November 6th, 2019
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw is easily the biggest release of the week, but it is not the best. Pick of the Week contenders include Galaxy Quest and Good Omens, as well as Alice, Sweet Alice, which arrived late. I’m going with Good Omens, but all three are must haves.
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November 5th, 2019
Fast and the Furious is one of the largest franchises around with the nine installments so far earning nearly $6 billion worldwide. However, it appears to be off its peak as far as ticket sales are concerned with Hobbs & Shaw having the lowest box office haul since Fast Five exploded the franchise into the top-tier. Is the franchise off its peak in terms of quality as well? If so, is Hobbs & Shaw still worth checking out? Or is it time for fans to move on?
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October 17th, 2019
It’s a really slow week with Crawl being the biggest release of the week, and it wasn’t a monster hit at the box office. Fortunately, it is also the best DVD / Blu-ray release of the week and was the only real contender for Pick of the Week.
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September 12th, 2019
It: Chapter Two matched its domestic opening weekend internationally, earning $94.0 million on 26,790 screens in 75 markets over the weekend. Unlike the film’s domestic debut, its international opening was close to on par with the first It’s debut, in local currencies not counting inflation. In fact, Chapter Two had a faster start in Russia earning $9.20 million to $7.28 million for its predecessor. The film had nearly identical openings in both Mexico ($9.14 million) and in the U.K. ($9.06 million). The film opens in France this weekend, while it doesn’t finish off its international run until it debuts in Japan in November.
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September 10th, 2019
It: Chapter Two dominated the box office by almost as large a margin as expected. It certainly did well enough that I’m considering it a victory. It earned $91.06 million over the weekend, which is almost exactly what the total box office made last weekend. More importantly, it is almost as much as the top five made this weekend last year, giving the weekend box office a massive increase of 48% from last weekend to $136 million and more importantly, this was 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a massive margin of $500 million or 6.0% at $7.83 billion to $8.33 billion. However, we did catch up to 2017’s ticket sales pace, so as long as we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, it won’t look like a disaster at the end of the year.
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September 8th, 2019
It: Chapter Two is missing expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $91.0 million. However, while this is 10% lower than predicted, it is still more than enough to earn second place on the September chart. In fact, it is nearly 70% higher than the third biggest September debut of all time, The Nun, which opened this weekend last year. That’s really going to help the year-over-year comparison. As for the film’s long-range chances, they are mixed. Horror movies rarely have long legs and this is also true of sequels, so horror sequels almost never do well long-term. Additionally, this film’s reviews are much weaker than the first film’s reviews, but on the positive side, it did match its predecessor when it came to the CinemaScore, as both earned B plus ratings.
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September 5th, 2019
It’s going to be a short prediction column, because there’s not much to talk about. It: Chapter Two is the only wide release of the week and there weren’t even any wide releases last weekend to give It any real competition. In fact, two of the likely top five films have already been in theaters for more than a month. last year, The Nun led the way with $53.81 million. It: Chapter Two could double that during its opening weekend.
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September 4th, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw had a very steep decline in China, but still managed to earn first place on the international chart with $37.9 million in 68 markets over the weekend for totals of $528.7 million internationally and $$687.9 million worldwide. The film plummeted 72% during its second weekend in China earning $27.65 million for a two-week total of $170.36 million. This drop-off is extreme, even for China. However, it doesn’t matter. The movie will hit $200 million in that market and $700 million worldwide, which is more than enough to break even and get yet another installment in the franchise.
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September 4th, 2019
There were no new wide releases this past weekend and unfortunately, the holdovers weren’t able to take advantage. Angel Has Fallen remained on top, but it did so with only $11.80 million over the three-day weekend. This wasn’t enough to match expectations or last year’s number one film, Crazy Rich Asians. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend, falling to $89 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than this weekend last year, putting 2019 behind 2018 by a 6.2% or $510 million at $7.64 billion to $8.15 billion. On the positive note, this is likely the low point of the year and the Fall looks a lot stronger, starting with It: Chapter Two this coming weekend.
