June 7th, 2012
New releases took the top four spots in the Blu-ray sales chart. Red Tails took first place with 446,000 units / $10.25 million for a 48% opening week Blu-ray share. The film was expensive to make and it didn't perform well enough in theaters, but its home market numbers are better.
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June 5th, 2012
After a major change on the back end of site, we have two weeks of home market numbers to get to, starting with the week ending on May 20th. New releases dominated the chart taking the top three spots and four of the top six. The Grey earned first place with 360,000 units / $6.12 million. This is a fine start given its theatrical run, but not an exceptional one.
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May 22nd, 2012
It's a strange week on the home market. There are not a lot of films on this week's list, but there are more first run releases than normal, while we are also moving into the summer TV schedule, so a lot of those shows are getting home market releases this week, in preparation for their upcoming seasons. The list is top-heavy, not very deep, and lacks contenders for for Pick of the Week. The Secret World of Arrietty is the best release and the Blu-ray looks amazing, but there are not a lot of extras to be found. Likewise, Sherlock: Season Two is a great show, but the DVD and Blu-ray don't have a lot of extras, plus the price-per-minute is rather high for a TV on DVD release. I have high hopes for The Woman in Black, but the screener is late. In the end I'm going with The Secret World of Arrietty, but the other two are Honorable Mentions.
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February 22nd, 2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island remained on top of the international chart with $27.5 million on 8,249 screens in 43 markets for a total of $130.0 million internationally. By comparison, its predecessor made $140 million in total. This week, The Mysterious Island opened in second place in France with $2.71 million on 436 screens, while it managed first place in Spain with $2.10 million on 468. The film is almost at $200 million worldwide, and with several major markets left to go, it should have no trouble getting to $250 million and maybe even $300 million.
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February 13th, 2012
Another weekend, another win. For the sixth weekend in a row, 2012 has topped 2011 in the year-over-year, and like much of the year, it wasn't even close. The overall box office was up 66% from last weekend reaching $192 million. It was also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. All four wide releases beat expectations, sometimes by wide margins. Also, all earned more than $20 million, which is the first time that's happened on a non-holiday weekend. And two of them earned $40 million or more. Year-to-date, 2012 now has a 19% lead on 2011 at $1.19 billion to $1.00 billion. There is reason to be cautious however, as a lot of this growth is due to 2011 getting off to a disastrous start. It is still too soon to declare victory, but it is reason to at least be somewhat optimistic.
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February 9th, 2012
2012 has beaten 2011 every single weekend so far and we could see that streak survive at least one more weekend thanks to three wide releases: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Safe House, and The Vow, plus a re-release, Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace. That's a crowded slate and normally I would assume one or more of the films would be squeezed out at the box office, but now I'm not so sure, as even the weakest amongst them is tracking for close to $20 million. By comparison, this weekend last year three films earned more than $25 million and only one new release failed to connect with audiences. So it could be a tough race, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
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February 8th, 2012
The winners of our Black Friday contest were determined and they are...
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February 7th, 2012
It was Super Bowl weekend, which apparently some people care about. (Not me. Go B.C. Lions!) The crossover audience between the Super Bowl and most movies is quite high, so it is no real shock that the box office was down compared to last weekend. However, it was only down 8% to $116 million. This was 33% higher than the same weekend last year. Both Chronicle and The Woman in Black topped expectations by significant degrees, while the weakest movie the top five missed weekend predictions by less than $1 million. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011's pace by 12% at $964 million to $850 million. Before we get too excited, by this weekend in 2010, the box office had already pulled in $1.21 billion.
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February 5th, 2012
The industry's healthy start to 2012 will continue this weekend thanks to two more good opening weekends. Chronicle is currently favorite to win the weekend, with Fox predicting a $22 million opening. CBS Films is pegging The Woman in Black at $21 million (a record for the fledgling studio). Both figures are predicated on historical models for SuperBowl Sunday, which can be a difficult day to predict, so the final order between the two could yet switch, although Chronicle is heavily favored to win at this point. Overall box office will be up about 35% from last year, although that reflects the very weak start to 2011. This weekend looks as though it will be about average for a SuperBowl weekend overall.
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February 2nd, 2012
There are two important dates in February: Valentine's Day and Presidents Day. This weekend deals with neither of those, so it is probably going to be a little soft at the box office. On the other hand, all three films opening this weekend, Big Miracle, Chronicle, and The Woman in Black, have overall positive reviews and are averaging around 75% positive (That might change by the end of the evening as more reviews come in.) By comparison, this weekend last year saw the release of The Roommate and Sanctum, both of which earned terrible reviews and neither of which earned a lot at the box office. Those two films combined earned just under $25 million over the weekend, while there's a slim, slim chance The Woman in Black will make that much by itself. Even on the low end, the top two new releases should match that, while this year appears to have the advantage with depth as well. I'm almost feeling optimistic. ... I may have just cursed the box office.
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February 1st, 2012
2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start.
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January 26th, 2012
Next Friday sees the release is The Woman in Black, Daniel Radcliffe's first post-Potter film. It is also probably going to be the biggest hit of the weekend, and it is definitely the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Woman in Black.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Meet the Browns: Season Four on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Season Nine on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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