October 3rd, 2017
It is not a great week for home market releases. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is the biggest release of the week, but it is far from the best. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are all horror themed. Cult of Chucky is surprisingly good, especially for a franchise that’s lasted seven installments. Don't Torture A Duckling is a giallo film, and an important one in its director’s career. Up next is iZombie: Season Three, which is amazing, but it is always on the edge of being canceled. Finally, there's Vampyr: Criterion Collection Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Don't Torture A Duckling: Special Edition as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Goon: Last of the Enforcers Blu-ray Combo Pack earned Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release.
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September 20th, 2017
I think it is a really good week on the home market. The biggest release of the week is Wonder Woman, which is also one of the best wide releases of the year. The extras are strong and the Blu-ray Combo Pack / 3D Combo Pack are Pick of the Week contenders. It isn’t the winner, as The Big Sick is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year and the DVD / Blu-ray Combo Pack is loaded with extras.
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July 2nd, 2017
With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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June 25th, 2017
A tepid $45.3 million Friday-to-Sunday domestic weekend for Transformers: The Last Knight is pretty much unmitigated bad news for Paramount Pictures. The studio is in desperate need of a hit, and the Transformers franchise is by far their biggest property. Even including the film’s grosses from Wednesday and Thursday, its $69 million debut is barely in the top ten for the year so far, and poor reviews and a B+ CinemaScore mean that it won’t have significant legs, even with a bit of help from the upcoming July 4 weekend. So all eyes are going to be on its overseas performance.
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June 17th, 2017
As anticipated, Cars 3 is cruising to the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Disney predicting a weekend of $53.547 million, as of Sunday morning. While that’s a very respectable figure in anyone’s book (and continues Disney’s domination at the box office this year), it’s down markedly from Cars 2’s $66.1 million opening weekend in 2011, and points towards a final domestic box office around $150 million. If that proves to be the case, it’ll be the second-worst performer ever for Pixar, beating only The Good Dinosaur. Talk of a decline at Pixar is over-blown, in my opinion, but this is still a so-so result by their high standards.
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June 14th, 2017
The Mummy debuted in first place on the international chart with $140.76 million on 19,078 screens in 63 markets. The film’s biggest market was China, no surprise there. It earned $52.4 million on 7,364 screens, which is better than Wonder Woman’s opening there last weekend. The film did even better in South Korea, relatively speaking, with an opening weekend of $8.61 million on 1,254 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.80 million. This includes a record for opening day in that market of $6.6 million, while the total opening was the best for Universal. On the downside, the film struggled in the U.K. earning second place with $4.2 million in 563 theaters. That’s weaker than its performance here, relative to the size of the two markets. Furthermore, the film only has two major markets left to open in, France and Japan, while its reviews will likely really hurt its legs. It will earn enough worldwide to pay for its production budget, assuming the $125 million reports are accurate.
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June 13th, 2017
The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally.
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June 11th, 2017
There are precious few crumbs of comfort to be found from Universal’s launch of The Mummy this weekend. The studio is projecting a $32.2 million opening this weekend from 4,035 theaters. That will be a fairly distant second to Wonder Woman, which is expected to earn about $57.1 million. Even the bright news—that this is Tom Cruise’s biggest global opening weekend—comes with an asterisk.
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June 8th, 2017
Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 7th, 2017
Wonder Woman opened in first place on the international chart with $122.5 million in 55 markets for a global opening weekend of $225.8 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it opened in first place with $38.96 million. This is about $10 million less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with recently, but then again, that was a sequel, so it is not an entirely fair comparison. Should Wonder Woman have better legs there, then it could still hit $100 million in that market. Other big markets for the movie include South Korea, where it earned $6.40 million on 1,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.41 million. This is better than Suicide Squad managed in that market, but behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Brazil and Mexico were close behind with $8.3 million and $8.22 million respectively. This is better than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, but not as good as BvS or Suicide Squad. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in the U.K earning $8.00 million in 599 screens, which was still enough for first place. It only managed second place in Russia with $3.99 million on 1,194 screens. Overall, the studio should be happy with these results and I bet there’s a sequel already in early stages of development.