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September 1st, 2019
There were no wide releases this weekend, so I really thought the holdovers would hold on a lot better than they did. According to estimates, Angel Has Fallen has fallen 46% during its second weekend of release to $11.58 million and is projected to earn $15 million over the four-day weekend. A 46% sophomore stint decline would have been great, if this weren’t a holiday weekend. As it is, it’s a little disappointing, but the film will still do well enough to earn a profit. ... “Profitable disappointment.” How many times can that phrase be used this year?
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August 31st, 2019
There were no new wide releases on Friday, and sadly the holdovers didn’t thrive as a result. It’s going to be a brutal weekend at the box office. Angel Has Fallen topped the chart on Friday, but wasn’t able to match expectations with $2.9 million. That said, it is still on pace for $15 million over the full four-day weekend for a two-week total of $44 million, which is a good result for this time of year.
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August 29th, 2019
It’s the final weekend of the summer, Labor Day weekend. Officially it is the final weekend of the summer, but if you’ve been paying attention to the box office, then you know summer really ended with the release of Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw weeks ago. This long weekend, movie studios have just given up and there are no wide, or even semi-wide releases to talk about. This means the top five will look about the same as it did last weekend with Angel Has Fallen on top, while some of the holdovers, specifically Good Boys and The Lion King, should take advantage of the lack of competition. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians remained the top film at the box office and will likely beat any of this week’s offerings. In fact, none of the films playing this year will earn as much over four days as Crazy Rich Asians did over three.
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August 28th, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw roared back into first place on the international chart earning $119.4 million in 68 markets for totals of $440.4 million internationally and $588.1 million worldwide. This includes a first place, three-day $99.08 million debut in China, for a total opening in the market of $103.06 million. Granted, films tend to have short legs in China, but a start like this will still give the film an easy time reaching $700 million worldwide, which is enough to be a financial success, even if it doesn’t match the previous installments in the franchise.
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August 27th, 2019
Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year.
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August 25th, 2019
There is some good news to talk about and that’s been depressingly rare this year. Angel Has Fallen is beating expectations with an estimated opening of $21.25 million. This opening is just behind London Has Fallen’s debut. Additionally, Angel has better reviews and matched the previous film’s A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have similar legs. It is too soon to tell how it will do internationally, but given the franchise’s performance so far, I remain optimistic.
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August 24th, 2019
Angel Has Fallen earned an estimated $7.9 million on Friday. Amazingly, this is an improvement over the $7.51 million earned by London has Fallen during its opening day. Most people, myself included, assumed this film would suffer a deep decline. This film also earned better reviews, while both films earned an A minus from CinemaScore. On the other hand, the film did earn less during the 24-hour Friday period, so that suggests a slightly smaller opening weekend. Even so, it will beat our prediction with just over $21 million.
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August 22nd, 2019
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them, Angel Has Fallen, is widely expected to do anything at the box office. Overcomer is a faith-based film and those are a risk at the box office, but the people behind this one do have a good track record. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the widest ever release for Fox Searchlight and its reviews are easily the best of the week, but the buzz suggests that won’t be enough to thrive. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians dipped just 6% earning just over $24 million. No film is going to match that figure this week. There’s a chance all three wide releases won’t match that figure this week, combined.
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August 21st, 2019
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood started its international run in earnest with $48.53 million over the three-day weekend, $55.22 million including previews and weekdays. It was playing on 10,054 screens in 59 markets and has a running tally of $65.44 million after two weeks of release. Its biggest market of the weekend was either France or the U.K., depending on how you look at it. In the former, it earned first place with $7.08 million on 683 screens. It also opened in first place in the latter with $6.22 million on 708 screens over the weekend, and had a total opening of $9.16 million. It also had strong openings in Germany ($5.06 million on 820 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million); Australia ($4.52 million on 299 screens); and Spain ($2.41 million on 869 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.63 million).
