October 30th, 2018
It’s another slow week on the home market, with not a lot of big releases and not a lot of Pick of the Week contenders. There were several that came close, including 2001: A Space Odyssey, Never Goin’ Back, The Princess Bride, etc. In the end, Mandy on Blu-ray was the only true contender for that title.
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September 26th, 2018
The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 7th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout remained on top of the weekend box office chart thanks in part to a stronger than expected hold and in part to weaker than expected competition. Christopher Robin was the only new release to make any real noise opening in second place with $24.59 million, while The Spy Who Dumped Me opened with less than half of that. Overall, the box office earned $139 million, 11% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this was 14% higher than this weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2017 to just under $600 million or 8.7% at $7.46 billion to $6.86 billion.
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July 30th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout was easily the biggest hit of the weekend earning more than the rest of the top five combined. Its opening weekend of $61.24 million was the best in the franchise, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the overall box office from dropping 9.3% from last weekend earning $156 million. This is 8.0% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the more important result. 2018 is now ahead of 2017 by a margin of 8.5% or $570 million at $7.23 billion to $6.66 billion.
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July 29th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout dominated the weekend box office chart with $61.5 million over the weekend. This is the best opening in the franchise, unless you take inflation into account. Assuming the film can have the same legs as Rogue Nation, it will be able to top $200 million domestically. The film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore, and the nearly total lack of quality competition in August, make that seem likely; however, I think we should wait a week before predicting a final box office tally. Internationally, the film made $92 million in 36 markets, which is close to 20% higher than Rogue Nation’s debuts in those markets, which should be enough to keep Paramount happy. Although given the studio’s struggles in the past few years, if the film was just marginally profitable, it would have been reason for Paramount to celebrate.
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July 28th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout earned $23.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for an opening weekend of $58 million, according to Paramount. This is the fastest start in the franchise; although given the age of the franchise and the ticket price inflation, that’s much less impressive. The film’s reviews are among the best we’ve seen from a wide release this year, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so its legs should be long. That said, this is weaker than we predicted. I really thought the reviews would translate into more ticket sales.
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July 27th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout had the best previews in the franchise with $6 million; although that’s a bit of a backhanded compliment, as only Rogue Nation is new enough to be part of the preview era of Hollywood releases. That film pulled in $4 million during its previews; however, it also opened three years ago when previews were not as lucrative, so it is not a good comparison. On the other hand, The Equalizer 2 is a solid comparison as both are action sequels. If the two films have the same legs, then Fallout will open with nearly $70 million. Its reviews strongly suggest it will have better legs, but the long-running franchise suggests slighly longer legs. Overally, I’m still happy with our $67 million prediction and I expect the film to earn a little more than that, but be close enough to call it a victory.
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July 26th, 2018
The last weekend of the month has two wide releases, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Mission: Impossible—Fallout is the sixth film in the franchise. It wasn’t that long ago where a sixth installment in a franchise would be impressive. Teen Titans Go! To the Movie is the first big screen appearance for most of these characters. There should also be three, maybe four other films with $10 million or more during the weekend. 2018 won’t need that depth to win in the year-over-year comparison, as this weekend last year was pretty weak, so the month should end on a winning note.
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July 23rd, 2018
The Equalizer 2 was the surprise winner at the weekend box office chart with $36.01 million over the weekend, which put it just ahead of the $34.95 million earned by Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! The overall box office topped expectations with $171 million, up 2.7% from last week. This is 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year, but this is better than expected. Also, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by a sizable margin of $560 million / 8.8% at $6.98 billion to $6.42 billion. Again, if 2018 just maintains the raw dollar margin for the rest of the year, it will be a reason to celebrate.
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July 22nd, 2018
In a shocking turn of events, The Equalizer 2 overtook Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! over the weekend with $35.83 million. This is better than predicted and is better than the original managed. Its reviews are not great, but it earned an A from CinemaScore and it is aimed at a more mature target audience, so it should have better than average legs. We will have a better picture this time next week. Internationally, the film managed $3.3 million on 704 screens in 11 markets, including $2.2 million in Australia. The film first didn’t do great internationally, so while this is a 30% improvement, it is still nothing special.
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July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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June 26th, 2018
Animated comedy opens July 27 ... Full Movie Details.
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