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June 6th, 2017
The overall box office bounced back after a weak Memorial Day thanks to two critically acclaimed movies. Wonder Woman led the way with $103.25 million, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was way back with $23.85 million. Overall, the weekend box office pulled in $185 million, which is 31% more than last weekend. It is also 37% more than the same weekend last year. This helped 2017’s lead over 2016 grow by nearly a full percentage point to 3.5% at $4.69 billion to $4.52 billion.
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June 2nd, 2017
It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year.
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May 31st, 2017
Memorial Day long weekend wasn’t as potent as expected as both new releases struggled. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales led the way with $78.47 million over four days. This marks the third year in a row where no film released on Memorial Day long weekend earned at least $100 million over four days. I’ve heard some talk that this means it is losing its importance as a long weekend. However, I think the actual answer is much simpler, as it is also the third weekend in a row where no wide releases have earned overall positive reviews. I don’t think the box office power of Memorial Day has dropped since X-Men: Days of Future Past came out. I just think the quality of films has dropped since then. Speaking of lack of quality, Baywatch was DOA earning just $27.71 million over five days and unlike Dead Men Tell No Tales, it likely won’t do significantly better internationally. Despite both new releases struggling, the holiday helped the overall box office grow 14% from last weekend to $141 million. Unfortunately, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 still maintains its lead over 2016, but that lead as slipped to 2.6% or $110 million at $4.46 billion to $4.35 billion.
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May 28th, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is dominating proceedings at the box office this weekend, with Disney projecting an opening of $62.2 million for three days, and $76.6 million over the complete Memorial Day holiday weekend. As I’ve said a few times this year, any other studio would kill for numbers like those, but this marks the third straight decline in the franchise’s fortunes. Dead Man’s Chest had the best opening for any Pirates film, with $135.6 million in 2006; At World’s End did $114.7 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2007; and then On Stranger Tides delivered a $90.2-million debut, also over Memorial Day weekend in 2011. With this kind of start, Dead Men will struggle to deliver $200 million domestically, although its international performance will help make up the numbers.
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May 27th, 2017
As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned first place at the Friday box office. Unfortunately, it missed the low end of expectations with $23.40 million, putting it on pace for a $62 million three-day weekend and a $73 million total opening. The film’s reviews are just 32% positive, putting it in a tie with On Stranger Tides for worst in the franchise. On the other hand, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore compared to a B plus for the previous installment, so that should help its legs a little. That said, the film cost $230 million to make, so unless it is a monster hit at the international box office, there’s little hope the sequel teased in the end credits will happen.
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May 25th, 2017
It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the best long weekends at the box office all year. However, this year the two new releases are far from the best. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales has the worst reviews in the franchise and its domestic box office will likely be the same. Sadly, Baywatch’s reviews are even worse. That said, they should still finish one-two over the weekend, while Alien: Covenant and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be in a race for third place. It likely won’t be close. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass opened one-two during the weekend with results that are similar to what Dead Men Tell No Tales / Baywatch are expected to make. I don’t know if 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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May 1st, 2017
April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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September 12th, 2014
There's a large number of limited releases, including a few that are earning good reviews and strong buzz. One of these is The Drop, but it is opening in too many theaters and I think that will hurt it at the box office. If I were to guess, The Skeleton Twins will be the biggest hit on this week's list.
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November 13th, 2013
On Tuesday we launched The Numbers Bankability Index, a new service to help assess the value that different people bring to the industry, from actors and actresses to directors, screenwriters, producers, and anyone else involved in the creative process of making a movie. In this article, I'll look more deeply into how the Index is compiled, and how we use the tools behind it to analyze questions about people in movies.
If you haven't already, now's a good time to look at our announcement video, and the November Edition of the Worldwide Bankability Index.
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September 22nd, 2013
Top-grossing people in technical roles
Last week I unveiled our new People Records section and talked about some of top performers across different types of acting, from the blockbusting superstars to the unsung heroes, to the cameo kings and queens. We've added some more charts to the record section this week, this time covering technical roles, and once more there's a lot of data to be mined.
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July 1st, 2013
For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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