March 21st, 2017
It is an interesting week on the home market with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominating the competition. However, it is only coming out on Video on Demand and doesn’t come out till Friday. As for Tuesday releases, there are a few contenders, but no film that immediately jumps out as the Pick of the Week. If you go with quality, extras, and overall audience appeal, then Sing on Blu-ray Combo Pack comes out on top. I would also definitely checkout Insecure: Season One and Lifeboat, if you don’t already own the latter.
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December 20th, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $37,306. This wasn’t that far above the second place film, Fences, which earned an average of $32,366. Meanwhile, last week’s winner, La La Land, was pushed into third place with an average of $20,510.
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December 19th, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the weekend box office chart with $155.08 million. This is well over twice as much as every other release combined. It is nearly twice as much as last weekend’s total box office. This helped the box office grow by 154%, reaching $211 million. Sadly, this was over $100 million or 32% lower than the same weekend last year when The Force Awakens dominated the chart. The year-over-year decline can be best summed up as within expectations. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive amount at $10.47 billion to $9.96 billion, but that will change as we see more numbers for Rogue One come in. On a more big picture look, Disney became the first studio ever to hit $7 billion worldwide in one year. They now have the record for biggest yearly domestic box office and biggest yearly worldwide box office, while it is just $160 million away from the international record as well.
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December 13th, 2016
La La Land dominated the per theater chart with an average of $176,221 in five theaters. This is not only the best of the year, it is the second best ever for a live-action film, behind just The Grand Budapest Hotel average of $202,792 in four theaters. Jackie was well back with an average of $18,933 in 26 theaters. Had La La Land not come out this weekend, this would have been big news. Now it might get lost in the crowd. Lion remained in the $10,000 club for the third weekend in a row with an average of $11,224 in 15 theaters.
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December 13th, 2016
As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.
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December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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December 11th, 2016
Moana will get to enjoy one last weekend at the top of the box office chart, in spite of a good debut for Office Christmas Party. Disney’s animated adventure will post about $18.8 million in its third weekend, for $145 million to date. It’s beginning to lag behind the performance of Frozen, which made $22.6 million in its third weekend in wide release, and had amassed $164.8 million. That still puts Moana well on course for $300 million domestically, although $350 million is looking like a stretch. Internationally, Moana will earn around $23.5 million this weekend, taking its total overseas to $93.8 million, and its global haul to $238.8 million.
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December 10th, 2016
As expected, Office Christmas Party earned first place on Friday with $6.6 million. Its reviews have settled at 44% positive, which is lower than you would like, but fine for this type of release. Likewise, it earned a B from CinemaScore. Neither figure will help its legs, but neither will really hurt them either. By comparison, The Night Before earned $3.56 million during its opening day on its way to a $9.88 million opening weekend. If Office Christmas Party has the same internal multiplier, then it will earn $18.3 million this weekend. However, The Night Before earned 66% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. Office Christmas Party’s weaker performances with critics and audiences will likely result in a lower legs and an opening weekend of just over $17 million.
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December 8th, 2016
There is only one wide release this week, Office Christmas Party. There are also two films expanding semi-wide, Miss Sloane and Nocturnal Animals. I doubt both of them will make the top ten, but I would be equally surprised if neither did. At the beginning of the month, I assumed Office Christmas Party would win this weekend, but it is looking like Moana has a shot at the threepeat. It could be a really close race with the two films changing positions on the daily chart. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, In the Heart of the Sea bombed earning just $11.05 million on a $100 million budget. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 earned first place with $11.41 million. Both Office Christmas Party and Moana will top that with ease. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them might also beat that. On the other hand, last year there were four films that earned more than $10 million, while this year there will be no more than 3. I still think 2016 will win, but it could be close.
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December 6th, 2016
Jackie led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $55,743 in five theaters. Given this start and add in its Oscar buzz and the film has a real shot at expanding wide. Last week’s winner, Lion, fell to second place with an average of $16,651 in seven theaters. Manchester by the Sea continues its impressive run with an average of $14,592 in 156 theaters. It still has room to grow. Miss Sloane earned an average of $11,213 in four theaters. It is reportedly expanding wide this weekend, but that can mean anything from a few hundred theaters to well over 2,000. Finally, Things to Come opened with an average of $11,030 in three theaters.
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December 4th, 2016
The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office.
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December 1st, 2016
November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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November 29th, 2016
Lion led the way on the theater average chart this week with an average of $30,840 in four theaters. Its reviews are great and it could become a sleeper hit throughout the Christmas holidays. Up next was Manchester by the Sea with an average of $25,541 in 48 theaters. It still has plenty of room to expand and its Awards Season buzz is growing. Miss Sloane opened with an average of $19,932 in three theaters. This is good, but not good enough to think it will expand truly wide. The overall number one film, Moana, was next with an average of $14,615. The final film in the $10,000 club was Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them with an average of $10,880.
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November 27th, 2016
Disney’s domination of Thanksgiving weekend will continue in 2016, with Moana expected to post $55.5 million for the three-day weekend and $81.1 million in total, making it either the second-best or best Thanksgiving opener of all time, depending on what you consider an “opener.” Disney is claiming second place for Moana behind Frozen, which had a $67.4 million 3-day weekend, and $93.6 million 5-day weekend back in 2013. That film had already opened in a single theater the weekend before, so if we want to split hairs, it technically wasn’t opening that weekend. Either way you look at it, it’s a great start for Moana, and another handsome win for Disney. The studio can now claim the top six 5-day Thanksgiving debuts and and the top eight 3-day Thanksgiving openings of all time.
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November 25th, 2016
While Thanksgiving weekend is a boon for wide releases, the number of potential monster hits in theaters scares away a lot of the limited releases. There are some great releases, like Always Shine and Baden Baden, as well as some bigger releases, like Lion and Miss Sloane. Hopefully they will find audiences in limited release.
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