By 82nd_Academy_Awards,_Tyler_Perry_-_army_mil-66455-2010-03-09-180359.jpg: Sgt. Michael Connors - 302nd Mobile Public Affairs Detachmentderivative work: Beao [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Best known as a Director based on credits in that role in 30 films, with $1,024,494,330 worldwide aggregate box office (rank #196)
This graph shows Tyler Perry’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After having only one new wide release debut last week, this week will see three arrive in theaters. The largest of the three is 20th Century Studios’ oft-delayed action comedy, Free Guy, starring Ryan Reynolds and Jodie Comer. The film about a bank teller who discovers he is actually a background player in an open-world video game, opens in 4,165 theaters. The count is enough to topple Jungle Cruise from its two week reign as widest release, as the latter drops to 3,900 theaters this week. Next up is the biographical drama Respect, from United Artists Releasing and starring Jennifer Hudson as the late “Queen of Soul”, Aretha Franklin. The film opens in 3,207 locations. Lastly, is Sony Pictures, Don’t Breathe 2, the follow up to Don’t Breathe, which earned a worldwide total of $170 million nearly five years ago. The horror film, which returns Stephen Lang as “The Blind Man” releases in 3,005 theaters…
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Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a great start by earning $1.1 million during previews on Thursday. This is the biggest previews result for a Tyler Perry film, topping the $1 million Acrimony earned last year. Madea tends to attract older women who are the demographic least likely to rush out for previews, so this start is more impressive than its raw number would suggest. The early reviews are mixed, which is better than expected, but there are only four reviews on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment, so that could change rapidly.
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It’s a shallow week on the home market. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody was a monster hit, especially internationally. It isn’t a Pick of the Week contender, but we do have a trio of contenders: At Eternity’s Gate, Audition, and Shoplifters. It’s a close race, but Shoplifters came out on top.
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Bohemian Rhapsody’s final weekend numbers beat expectations and it even beat Sunday’s estimates, which is excellent news for Fox. It’s also good news for the box office as a whole, which rose 39% from last weekend reaching $145 million. On the down wide, $145 million isn’t that much more than what Thor: Ragnarok earned this weekend last year and 2018 was behind 2017 by 19% on the year-over-year comparison. Fortunately, the gains during the week were better than the loses over the weekend and 2018’s lead over 2017 grew to $1.002 billion or 11.5% as of the end of business on Sunday, at $9.73 billion to $8.73 billion. This lead will begin to shrink at a rather rapid pace, but there’s not enough weeks left in the year to completely evaporate this lead.
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November is the start of the holiday blockbuster season and practically every week from now until after Christmas is an excellent weekend to release a film. (The weekend after Thanksgiving is the only real exception.) This year, things don’t get off to a tremendously fast start, as there are no monster hits. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody could be a $100 million hit domestically. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and a lot of direct competition from bigger family films coming out this month. Finally, Nobody’s Fool is the first Tyler Perry movie not released by Lionsgate. It is not being heavily advertised as a Tyler Perry movie either. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. No film opening this year will match that. All three films combined won’t match that. 2018's winning streak will end.
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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As long time readers know, summer is the worst time of the year for the home market. Summer blockbusters are taking up everyone’s attention and it is still too soon for the rush of TV on DVD releases. The biggest first-run release of the week is Acrimony, which is only for Tyler Perry fans. As for the best of the rest, there are a handful of Pick of the Week contenders, including two Anime titles. To be more accurate, only one of them came out this week, as it took a couple of weeks for my screener of My Hero Academia: Season Two, Volume Two: Limited Edition Combo Pack to arrive. It is the Pick of the Week.
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Life of the Party only managed $700,000 during its previews, which is well below the $985,000 The Boss managed two years ago. If this film has the same legs, it will open with just under $17 million. Granted, Life of the Party is earning betterreviews, so it could perform a little better over the weekend, but matching our $21 million prediction might be asking too much.
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A Quiet Place not only topped predictions, it nearly doubled them earning $50.20 million during its opening weekend. The rest of the new releases also beat expectations, albeit by much smaller margins. Blockers nearly matched its production budget, while Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season didn’t embarrass themselves. Add in some strong holds and the total box office was a surprisingly robust $162 million. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind 2017 by $60 million or 1.8% at $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion. This is half as much as the gap was this time last week, which is great news going forward.
