Brett McGurk gave a deceptively simple answer when the Times of Israel asked him what the lessons of Oct. 7, 2023 and the ensuing conflict were.
One is tempted to say that that’s an obvious statement, but folks keep starting wars with Israel anyway, and will continue to do so. And that is why there is something more profound behind McGurk’s statement: You can learn a lot about an entity by examining why it has started a war with Israel.
McGurk’s plain meaning was that Israel can be a devastating military opponent. “Ask Sinwar, Nasrallah or Khamenei how they’re doing today compared to October 6,” he added, suggesting that Israel, like the Mounties, always gets its man.
That, however, only works as a deterrent to those who don’t want to lose.
Case in point: Egypt. Israel’s victory in the Six-Day War in 1967 arguably made the case that Egypt should stop going to war with the Jewish state, that Israel had convincingly displayed its permanence. But there was no doubt after the Yom Kippur War of 1973. After all, that was the war in which Egypt, not Israel, had the element of surprise. And yet afterwards Egypt still had to negotiate to get its land back.
Egypt’s decision to bow out of the “destroy Israel or die trying” party meant Syria would be at a steep disadvantage if it ever decided to invade Israel again in the future. So even though there wasn’t a peace deal between Israel and Syria (as there was between Israel and Egypt), Damascus and Jerusalem have since avoided all-out war. That doesn’t mean the now-deposed Assad family had accepted Israel’s legitimacy. It means the Assads knew their window of opportunity to defeat Israel in war had long gone by.
Jordan was never all that enthusiastic about fighting Israel after the 1948 War of Independence, so the Hashemite Kingdom arguably didn’t even need to learn its lesson firsthand. Amman has found it quite easy to abide by the principle of “don’t start a war with Israel.”
Lebanon is a basket case but its only elements that start wars with Israel answer to Iran. Tehran’s proxy, Hezbollah, knows you don’t start a war with Israel unless you’re prepared to lose. But Hezbollah isn’t concerned about what happens to Lebanon, because it is an agent of Iran.