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August 20th, 2019
It’s the dog days of summer and Good Boys was the only new release with an impressive debut of $21.40 million, while The Angry Birds Movie 2’s $16.09 million six-day debut isn’t a bad start for this time of year. There were a few holdovers to earn more than $10 million over the weekend, so the overall box office wasn’t a disaster, just a disappointment down 9.5% from last weekend to $119 million. More importantly, this is 7.7% lower the the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $7.35 billion, but this is 6.3% or $490 million behind last year’s pace. At this point, I don’t think it is possible for 2019 to catch up, but hopefully it can put together a strong last few months to at least save face. Additionally, the international box office is doing better, so worldwide it is close to a wash.
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August 18th, 2019
Good Boys and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw are topping the weekend box office chart, so while the overall box office isn’t doing well, Universal is having a great weekend. Good Boys is leading the way with $21.0 million, which is not only better than our predictions, but better than Universal’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. It’s not all rosy, as the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore don’t suggest really long legs, while this is not the type of film to do well internationally. In fact, it is only pulling in $2.1 million during its opening weekend overseas, including $1.0 million in the U.K.
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August 17th, 2019
Good Boys earned first place on the Friday chart with $8.31 million. Universal is projecting a $20.8 million opening weekend based on this start, which would give the film a rather low internal multiplier. This is due to its reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore, neither of which are bad, but they are not great either. It would still be the fastest opening for a comedy all year and this is the first R-rated comedy to top the chart since The Boss debuted more than three years ago. On the one hand, this is great news for Good Boys. On the other hand, what the hell happened to the genre? R-rated comedies used to regularly earn $100 million or more at the box office.
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August 15th, 2019
Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend.
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August 14th, 2019
Nezha remains the top draw in its native China and internationally. This weekend, it pulled in $68.97 million for a total of $512.19 million after nearly four full weeks of release. This doesn’t just make the movie the highest-grossing animated film in China, it more than doubles the previous record set by Zootopia. Additionally, it has entered the top five all-time in China, in local currencies, and will soon climb into fourth place over Operation Red Sea.
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August 12th, 2019
The weekend box office was mediocre with many of the new releases missing expectations, and some of them had low expectations to begin with. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw was able to remain in first place, but on the low end of expectations, leaving Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark as the biggest positive news of the weekend. Overall, the weekend box office was 11% lower than last weekend at $132 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year, leaving 2019 further behind last year’s pace. 2019 is now behind 2018 by 6.2% or $480 million at $7.16 billion to $7.64 billion.
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August 11th, 2019
August 10th, 2019
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark led the way on Friday with $7.86 million. The film’s reviews are Certified Fresh at 80% positive, but it only managed a C from CinemaScore. To be fair, this isn’t a bad result for a horror film, but it does mean it likely won’t have great legs and will sink into second place over the full weekend. It will still beat our prediction and could even become CBS Films’ best opening of all time. Right now, it is on pace to come close to The Woman in Black’s current record with about $20 million during the opening weekend. It would be ironic is CBS Films set the company record now, as it is ceasing theatrical releases and instead shifting towards streaming content.
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August 8th, 2019
There are five wide or semi-wide releases coming out this weekend, which is just too many and practically guarantees at least one of them will flop at the box office. Of these films, Dora and the Lost City of Gold is the only one expected to compete for first place, while Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark should do well as a low-budget horror movie. Unfortunately, The Kitchen and The Art of Racing in the Rain are not connecting with critics and that will likely keep them out of the top five. Finally, Brian Banks is opening in just 1,240 theaters and that could keep it out of the top ten. This weekend last year, The Meg opened with $45 million. No film playing this weekend will match that and I don’t think this year’s depth is going to compensate, meaning we are going to lose in the year-over-year competition yet again.