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If it weren’t for Black Panther, A Quiet Place would be the biggest surprise hit of the year so far. The film earned $50 million during its opening weekend, on a budget of just $17 million. Its initial ad buy was probably less than $25 million, meaning this film earned more in its opening weekend that its combined budget. However, I assume Paramount Pictures put in at least another $10 million ad buy on Saturday after Friday’s estimates showed up. As for the film’s future, its reviews are close to Award-worthy and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is impressive for a horror film. Additionally, the film saw its score rise on Saturday when compared to Friday, which is not common for a new release. Previews plus the opening day rush usually result in small declines for films aimed at this target audience. It is still a horror film and next week there is big competition and direct competition, so its legs likely won’t be great, but its nearly guaranteed a profit by this time next week.
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There are only two wide releases this week, A Quiet Place and Blockers, both of which are expected to be midlevel hits. There are also two films opening semi-wide, Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season, neither of which are expected to open in the top five. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby led the way with $26.36 million during its second weekend of release. A Quiet Place could top that, but even if it does, last year’s depth will probably keep 2017 behind 2018 in the year-over-year comparison.
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Ready Player One not only opened in first place over the weekend, but its three-day total of $41.77 million was Steven Spielberg’s best opening weekend as a director in almost exactly a decade. Acrimony was a solid second place finisher with $17.17 million. God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness missed the top ten. Overall, the box office rose 4.9% from last weekend hitting $136 million, but this was still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 is now 4.9% or $150 million behind 2017’s pace at $2.84 billion to $2.99 billion.
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The gulf between blockbusters and also-rans could hardly be starker these days. Since the release of Black Panther to a whopping $202 million on February 16, three movies that could have caught the general public’s imagination have arrived on the scene, and earned somewhere between a fifth and a seventh of that on opening weekend. Ready Player One is the most successful among them, with an opening of $41.2 million predicted by Warner Bros. as of this morning. That compares favorably to the openings of A Wrinkle in Time (which started out with $33.1 million), and Pacific Rim: Uprising ($28.1 million), and is, in fact, the best weekend in 2018 for a movie not called Black Panther, but it barely starts to chip away at considerable marketing costs, let alone a reported $150 million production budget.
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Ready Player One earned first place on Friday with $15.2 million, for a two-day total of $27.2 million. Continuing the comparison I’ve been doing with G.I. Joe: Retaliation, this news is mixed. Ready Player One had a much better preview night, which we can attribute to previews being relatively new when Retaliation came out. The two films’ 24-hour Thursday numbers were nearly the same, and now Ready Player One has slipped just behind Retaliation’s pace. Ready Player One does have very good reviews, but the two films both earned A-minuses from CinemaScore, so they should have similar legs. I’m still going to give the edge to Ready Player One at $41 million / $52 million, but it is close.
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Ready Player One pulled in $12.1 million on Thursday, including $3.75 million in previews. If we again compare this start to G.I. Joe: Retaliation, we see some good news, but also some troubling news. Relatiation only managed $2.6 million in previews, but $10.51 million on Thursday, so Ready Player One has shorter legs already. That said, Relatiation came out before previews were as big as they are now, so perhaps it is better just to judge the film’s Thursday numbers. If we use the full Thursday numbers, then Ready Player One is on pace for a $47 million / $59 million opening weekend. If we just use the 24-hour Thursday numbers, then Ready Player One will open with $41 million / $51 million over the weekend. Ready Player One does have betterreviews, but they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore, so perhaps having the same legs from now on is more likely than not. We will have a better idea once Friday’s numbers are out.
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March comes to a close with three wide releases. Of these, only Ready Player One is expected to be even a midlevel hit. In fact, it will likely earn more over its four-day weekend than the other two films earn in total. Acrimony should open in the mid to low teens, while God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness will barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby opened with just over $50 million. Maybe Ready Player One will make that much over four days. Even if it does, 2017’s impressive depth means there’s almost no chance 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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This is one of the worse times of year for the home market. Until we start getting the holiday blockbusters landing on DVD / Blu-ray, there’s not much to talk about. That’s not to say there are no good releases, as God’s Own Country, The Square, and Steven Universe: Season One are all easily worth picking up. There are just no big releases. For example, the Pick of the Week goes to Professor Marston & The Wonder Women on Blu-ray, which was sadly ignored by moviegoers when it first hit theaters.
