February 24th, 2019
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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February 24th, 2019
It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning.
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January 23rd, 2019
The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
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September 25th, 2018
This week, Solo: A Star Wars Story hits the home market and while the film missed expectations at the box office, it is still a big enough hit to scare away most of the competition. There are a number of releases on this week’s list that are worth picking up, like Pin Cushion, Welcome to the Dollhouse, as well as Solo itself. As for contenders for Pick of the Week, it is Fraggle Rock: The Complete Series on Blu-ray and nothing else.
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September 25th, 2018
Solo was the third Star Wars film to come out in approximately 18 months. It also had serious behind-the-scenes issues that resulted in $100 millions worth of reshoots, according to some reports. It missed expectations, both at the box office and with critics. Is it the weakest installment in the Disney era? If so, is it still worth checking out?
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June 26th, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom beat expectations with $148.02 million over the weekend, but it wasn’t the only monster hit in theaters. Incredibles 2 added $80.35 million during its second weekend of release, which helped the overall box office become the biggest June weekend of all time. The overall box office rose just 2.3%, but that was enough to break the record with $277 million. This is also 98% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018 has had a string of hits that have dominated their 2017 counterparts, even if they missed expectations, so it is no surprise that 2018 has a lead over 2017 in the year-over-year comparison. However, that lead is surprisingly larger. It has grown to 9.1% or $490 million at $5.85 billion to $5.36 billion. No year has started as fast as 2018 has, and even its estimated ticket sales are the best in the 2010s.
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June 24th, 2018
Sequels usually start faster but fall quicker, when compared to their predecessor. However, no one expected Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom to follow suit. In fact, many thought it would collapse. That wasn’t the case, as Fallen Kingdom opened with $150 million over the weekend. Granted, this is nearly 30% lower than Jurassic World’s opening weekend, but it could have been much worse. On the downside, its reviews are almost exactly 50% positive, which suggests weak legs. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences did like the film more than critics did, so we have mixed signals about what the movie will do going forward. Internationally, the film added $106.7 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $561.5 million. This includes a $12.3 million debut in Mexico.
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June 21st, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the only wide release of the week and it was expected to dominate the box office. That was until Incredibles 2 broke records last weekend. Furthermore, Fallen Kingdom’s reviews have fallen below the overall positive level. Now there might be a race at the box office, at least on the daily charts. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Transformers: The Last Knight missed expectations with just $45 million over the weekend and $70 million in five days. Fallen Kingdom had better earn $45 million on Friday alone, or it is in serious trouble.
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June 18th, 2018
Incredibles 2 became the first potential monster hit since Infinity War to beat tracking numbers, opening with a mind-numbing $182.69 million. It is hard to describe how amazing this opening is. It has rewritten the record book when it comes to animated films and it gives Disney the top three openings of 2018 and four of the top five. This is twice as much as the rest of the box office earned over the entire weekend. There were other new releases this week, with Tag doing fine. Its $14.95 million opening is nothing special, but it should break even sometime on the home market. SuperFly, on the other hand, was a disappointment. The overall box office grew by 126% from last weekend, with Incredibles 2 earning about 50% more than the entire box office pulled in last weekend. The film was just shy of the same weekend last year, while the overall box office rose by 43%. Year-to-date, 2018 continues to have a lead over 2017, and it has grown to a commanding lead of 6.6% or $340 million at $5.44 billion to $5.10 billion. Granted, we are barely halfway through the year, but 2018 is in a great position to break the all-time yearly box office record.
