, last year, when Universal could do no wrong. Their incredible year really took flight at the beginning of April, when Furious 7 posted a monthly record $147 million opening weekend. The Jungle Book won’t hit those heights, but it will most likely be the second film to top $100 million in April, with Disney projecting a weekend of $103.57 million as of Sunday morning.
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April 15th, 2016
Hollywood's attempt to redefine the start of summer as "some time in April" continue this week with the release of The Jungle Book. This film is expected to dominate the box office this weekend and possibly next weekend as well. Barbershop: The Next Cut is also expected to do well, perhaps earning the biggest opening in the franchise, not taking into account inflation. Finally there's Criminal, which should just be happy with a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way, but Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and Unfriended were close behind. Fortunately, it looks like The Jungle Book will earn more than those three made combined. 2016 should have a good week on the year-over-year comparison.
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April 14th, 2016
The winners of our Don't Boss Me Around contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Boss opening weekend were...
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April 12th, 2016
The Boss was a little better than anticipated and that helped it overtake Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice during its opening weekend. The fact that BvS couldn't get first place three weekends in a row despite the lack of top-tier competition is really bad news. It's not the only film struggling at the box office, as Hardcore Henry missed the Mendoza Line during its opening. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $105 million. It was also down 20% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $2.99 billion, but its lead over 2015 has shrunk to 8.0% or $220 million. That's still a good figure, one that should grow next weekend when The Jungle Book opens.
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April 10th, 2016
Critics have not been kind to The Boss, and audiences are split 50–50 between liking it and hating it, but it will still post a respectable $23.48 million opening, according to Universal’s Sunday projection. Among recent Melissa McCarthy outings, that’s a little ahead of Tammy ($21.6 million on opening weekend), and a little behind Spy! ($29.1 million). Of more immediate interest, it’s almost exactly tied with Batman v Superman at the top of the chart.
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April 9th, 2016
As anticipated, The Boss earned first place on Friday earning $8.08 million to push Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice into second place, for now. That won’t last, probably. Bad reviews won't help its legs, but it is aiming at more mature women, which is a positive. Assuming those two things balance out, more or less, The Boss should earn $21 million to $22 million over the weekend.
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April 8th, 2016
The Boss pulled in $985,000 during its previews last night. This is below the $1.3 million earned by Tammy in 2014 and a little lower than the $1.08 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opened with a few weeks ago. The all three films earned similar reviews. This isn't terrible, but it does make matching our predictions harder.
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April 7th, 2016
There's some good news and some bad news with regards to the two new releases coming out this week. On the positive side, the competition is a lot weaker than it should be. On the negative side, so are the reviews. The Boss's reviews are weaker than Tammy's are. Additionally, Hardcore Henry's reviews went from more than 80% positive to less than 50% positive and it looks like it will continue to drop. It is playing in a lot more theaters than anticipated, so that's good news. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way with nearly $60 million. That's not much less than the top five will earn this weekend. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 6th, 2016
The winners of our Look Alive contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for God's Not Dead 2 opening weekend were...
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April 1st, 2016
There are two wide releases next week, but The Boss should dominate Hardcore Henry at the box office. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Boss.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, maybe.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, potentially.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, most likely.
The Twist for the month of April is April Fools. Two of the winners will receive two movies, the other will be the April Fool and will get a couple of exercise videos. I have reviewed more of those than I remember.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2016
March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad.
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