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Boo! 2 is arguably slightly under-performing this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting a weekend total of $21.6 million as of Sunday morning, a figure that is down about $7 million from the debut of Boo! A Madea Halloween. But, in the bigger picture, it represents the continuation of a remarkable run for the Madea franchise that stretches now to eight films, all but one of which have opened with more than $20 million, and which have all topped $50 million, so far. Boo! 2 will be helped by Halloween, which should be just enough to take it over $50 million, and put the franchise close to $500 million at the box office. The only other comedy franchises with close to this longevity at the box office are The Pink Panther, and The Muppets, although neither of those have relied on a single actor (take a bow, Tyler Perry) for the entirety of their run.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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It’s a slow week at the top, as there are no new releases that were hits in theaters. That doesn’t mean we have no contenders for Pick of the Week, just that they are smaller films or ones that struggled in theaters. Queen of Katwe is the best of this list and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million.
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The theme for this week on the home market is “good, but not great”. There are a lot of releases, but almost none of them rise above merely good. This meant there were very few contenders for Pick of the Week and the only real choice was The Wailing. It earned perfect reviews, so even though the Blu-ray isn’t loaded with extras, it is still the best release of the week.
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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It is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, which means there are only a few days before Black Friday, which is one of the busiest shopping days of the season. At first glance, this might seem like a great day to release a DVD or Blu-ray; however, the massive sales will instead overshadow anything that comes out this week. This explains why there are so few interesting releases. The biggest release of the week is The Expendables 3 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack, but it might be so bad it killed the franchise. The best release is Mystery Science Theater 3000: The Turkey Day Collection (XXXI), which is the Pick of the Week. We also have a Puck of the Week for Rhymes for Young Ghouls on DVD, a Canadian film that deserves a wider audience.
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I think it is fair to say it is a mixed week on the home market. There are four wide releases coming out this week, but all but one struggled at the box office. Worse still, looking down the list of new releases and you quickly run into filler. Fortunately, there are a few films that are contenders for Pick of the Week, including Blue Ruin and Next Goal Wins. However, the winner is Ginger Snaps, which is coming out on a Special Edition Blu-ray.
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The weekend box office didn't shake out as expected with the new films failing to live up to the low end of predictions. Need for Speed didn't earn first place, in fact, it only managed third place. Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club barely managed fifth place and was the worst opening for Tyler Perry in his directing career. On the positive side, Mr. Peabody and Sherman held on better than expected allowing it to rise to first place. The overall box office sank compared to last weekend, down 21% to $114 million. This is still above last year's box office total by 6%. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in almost $2.00 billion, which is 11% ahead of 2013's pace.
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An over-abundance of action movies this weekend split the market for moviegoers looking for such entertainment, allowing the animated family adventure Mr. Peabody and Sherman to sneak in and win the weekend. Peabody will be down a decent 34% from last weekend at $21.2 million, according to Fox, and will hit $63 million by the end of the weekend. Its legs will take it past 300: Rise of an Empire, which will be down 58% to $19.1 million for the weekend, and $78.4 million after two. Both films will top new release Need for Speed. Disney's debutant will post around $17.8 million for the weekend, a number undoubtedly squeezed by competition with 300 and Non-Stop, which will post $10.6 million in its third weekend, for $68.8 million in total.
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Another week, another pair of wide releases. This time around, Need for Speed is competing with Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club. Neither film is expected to be a huge hit, but Need for Speed has a better chance at earning first place. 300: Rise of an Empire does have a shot at repeating on top, but it could also collapse due to mixed reviews and direct competition. Last year, the box office was led by Oz the Great and Powerful with $41.25 million during its second weekend of release. No single film is going to come close to that figure this weekend. On the other hand, 2014 has better depth than 2013 had, so it could still come out on top.