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June 17th, 2018
Incredibles 2 was widely expected to dominate the box office over the weekend, but after the two previous potential monster hits missed high expectations, I thought it was wise to be a little more pessimistic. I was wrong. Incredibles 2 opened with an estimated $180 million. This is not only the best opening for a Pixar film, and an animated film in general, it is the 8th biggest opening weekend of all time. (It could slip a little in tomorrow’s final numbers, putting it in 9th place behind Captain America: Civil War.) The film is already the 50th biggest animated hit of all time and unless its legs are shorter than expected, it will quickly race to the top of that chart. Speaking of legs, Incredibles 2 has the best reviews in the top ten and earned a stunning A plus from CinemaScore. To be frank, perhaps stunning isn’t the right word. Perhaps “expected” is a better term, as Pixar has earned 7 A plus ratings out of its 20 films and has never once slipped below an A minus. Internationally, the film opened in second place with $51.5 million in 25 markets and earned a Pixar-best opening in Mexico ($12.3 million) and Argentina ($3.0 million). In fact, it was outstanding in all of Latin America. It is also the fasting opening Pixar film in Australia with $7.7 million, while it managed the studio’s second biggest opening in Russia with $5.4 million. Granted, the film is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically; however, it is still on pace for $1 billion worldwide, so there’s no way the studio isn’t celebrating this opening.
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June 16th, 2018
Incredibles 2 opened with $71.55 million on Friday. To put this in perspective, it is already the biggest digital animation of 2018 and even if it doesn’t sell a single ticket on Saturday and Sunday, this would still be the fifth biggest opening weekend for a Pixar film and the 13th biggest opening for an animated film. Assuming its 93% positive reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore help its legs, it could top Solo: A Star Wars Story’s running tally by the end of the weekend. On the other hand, an opening weekend of $180 million seems like a solid goal after an opening day like this and that will put it on pace for over $500 million domestically.
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June 14th, 2018
Incredibles 2 leads a group of three wide releases coming out in theaters this week. It should open with more than the rest of the box office combined. Tag is a film that many will find a little unbelievable, even though it is based on real-life events. Its reviews suggest a moderate opening, but nothing too special. The buzz surrounding SuperFly is really quiet, but it is being aimed at its target audience in a much more focused ad campaign, which makes judging said campaign’s effectiveness more difficult. Ocean’s 8 should have no trouble earning second place, while it could avoid falling 50%. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Cars 3 opened with $53.69 million, while Wonder Woman added $41.27 million over the same weekend. I would be shocked if Incredibles 2 doesn’t open with more than those two films earned combined. 2018 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease.
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June 12th, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened in first place on the international chart with $150.9 million in 48 markets. The film’s biggest market was South Korea, where it set the opening day record with $9.7 million, but its overall weekend was not quite as impressive, as it earned $15.17 million for a total opening of $26.57 million. That three-day total is better than Jurassic World, but its a drop from the opening day to its weekend total. This could be a sign of weak word-of-mouth and that’s troubling as its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level. The film also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($19.20 million in 662 theaters) and in France ($10.91 million in 700), but this is lower than the predecessor managed in both those markets. Overall, the film will have little trouble earning $1 billion worldwide, but it very likely won’t live up to Jurassic World.
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June 12th, 2018
The weekend was very kind to Ocean’s 8, as it opened with $41.61 million. This is not only the top result this weekend, it is the best opening weekend in the franchise. Hereditary also opened on the high end of expectations, leaving just Hotel Artemis as the only disappointment of the weekend. Overall, the box office rose 13% from last weekend to $120 million. More importantly, this was 17% lower than the same weekend last year. That said, it could have been worse and 2018 still has a 5.1% / $250 million lead over 2017 at $5.11 billion to $4.86 billion.
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June 10th, 2018
Ocean’s 8 matched expectations with $41.5 million over the weekend. If it can maintain this figure, then it will open in the $10,000 club, while even if its final numbers slips a little, it still would be on pace for $100 million domestically. Its reviews have settled to 67% positive, and it managed an acceptable B plus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be average. Fortunately, with a start like this, it only needs average legs to break even early in its home market run.
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June 9th, 2018
Two of the three new releases opened well on Friday. Ocean’s 8 open with $15.8 million, putting it on pace for an opening weekend of $42 million. This is the best opening in the franchise. It is also the cheapest installment in the franchise with a $70 million production budget, so it won’t need amazing legs to break even during its initial push into the home market. Its reviews are 69% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. Neither of those results are particularly good, but they are no reason to panic either. Unfortunately, it won’t have the same legs as its predecessors, as the market has changed in the past decade. Furthermore, films with predominately female casts don’t do as well internationally, so the film will rely a little more on its domestic numbers to break even. That said, Warner Bros. should be happy with this result.
