February 13th, 2019
It’s a shallow week on the home market. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody was a monster hit, especially internationally. It isn’t a Pick of the Week contender, but we do have a trio of contenders: At Eternity’s Gate, Audition, and Shoplifters. It’s a close race, but Shoplifters came out on top.
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January 30th, 2019
We are still stuck in the dead zone on the home market, as it is too late for summer blockbusters, but too early for the major fall hits. The biggest first-run release of the week is The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, which says a lot. The best is The Wife, which earns our Pick of the Week. However, The Night is Short, Walk on Girl was a close competitor.
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November 12th, 2018
The weekend box office had a few success stories and a couple of misses. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch was one of the success stories with $67.57 million, which matches predictions perfectly. The other two new wide releases were less successful. Overlord did okay, but it will need a lot of help to break even any time soon. On the other hand, The Girl in the Spider’s Web likely won’t break even. The overall box office rose 15% from last weekend hitting $167 million. This is 11% more from the same weekend last year. I really wasn’t expecting 2018’s losing streak to end after just one weekend. This is great news. 2018’s lead over 2017 is practically the same as it was last weekend at $1.01 billion or 11% at $9.95 billion to $8.94 billion.
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November 4th, 2018
Fox is projecting a $50 million opening for Bohemian Rhapsody over the weekend. When I see a studio estimate a number like that, I always assume they overestimated, and not just because it topped predictions, because a “$50 million opening weekend” sounds a lot better than a “$49 million opening weekend” and getting that one day of extra hype could help its box office chances. It would require a 2.71 internal multiplier to get there, which would be a little high for a film like this. Its reviews are good, but not great, while audience scores are better at 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak and an A from CinemaScore.
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November 3rd, 2018
Bohemian Rhapsody dominated the Friday box office chart with $18.4 million. This is better than our prediction, but not quite as good as some were expecting after Thursday’s previews. Its reviews are good, but not great, while it earned an A from CinemaScore and a 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak, so audiences clearly like the film more than critics did. The film could come close to $50 million over the weekend, but it probably won’t quite get there.
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November 2nd, 2018
Bohemian Rhapsody started its domestic run with $3.9 million in previews, which is in line with our prediction, for the most part. Compared to A Star is Born, it is better or worse, depending on how you look at things. A Star is Born had three days of previews earning $4.5 million in total, but if you only look at Thursday night, its previews were $3.2 million. Had the film only had one day of previews, it would have earned somewhere in-between those two results. Additionally, Bohemian Rhapsody’s reviews are weaker than A Star is Born’s reviews are and its target demographic is more likely to rush out opening night, so its legs won’t be as long. That said, it has an excellent chance at earning more than our $36 million prediction over the full weekend.
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November 1st, 2018
November is the start of the holiday blockbuster season and practically every week from now until after Christmas is an excellent weekend to release a film. (The weekend after Thanksgiving is the only real exception.) This year, things don’t get off to a tremendously fast start, as there are no monster hits. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody could be a $100 million hit domestically. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and a lot of direct competition from bigger family films coming out this month. Finally, Nobody’s Fool is the first Tyler Perry movie not released by Lionsgate. It is not being heavily advertised as a Tyler Perry movie either. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. No film opening this year will match that. All three films combined won’t match that. 2018's winning streak will end.
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November 1st, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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June 18th, 2018
Comedy starring Tiffany Haddish opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details.
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