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2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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It's a good news / bad news weekend at the box office. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug earned first place with ease earning the fourth biggest December opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, it was a little weaker than expected opening on the low end of predictions. Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas also underperformed by a significant degree, which didn't help the overall box office. The overall box office rose 59% to $147 million, which seems like a huge amount, till you realize last weekend was the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year. If there wasn't a massive jump at the box office, it would have been fatal for the month. This was also higher than the same weekend last year, albeit by a smaller margin of 6%. Year-to-date, 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by less than 0.5% at $9.90 million to $9.85 million.
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There are four noteworthy releases this week, although a couple of them are opening in limited release and expanding wide over the next couple of weeks. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but not as big as An Unexpected Journey. Meanwhile Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas should be solid as counter-programming and better legs than most Tyler Perry. This weekend last year, An Unexpected Journey opened with $84.62 million. Most expect The Desolation of Smaug to miss that figure, perhaps by more than $10 million. However, the second best film last year was Rise of the Guardians, which only made $7.14 million. 2013 likely won't be as strong at the top, but it will certainly have better depth.
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We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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The week of July 14th, 2013 was a bit strange on the home market, as the Blu-ray sales chart and the DVD sales chart didn't line up very well. Granted, in both cases, new releases dominated, but unlike on DVD, The Host led the way on Blu-ray. It sold 103,000 units and generated $2.38 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 42%, which isn't bad for a film with a decidedly weak box run.
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It is a very busy week on the home market with four wide releases, five if you count Spring Breakers, which expanded semi-wide during its second weekend of release. None of these films were big hits at the box office. In fact, the five of them combined made $122 million. Additionally, only one of them earned good reviews. Fortunately, not only did Spring Breakers earn good reviews, its DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are loaded, enough to be a contender for Pick of the Week. The other main contender is The Legend of Korra - Book One: Air. Unfortunately, I'm still waiting for the screener for both of those releases, and I hate handing out the Pick of the Week when the screener is on its way. Because of that, I'm going with a late review, Wilfred: Season Two on DVD or Blu-ray.
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To no-one's great surprise, Iron Man 3 will top the box office chart again this weekend, with a very creditable projected $72.4 million, the 4th-biggest second weekend of all time. The more notable number this weekend, however, is the $51 million projected opening for The Great Gatsby. That's Baz Luhrman's best weekend by a huge margin -- in fact, only Moulin Rouge earned more than that in total domestically (and only by a small margin, with $57 million). It's also Leonardo DiCaprio's second-best weekend, behind Inception. In short, it's a great weekend for a movie that looked like a tough sell.
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Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either.
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As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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Evil Dead led the way at the box office matching predictions (nearly) perfectly. It fell just a little short of the predicted $26 million, and it was the only film in the top five to miss expectations. This helped the overall box office hold up better than expected. Granted, it did fall 8.7% from last weekend to $134 million, but that was 8.8% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 is still taking a beating down 11% at $2.47 billion to $2.79 million, but this win is still helpful. If 2013 can string together a few more wins, then the start of summer and The Avengers won't sting quite as bad.
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There are no truly absolutely new releases this weekend. That's not to say there's nothing sort of new to check out. The Evil Dead remake is coming out and its buzz is growing louder than I was expecting. It could be a surprisingly strong release. Also, Jurassic Park3D re-release is coming out, and while its buzz is much lower, it should still earn as much as it cost to convert into 3D during its opening weekend, or at least come close. This weekend last year, American Reunion debuted with disappointing numbers earning second place while Titanic's 3D re-release did relatively well placing third. I think the combined opening weekend of the two new releases this year will top those from last year. Unfortunately, last year The Hunger Games led the way and that will be enough to keep 2013 behind 2012 in the year-over-year comparison for yet another weekend.
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While Easter Monday is a holiday up here in Canada, it's not in the United States and the weekend numbers have arrived. The numbers are good, or close enough to being good that I'm choosing to focus on the positive. G.I. Joe: Retaliation won the race for the top with an opening weekend that was a little better than expected. Meanwhile, Temptation also opened on the high end of expectations. On the other hand, The Host failed to live up to lowered expectations. Overall, the box office rose 6.1% from last week. Granted, it did fall compared to the same weekend last year, but it fell by less than 1% (0.99%) and compared to the year-to-date decline, that's positively glowing. I'm calling it a victory. That's right, 2013 has been so bad so far that I'm willing to call a 1% decline a victory. 2013 is still well behind 2012's pace at $2.27 billion to $2.59 billion, which is a deficit of 12% or nearly $330 million.