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June 7th, 2018
Ocean’s 8 leads a trio of new releases this week and it might be the only one to reach the top five. It is certainly the only one competing for first place. Hereditary is earning amazing reviews, but it is an art house horror movie and those tend to struggle at the box office. Finally there’s Hotel Artemis, which is earning the quietest buzz of the three releases. Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should remain strong helping the overall box office. However, while this year’s new releases are better than last year’s new releases, with Wonder Woman’s sophomore stint, 2018 is going to suffer another loss. Next week will be better.
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June 5th, 2018
Deadpool 2 returned to first place with $41.6 million in 79 markets for totals of $344.00 million internationally and $598.51 million worldwide. It opened in first place in Japan with $5.5 million, which is close to 30% better than the original managed in its opening there.
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June 4th, 2018
The overall weekend went about as well as expected. Unfortunately, that’s not good news. Solo: A Star Wars Story fell about as much as the average sophomore blockbuster film falls during a post-holiday weekend, earning first place with $29.40 million, while Deadpool 2 was the only other film to earn more than $20 million, landing in second with $23.18 million. The biggest new release of the week was Adrift with $11.60 million. The overall box office fell 42% from last weekend to just $106 million. To put this into perspective, this weekend last year, Wonder Woman opened with $103 million. That one movie made almost as much as the entire box office made this year. The year-over-year decline was 43%. Fortunately, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by a sizable amount at 6.8% or $310 million at $4.94 billion to $4.63 billion and in a couple of weeks, 2018 should start winning again in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 3rd, 2018
We predicted Solo: A Star Wars Story would earn about $30 million during its second weekend of release and it earned $29.3 million over the weekend. I’m calling that a victory. It did fall 65%, but this is a standard decline for a tentpole release after a holiday weekend. The film has $148.89 million after 10 days of release and is on pace to top $200 million domestically. Internationally it has $115.3 million, including $30.3 million this past weekend. It doesn’t open in Japan until the end of June, but once it does, it should reach $400 million worldwide. Had the film not needed extensive reshoots, this would have been enough to break even, eventually.
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June 2nd, 2018
As expected, Solo: A Star Wars Story earned top spot on Friday with $8.15 million. We predicted it would earn about $30 million and it looks like that’s the case, although it’s on track for the lower end of that range, with a $29 million sophomore stint. If it recovers next weekend, then it will remain on pace for $200 million domestically. However, getting to that milestone is more about saving face than breaking even at this point. Even if the film’s reviews help it become a hit on the home market, it’s not going to break even any time soon. Fortunately, The Last Jedi made enough profits that Disney will still be happy with the overall results of the franchise. Plus there’s always merchandising, something the Star Wars films helped perfect.
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May 31st, 2018
While there are three wide releases coming out this week, Solo: A Star Wars Story should have no trouble remaining in top spot. In fact, Adrift is the only wide release that has a better than 50/50 shot at $10 million over the weekend. Action Point may or may not reach the top five. Meanwhile, there are some who think Upgrade will miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Wonder Woman opened with more than $100 million. The top ten won’t get there this year. 2018 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year competition.
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May 30th, 2018
2001: A Space Odyssey remained in first place on the theater average chart with $24,810 in four theaters. The number one film, Solo: A Star Wars Movie, was next with an average of $19,270. The Gospel According to Andre earned an average of $11,951 in four theaters. First Reformed remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,064 in 29 theaters during its second weekend of release.
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May 30th, 2018
Solo: A Star Wars Story earned first place on the international chart with $65.0 million in 54 markets; however, this is about half what the film needed to make to be a undisputed financial success. The film only cracked $10 million in one market, the U.K. where it made $10.3 million. However, China was close behind with $9.71 million over the weekend and $9.84 million including previews.