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August 8th, 2019
It was a busy weekend on the theater average chart with five films in the $10,000 club. Luce led the way with an average of $26,597 in five theaters. This bodes well for any future expansion. The Nightingale was next with an average of $20,041 in two theaters. Jay Myself arguably had a stronger opening, earning $18,909 in one theater over the weekend for a five-day debut of $27,571. Exit managed an average of $16,221 in two theaters, which is excellent for a foreign-language film and hopefully means more Asian movies will be released here. The final film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office champ, Hobbs and Shaw, with an average of $14,117.
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August 8th, 2019
Nezha continued to grow in China, earning $128.49 million over the weekend, which was not only the best film in China, but the biggest movie internationally. Furthermore, the film has earned $342.33 million, putting it ahead of Zootopia as the biggest animated film of all time in that market. And it didn’t just tiptoe ahead of the competition. Nezha is over $100 million above Zootopia in China. I really hope it gets a release here, as not enough Chinese movies are seen outside of Asia.
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August 7th, 2019
It was a mixed weekend at the box office with Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missing lofty expectations by a huge margin and this left the box office 8.4% lower than last weekend at $149 million. More importantly, this was 6.9% higher than the same weekend last year. 2019 closed the gap between it and last year a little bit and it is now down by 6.2% or $460 million at $6.96 billion to $7.42 billion. Unfortunately, we really needed a much faster start from Hobbs and Shaw to have a good month, so this might be as good as it gets until September.
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August 4th, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missed even the low end of predictions with an estimated opening weekend of just $60.8 million. This is not a good start for a film that cost $200 million to make. Additionally, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore do not suggest long enough legs to make up for this opening. Fortunately, the film is doing a lot better internationally with an estimated opening of $120 million in 63 markets. Furthermore, this number doesn’t include China, because the film doesn’t open there until the end of the month. (It has also yet to open in France, Italy, and Japan, but it will earn more in China than those three markets combined.) The film is opening well behind The Fate of the Furious in most markets, including Russia where it managed $8.20 million on 1,766 screens, compared to $14.26 million on 1,470 screens for the previous film. It was even worse in the U.K. at $7.85 million in 610 theaters vs. $17.58 million on 572. Overall, the film is more in line with Fast Five than the other recent films in the franchise. This is still enough to earn a profit, especially if it does well in China, but the spin-off won’t replace the main films in the Fast and the Furious franchise like I thought it had a chance of doing.
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August 3rd, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is going to miss predictions, but it did bounce back from weak previews with $23.72 million on Friday. This is higher than Mission: Impossible—Fallout managed during its opening day, despite worse preview numbers. This bodes well for the film’s legs. Its reviews are slightly better than the previous installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise, while its A minus from CinemaScore is a little weaker. Universal is projecting a $60 million opening weekend after this result, but studios tend to underestimate these things so it looks like their movies over-performed in the end, so I think $61 million or $62 million is more likely.
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August 2nd, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw started its box office run with just $5.8 million on Thursday night. That’s not enough. I wasn’t expecting it to reach the same heights at the most recent installments in the Fast and the Furious franchise, as different release dates have different potentials when it comes to previews. However, I was expecting it to earn more than $6 million Mission: Impossible—Fallout earned roughly this time last year. The film’s reviews are good enough that it’s legs shouldn’t be an issue, but this start is worrying. Hopefully it will perform better tonight and reach its full potential over the weekend.
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August 1st, 2019
It’s the first weekend of August and we have the last potential monster hit of the summer debuting. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise. A lot of people think it will perform weaker at the box office than the other recent films in the franchise, but I think they are underestimating the box office appeal of Dwayne Johnson. Holdovers will be led by The Lion King and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, both of which should still be major factors at the box office. This weekend last year, Mission: Impossible—Fallout and Christopher Robin combined for just under $60 million. Even throwing in The Spy Who Dumped Me and the top three barely pass $70 million. Hobbs and Shaw should earn more than that by itself, giving 2018 a very strong win in the year-over-year competition.
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August 1st, 2019
July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year.
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February 1st, 2019
Action movie starring Dwayne Johnson, Jason Statham, and Idris Elba opens August 2 ... Full Movie Details.
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