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It's Easter long weekend and three films will be battling for box office domination. G.I. Joe: Retaliation is the only one that really has a shot at success. The Host is earning some of the worst reviews for a wide release for the entire year, which is not surprising given the source material. Meanwhile, Temptation is not being screened for critics. It is likely The Croods will be pushed into second place, but should remain strong thanks to the holiday. This weekend last year was led by The Hunger Games with $58 million. There's almost no chance any new release will match that. In fact, there's a chance no film will top last year's second place film, Wrath of the Titans. 2013 is going to get slapped around again.
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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It's not a bad week as far as first run releases go with three of them appearing high on the chart. This includes Flight, which has earned some major nominations during Awards Season. However, it is a shallow week, as there are also Direct-to-DVD kids releases and even a workout DVD in the top ten, according to Amazon.com. Leading the way is Peter Pan on Blu-ray Combo Pack or Blu-ray Combo Pack with Storybook App. This is not only the best-selling Blu-ray of the week, but it is also the best and is the Pick of the Week.
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Tyler Perry has been a money making machine, but while he, or more accurately, Madea, has a dedicated following, he hasn't been able to generate a lot of crossover appeal. Alex Cross was his first attempt to truly get away from his iconic character. It didn't go so well. The film opened in fifth place and quickly disappeared from there. Is is as bad as its box office numbers would indicate? Or does Tyler Perry just need more time to distance himself from Madea before moviegoers who don't like that character are willing to accept him in a role like this?
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As everyone was expecting, Paranormal Activity 4 led the way on the box office chart this past weekend; however, it did so with much weaker than expected numbers. The other new release, Alex Cross, also missed expectations. On the other hand, the holdovers held on a lot better than expected. The overall box office was still weaker than last weekend, but only by 0.9%. We can call that a tie. Compared to last year, the overall box office rose by 6%. That's not a huge amount, but considering this weekend last year saw Paranormal Activity 3 break the record for biggest October opening, a victory by any margin is worth celebrating. Year-to-date, 2012 is maintaining its lead over 2011. 2012 currently has a 3.9% advantage over 2011's pace at $8.59 billion to $8.26 billion. Since 2011 didn't have a strong winter run, 2012 should be able to maintain, if not expand, its lead.
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After five years of Saw, and a hand-over period of a couple of years, the Paranormal Activity franchise has come to dominate the brief Halloween movie season. Showing that horror moviegoers may be more tradition-bound than any other category of film fans, Paranormal Activity 4 is set for a healthy opening this weekend, with Paramount projecting at total of $30.4 million by the end of the weekend. That's down quite a bit from the $50 million-plus debut of Paranormal Activity 3 last year, and the franchise does look like it is losing some momentum. With production budgets around $5 million, and relatively modest marketing costs, however, the studio will earn a healthy profit from this release and has, predictably, announced Paranormal Activity 5 will go into production early next year for release in October.
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It's the weekend before Halloween, so that must mean Paranormal Activity. The fourth installment in the franchise should dominate the box office, but the challenge is for Paranormal Activity 4 to top Paranormal Activity 3. The only other wide release of the week is Alex Cross, Tyler Perry's attempt to build a mainstream acting career. There's not a lot of buzz for that film. Last yearParanormal Activity 3 broke the record for biggest October opening. There's a slim chance that will happen this year as well, but probably not. On the other hand, the other three releases made roughly $14 million combined, so while we are not as strong at the top, there's better depth in 2012.
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There are only two wide releases coming out next week and nearly everyone thinks Paranormal Activity 4 will top Alex Cross. (To be fair, Tyler Perry has surprised analysts a lot of times in the past and this film might also do much better than expected.) In fact, there are some who think Paranormal Activity 4 could break the record for biggest October opening. As such, it is the clear choice target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Paranormal Activity 4.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of both Dinosaur Town: Dinosaurs A to Z on DVD and Dora the Explorer: Dora's Royal Rescue on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of both Dinosaur Town: Dinosaurs A to Z on DVD and Dora the Explorer: Dora's Royal Rescue on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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