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May 30th, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is off its peak and its been a while since it was breaking records regularly. (Half of the top ten three-day and four-day records are a decade old or older.) That didn’t change this year, as Solo: A Star Wars Story missed expectations with $84.42 million / $103.02 million during its opening weekend. You can’t even claim it missed expectations because Deadpool 2 stole its thunder, as that film also fell faster than anticipated. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend down to $182 million. This is still 29% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. If you include Monday, the weekend pulled in $226 million, which is about 27% higher than last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 8.3% / $370 million lead over 2017 at $4.79 billion to $4.42 billion. That lead will shrink in the next couple of weeks, but overall, 2018 is looking really healthy.
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May 27th, 2018
Solo: A Star Wars Story opened with an estimated $83 million / $101 million over the three-day / four-day weekend. It had the best Memorial Day long weekend since 2014, when X-Men: Days of Future Past opened with $111 million over four days. In fact, this result is the fourth best Memorial Day long weekend opening in the past decade. That said, it was much lower than expected and some are calling it a box office failure. That’s complicated. The film was originally going to cost $150 million to make, making it the cheapest installment in the new Star Wars franchise. However, they reportedly had to reshoot 70% of the movie, which lifted the price to $250 million. The box office needed to break even during the film’s initial push into the home market rose from about $500 million to $650 million. And with an initial international debut of $65.0 million in 54 markets, this film is just not going to get there. The unending talk of behind-the-scenes trouble seems to have hurt the film’s box office chances and even its good reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore won’t be enough to turn things around. That said, it is far from a complete disaster and the franchise will continue, although it might be wise for Disney to not release so many installments in the franchise so quickly. Three in 18 months is a bit too much. This isn’t the MCU.
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May 26th, 2018
Historically, Memorial Day long weekend has been a major weekend at the box office; however, the past few years the weekend has struggled somewhat. If you look at the three-day and four-day records, more than half of the top ten happened a decade ago or earlier. So it is not a shock that Solo: A Star Wars Story didn’t break records on Friday by earning $35.63 million. This is slightly better than X-Men: Days of Future Past, meaning Solo has the best opening Friday for Memorial Day weekend in five years. Depending on its legs, it could earn a spot in the top five over the full weekend. Its reviews have settled on a 71% positive, which is good, but not great, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore. The film should earn $90 million / $110 million over the weekend, which is still an okay start.
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May 25th, 2018
Solo: A Star Wars Story has already broken a record earning $14.1 million during its previews, which is nearly $1 million ahead of the previous record for Memorial Day long weekend. That record was $13.2 million held by At World’s End, which also holds the records for three-day and four-day Memorial Day weekends. Solo also earned better reviews, but At World’s End opened over a decade ago, so its previews are not a good comparison. Last year, Dead Men Tell No Tales started with $5.5 million, while the year before that, Apocalypse opened with $8.2 million. Even if we use the lower multiplier, this still puts Solo on pace for $113 million / $137 million. That’s close to the records for Memorial Day, which seems a bit bullish. We will have a better idea once Friday’s estimates are in.
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May 24th, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is usually a great weekend to open a big release. However, this year, Solo: A Star Wars Story is the wide release of the weekend. It will obviously open in first place, but how will it compare to the recent releases in the Star Wars franchise? Deadpool 2 will have no trouble earning second place and could by the end of the weekend be in the black. (It depends heavily on how much it cost to advertise, but I think its combined budget is around $200 million.) The only other film expected to make a dent at the box office is Avengers: Infinity War, which has already earned $600 million domestically. This weekend last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opened in first place with $62.98 million / $78.48 million. There are some who think Solo will double that. I’m not that bullish, but I do think Solo will lead 2018 to an easy win in the year-over-year competition.
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May 1st, 2018
April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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April 11th, 2018
Sci-fi adventure starring Alden Ehrenreich, Donald Glover, and Emilia Clarke, opens May 25 ... Full Movie Details.
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February 5th, 2018
Sci-fi adventure starring Alden Ehrenreich, Donald Glover, and Emilia Clarke, opens May 25 ... Full Movie Details.
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