This graph shows Brad Pitt’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
As the Christmas holiday approaches, there are plenty of options for movie-goers as three new high-profile films arrive to the big screen this week. After accruing over $134 million in its opening weekend in North America, Avatar: the Way of Water currently enjoys a six-day domestic total of $183 million, with $426 million from overseas markets, for global earnings so far of $609 million. The film retains its opening-weekend count of 4,202 theaters, once again making it the widest release. While Way of Water should have no problem winning the weekend box office, a bevy of new releases look to provide an assortment of viewing opportunities for nearly every movie taste.
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For the third consecutive week Bullet Train sits atop this weeks theater count list, despite the arrival of Idris Elba’s Beast, as the former comes in this week with 3,781 locations. After 13-days, the assassin film starring Brad Pitt has earned nearly $60 million in North American box office. After two weeks on top, the movie will likely have its hands full with the debut of both Beast and the latest from the popular Dragon Ball Z franchise, with Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opening in about 3,100 theaters according to the latest from Deadline. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero is on a 90-day theatrical window.
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After a solid opening at the box office, Bullet Train is once again the widest release heading into its second week. The film’s freshman effort yielded just over $30 million in its first three days and currently clocks in with a six-day total of $38.9 million. The Brad Pitt action-thriller clings to its opening theater count of 4,357 locations and it is poised to spend another week at the top of the box office charts. While no contenders are expected to knock Bullet Train off of its tracks, a slew of new moderate to wide releases hit cinemas this week as Mack & Rita, Laal Singh Chaddha, Fall, and Emily the Criminal debut, while Bodies Bodies Bodies expands nationwide.
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Bullet Train will fall fractionally below our Friday-morning prediction, but is still on course for a $30-million opening weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday-morning projection. The result is notably higher than our model’s core prediction of $21.7 million, driven perhaps by the star power of Brad Pitt and director David Leitch, but maybe also because it falls more into the raw action category than the tentpole movies that have been inhabiting theaters over the past few months.
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Two new wide releases hit theaters this weekend, each looking to find what might be described as a “big niche” audience. Bullet Train is looking to draw in fans of high-speed action, while Easter Sunday is the kind of family comedy that we’ve hardly seen in the last couple of years. With this Summer’s blockbusters beginning to play out, both of the new entrants could find a decent crowd, although Bullet Train will end up topping the chart and has already booked $4.6 million from Thursday previews.
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Like last week, two new wide releases grace movie theaters across North America this weekend in the form of the violent action-comedy Bullet Train, and holiday comedy, Easter Sunday. Opening in 4,317 theaters, Bullet Train is directed by David Leitch and contains a large ensemble cast, led by Brad Pitt as an experienced but unlucky assassin named “Ladybug”. Co-starring with Pitt is Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, and Andrew Koji among others. The Japanese-set film which is based on Kōtarō Isaka’s dark novel “MariaBeetle” will be available on both traditional and IMAX screens. Easter Sunday, which will debut in 3,175 locations, stars Jo Koy as a man who returns home for an Easter celebration with his riotous, bickering, eating, drinking, laughing, loving family.
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An animated feature is back as the widest release as this week sees the arrival of DC League of Super Pets. Debuting in 4,314 locations, the latest from Warner Bros. features an all-star voice cast, headlined by the renowned comedic duo of Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart. The film follows Krypto (voiced by Johnson), who after his owner, Superman, is kidnapped must convince a rag-tag shelter pack—Ace the hound, PB the potbellied pig, Merton the turtle and Chip the squirrel—to master their own newfound powers and help him rescue the superheroes. DC League of Super-Pets will also be available to stream on HBO Max 45 days after its theatrical release.
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The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat.
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1917 starts out as the hot favorite to take the most awards as we go into Oscar evening. 63% of contestants in our Predict the Academy Awards contest picked it for the Best Picture award, and it is favorite in five other categories, including directing and cinematography. No other film is favored in more than two categories, and readers are showing a high level of confidence in a lot of winners.
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Our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our schedule with Best Supporting Actor. This might be the least competitive category we talk about this year.
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The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and we have some interesting developments for the rest of Awards Season. 1917 wasn’t considered a front-runner with five films earning more nominations. However, after this result, it might be the front-runner to become the big winner on Oscar night.
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The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations this week and we are starting to see some patterns with similar names appearing over and over again. This time Bombshell led the way, earning four nominations, but four other films earned two or more nominations.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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Astronaut Roy McBride travels to the outer edges of the solar system to find his missing father and unravel a mystery that threatens the survival of our planet. His journey will uncover secrets that challenge the nature of human existence and our place in the cosmos.
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1969 Los Angeles, where everything is changing, as TV star Rick Dalton and his longtime stunt double Cliff Booth make their way around an industry they hardly recognize anymore.
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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It is both a great week for limited releases and a terrible one. While there are a number of fantastic films, like Under the Shadow for example, there are very few that have a legitimate shot at box office success. The usual reason for this is Video on Demand. Voyage of Time will likely be the biggest hit on this week’s list, but as an IMAX film, it will likely be in theaters for years.
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November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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Sony are predicting a decline of just 50% for Spectre in its second weekend in theaters, putting James Bond’s latest incarnation on track for a final domestic box office in the neighborhood of $200 million. While well short of Skyfall’s $304 million, it welcome news for a film that’s probably right on the bubble as far as profitability is concerned.
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October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the finalHunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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After smashing the January weekend record last weekend, American Sniper is enjoying a very solid second-weekend hold. So solid, in fact, that it will also have the third-best January weekend. If it drops less than 35% next weekend, it will share with Avatar the records for the top six January weekends, each movie having topped $42 million three times. Sniper’s expected weekend this time around is $64.365m, according to Warner Bros. Sunday morning projection.
