May 17th, 2016
The Deadpool Blu-ray arrived last Tuesday, which is par for course for Fox, as their screeners always seem to arrive as late as possible while still technically not being late. There are updates below with the extras. On a side note, the film is so good, I was tempted to make it the Pick of the Week for the second week in a row. However, in the end I went with Dark Passage, a classic Film Noir with a famous hook. The Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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February 12th, 2016
Deadpool set two records for biggest February previews and biggest previews for an R-rated film with $12.7 million. ... I think it is safe to assume Deadpool 2 is on its way. The studio was expecting between $60 million and $65 million over the four-day weekend, but studios tend to downplay expectations so they can claim victory, even if the film is a little weaker than anticipated. With the record previews, I think it is safe to say it will top those expectations and even our $75 million prediction seems low.
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February 5th, 2016
Hail, Caesar! got off to a relatively good start on Thursday earning $543,000 at 1,815 theaters. This puts it in between the previews for Dirty Grandpa and The 5th Wave, meaning it is on pace for close to $11 million over the weekend. Its positive reviews could help it over $11 million, which would match predictions perfectly.
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February 2nd, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it.
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January 24th, 2016
With the weekend jam-packed with new releases and Oscar hopefuls, and thrown off course by Winter Storm Jonas, it’s perhaps fitting that a tale of battles against the elements will come out on top. The Revenant will be down 50% from last weekend’s MLK Holiday-inflated number to $16 million, but that will be enough to leapfrog over Ride Along 2 and into first place. The Leonardo DiCaprio film, which remains a good bet for a fistful of Oscars, although perhaps not the major prize, has $119 million to date. Also overtaking Ride Along 2 to move back to second place is Star Wars: The Force Awakens with $14.26 million for a weekend and $879.3 million in total to date. With $1.06 billion internationally, the film is drawing close to becoming the third film to earn over $2 billion worldwide.
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January 23rd, 2016
While some are blaming the storm for hurting Friday night box office numbers, I think it is wiser to point the finger at the reviews instead. So far, The Boy has earned the best reviews, but with a Tomatometer Score of just 23% positive, that's damning it with faint praise. At the box office, Dirty Grandpa did the best of the new releases, earning second place with $4.2 million. It's early in the year, but it is safe to say its 7% positive reviews will be among the worst of any 2016 release when the year is over. Its CinemaScore was just a B, which is bad. Remember, CinemaScore is based on ratings given to a movie by people who were interested enough to see it on opening day. Anything less than a B+ suggests poor word-of-mouth. It did earn about about 10% more than That Awkward Moment's opening day. Additionally, That Awkward Moment had to deal with The Super Bowl on Sunday, so Dirty Grandpa should have better legs and should pull in $11 million.
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January 22nd, 2016
The 5th Wave started off on a soft note with $475,000 in previews last night. To put this into perspective, The Giver, another Young Adult Novel Adaptation, earned $750,000 during its previews back in 2014. That film only managed an opening of $12.31 million and a domestic total of $45.09 million. At this point, it looks like The 5th Wave will open with less than $10 million.
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January 21st, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, all of which are expected to earn similar openings. None of which are expected to compete for the top five. The 5th Wave is the latest Young Adult Adaptation and as I'm writing this at about 10 am on Thursday, it is still the only new release with any reviews. Dirty Grandpa is the widest release of the week, but with no reviews, it is hard to judge how well it will do. Finally there's The Boy. If it can match The Forest, I'm sure STX Entertainment will be happy. The weakness in the new releases doesn't mean we won't have a new number one film, as The Revenant seems poised to climb to first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, American Sniper remained dominant with nearly $65 million. It's a near certainty that all three new releases won't make that much this year. There's a chance the top five combined won't make that much this year. 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 15th, 2016
Next weekend, there are three wide releases coming out. None of these look to be huge hits, but it doesn't look like any of them will be bombs either. The 5th Wave and Dirty Grandpa are both expected to open in 2,800 theaters and they will likely be a coin-toss as to which one tops the week's list of new releases. Speaking of which, The 5th Wave won the coin-toss and it will be the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The 5th Wave.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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