This graph shows John C. Reilly’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
As the Christmas holiday approaches, there are plenty of options for movie-goers. The only question is what to watch? Spider-Man: No Way Home opened last Friday and took nearly everyone by surprise as it posted an opening domestic weekend of $260 million, placing itself between 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War as the second-biggest opening of all time. The film is currently showing in 4,336 locations, which makes it the 30th-widest opening of all time, just behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. Spider-Man: No Way Home might not be challenged at the box office, but there are still a wide array of films for every interest.
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Tomorrow is Christmas Day, which is a surprisingly good day to release a movie, and two new films are hoping to take advantage of this. Holmes and Watson is by far the bigger of the two releases, but despite the comedic talent in the movie, its reviews are, well, practically non-existent. There’s only one review and it is negative. Not that long ago, I thought the film would still open with $10 million for the day, as Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly do have box office drawing power. However, the lack of reviews hurts and the buzz isn’t loud enough to compensate. I think $8 million is more likely.
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There is not a lot of time for Oscar contenders to come out in theaters and usually this time of year there are a few Oscar-bait films getting last minute runs. This is sort of true this year. There are three films coming out till the end of the year that have been earning Awards Season buzz, but none of them are earning award-worthy reviews. Besides these three films, there are almost no limited releases. Even if you include all of next week, there are only eight films opening this week in total.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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Laurel & Hardy, one of the world’s great comedy teams, set out on a variety hall tour of Britain in 1953. Diminished by age and with their golden era as the kings of Hollywood comedy now behind them, they face an uncertain future. As the charm and beauty of their performances shines through, they re-connect with their adoring fans. The tour becomes a hit, but Stan & Ollie can’t quite shake the specter of Laurel and Hardy’s past; the long-buried ghosts, coupled with Oliver’s failing health, start to threaten their precious partnership. A portrait of the most tender and poignant of creative marriages, they are aware that they may be approaching their swan song, trying to rediscover just how much they mean to each other.
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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It is not a particularly busy week for limited releases, as there are only nine films on the main list. However, several of them could do very well at the box office. Of these, I’m the most bullish about Colette and The Sisters Brothers, but there are two documentaries, Love, Gilda and Nothing Like a Dame, that could also open in the $10,000 club. All four could earn some Awards Season glory.
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Sing was the last big animated film released in 2016 and it was a good year for animated films. Both Zootopia and Finding Dory earned stunnign reviews and more than $1 billion worldwide. Sing couldn’t compete with those box office numbers, but is it at least close in terms of quality?
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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When Marnie Was There is the latest Studio Ghibli released through GKIDS. It did very well in limited release, at least compared to most animated films, but it was still not seen by most. Now it is coming out on Blu-ray / DVD. Is it worth checking out for those missed it the first time? Is it worth picking up for fans of the studio?
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Life After Beth opened with strong buzz, especially for a limited release, but the reviews were mixed and it struggled to find an audience in theaters. It also debuted on Video on Demand, so that didn't help its box office numbers. Now that it is out on the home market, is it worth a look? And is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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Bears is the latest nature documentary from DisneyNature. Nearly every year, Disney releases one of these films on Earth Day and they are usually the biggest documentary of the year. They are likely also one of the most expensive documentaries of the year. How does this one live up to its predecessors? Does it leave me excited for Monkey Kingdom?
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March was stronger than expected when compared to 2013 with four films earning $100 million or more, led by Divergent. (Not all of them have gotten there yet, but they are certain to reach that milestone before they are done their box office runs.) It wasn't a blow-out victory, on the other hand, as a few weekends the ticket sales were lower in 2014 than they were during the same weekend in 2013. April looks really strong with Captain America: The Winter Soldier leading the way. This film should top $200 million over the weekend, while it isn't the only film that should crack the century mark, as Rio 2 is also on track for $100 million. This is great news, as no film last April reached $100 million. Granted, 42 came close and Oblivion wasn't far behind, but The Winter Soldier should earn more than those two films earned combined giving 2014 a comfortable lead over 2013 over the full month.
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Chicago came out in 2002 and was a surprise hit earning more than $300 million worldwide on a $30 million production budget. It was a surprise hit, in part because movie musicals had not been able to find an audience like that in a long, long time. Musicals have been around for as long as movies have had sound. The first film with spoken dialogue, The Jazz Singer, was also the first movie musical. But the heyday of movie musicals ended about forty years before Chicago hit theaters. Unfortunately for a lot of studios, Chicago wasn't able to reinvigorate the movie musical genre. Has the decline in the genre meant Chicago hasn't aged well? Or have more recent musicals failed to match it at the box office, because they have also failed to match its quality?
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Wreck-It Ralph was one of three Disney animated films that earned Oscar nominations this year. It was considered by many to be the favorite to win; however, it lost out to fellow Disney creation, Brave. I'm a huge video game nerd and I've been playing video games since the Commodore 64 days. MULE, Archon, Impossible Mission, Epyx Summer Games franchise, Defender of the Crown. So many awesome old school games. I was really looking forward to seeing this movie, but I'm a little worried my expectations have grown too high. Is that the case?
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October was pretty good with a few films really crushing expectations, which made up for the few duds that opened at the end. 2012 gained about $100 million over 2011 during the month of October. We really needed this success and hopefully November will continue this push forward. However, November is a bit of a weird month. There are five weekends, but only eight true wide releases, half of which open on the Thanksgiving long weekend, leaving the other four weeks with just one true wide release each. There are a couple others opening in the semi-wide level and another opening in limited release with a planned wide release, but even so, it is not a busy month. That said, it is a case of quality over quantity. There are four films that are pretty much guaranteed to reach $100 million, one of which should reach $300 million. By comparison, last November only produced one $100 million film. Granted, that film was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, which made nearly $300 million, which is a huge number no matter how you look at it. But this year, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 should top that number and with the other $100 million movies pulling in more than $400 million combined, it should be a very profitable month at the box office.
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