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The weekend box office was a little softer than expected, with Fury earning first place, but with much less than some were expecting. I was a little more conservative and I was still off by close to $10 million. The rest of the top five, on the whole, were also not quite as strong as expected, so the overall box office fell 11% from last weekend. However, it was 26% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the much more important figure. 2014 is still behind 2013 by more than $300 million, or 3.6%, at $8.05 billion to $8.36 billion, but if we can close the gap a little bit each week, we can at least make it a respectable race in the end.
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Fury will top the box office chart this weekend with a solid, but unspectacular, $23.5 million, according to Sony’s Sunday morning estimate. Pre-weekend projections had the film closer to $30 million, and with an $80 million price tag, and Brad Pitt starring, the film is really underperforming at this point. By way of comparison, Gone Girl opened with $37.5 million three weeks ago. Fury will need really good legs, or a really strong performance overseas, to post a profit.
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Three wide releases are trying to fight for box office dollars, including Fury, which could be the biggest hit of the month. Its reviews are excellent and the buzz is strong enough that is should have no trouble earning first place. The Book of Life is a family friendly animated horror film opening near Halloween. That should be a combination that spells box office success, but while the reviews are strong, the buzz is not as loud as I would like. Finally, there's The Best of Me, the latest from Nicholas Sparks, but I think the shine has come off his career. Its early reviews are terrible, which isn't surprising. The buzz is rather quiet, which is a little more surprising. This weekend last year, Gravity completed the hat-trick earning just over $30 million. I think Fury will top that. The best new release last year was Carrie, which earned just over $16 million earning third place in the process. It looks like there are a couple of films that will earn a similar amount this year. Additionally, the depth again appears to be better than last year, so 2014 should find itself on top of the chart, again. This is a surprise, as at the beginning of the month, it looked like 2014 would be in an extended slump by this point.
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September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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Disney’s $180 million gamble on Maleficent looks to have paid off this weekend, with Angelina Jolie’s starring role carrying the film to a $70 million opening weekend, in spite of middling reviews. The film is as much a triumph for Jolie as World War Z was for husband Brad Pitt. They truly are Hollywood’s power couple.
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Box office powerhouse Frozen has propelled head of Disney Animation (and Pixar) John Lasseter into 11th place in The Numbers Bankability Index for February. The Index measures the value people generate in the industry, and Lasseter certainly deserves his place towards the top of the chart, having built Pixar into an animation powerhouse, and rebuilt Disney's in-house animation studio so effectively that it's close to knocking Pixar off its perch as the industry leader.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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World War Z was one of the most anticipated films of the summer, as it was based on a popular book and starred Brad Pitt, one of the biggest movie stars around. However, there were hints of problems, including extensive reshoots. In the end, it cost $190 million to make and while it pulled in more than $500 million worldwide, it will likely need a little help on the home market to break even. Will it break even on the home market? Or is it a flawed execution to a really good idea?
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It's kind of a bad week for screeners, as there are four or so that either didn't arrive on time, or still are not here. This includes the biggest release of the week, World War Z, as well as a number of other releases I'm really looking forward to (Behind the Candelabra, Nashville: The Complete First Season, Sofia the First: Ready to Be a Princess, etc.). World War Z should lead the charts, both on DVD and on Blu-ray, but I'm not sure if I will agree with the pros or the cons on this one. Fortunately, some screeners did arrive, including the final season of Leverage. While I'm not happy this is the final season of the show, I'm very happy with the quality level for Season Five and it is the Pick of the Week.
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May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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It was a close race for top spot as The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 just held off Skyfall by less than $1 million. Unfortunately, the best new release, Killing Them Softly, failed to match low expectations, while The Collection barely managed a spot in the top ten. The overall box office fell 45% to $114 million. However, as sharp as that decline was, it was still 41% higher than the same weekend last year and December begins with 2012 ahead of 2011 by 5.9% at $9.91 billion to $9.36 billion.
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The weekend after Thanksgiving is not known for its box office prowess, and this year is proving no different. Most films in the top 10 are down around 50% from last weekend, and the new wide releases are both falling short of their respective distributor's hopes. Killing Them Softly is headed for a $7 million debut, according to Weinstein, which is Brad Pitt's worst wide opening since Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas back in 2003, and worst live action wide release since 1994's The Favor. Meanwhile, LD Distribution is projecting $3.4 million for The Collection in 1,403 theaters, which is less of a surprise, but still a disappointment. With those two misfires, the top of the chart is once more populated by Breaking Dawn, Part 2 and Skyfall, which are essentially neck and neck at this point, with Twilight topping $250 million domestically this weekend and Bond set to reach that landmark in the next few days.
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October was pretty good with a few films really crushing expectations, which made up for the few duds that opened at the end. 2012 gained about $100 million over 2011 during the month of October. We really needed this success and hopefully November will continue this push forward. However, November is a bit of a weird month. There are five weekends, but only eight true wide releases, half of which open on the Thanksgiving long weekend, leaving the other four weeks with just one true wide release each. There are a couple others opening in the semi-wide level and another opening in limited release with a planned wide release, but even so, it is not a busy month. That said, it is a case of quality over quantity. There are four films that are pretty much guaranteed to reach $100 million, one of which should reach $300 million. By comparison, last November only produced one $100 million film. Granted, that film was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, which made nearly $300 million, which is a huge number no matter how you look at it. But this year, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 should top that number and with the other $100 million movies pulling in more than $400 million combined, it should be a very profitable month at the box office.
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