I love a good in-depth analysis, and this is so well thought out and articulated. I have had many of the same thoughts (and even expressed some of them in long arse rambles of my own). Gonna don my Optimistic Akubra and add a few extra thoughts.
One thing that OP says that I agree with and haven't seen too many people say is that we were played in the interviews. Well, not so much played, more that we weren't thinking long term - we figured they were talking about what we were going to see in the immediate upcoming episodes rather than over the season as a whole. When they talked about having Buck and Tommy as a rom com, and overcoming hurdles, etc, I think we were all expecting those things to happen much sooner. And when 8x06 aired, I think many of us saw the Abby connection and assumed that was the hurdle and were shattered when they broke up, thinking that Tim and co. had lied to us. This wasn't helped by the fact that we were given an "exit interview" for Lou (so much for THAT hey?) with other interviews also shedding a more negative outlook on the relationship. But the thing is, those interviews were conducted by blatant buddie journalists - they were going to do anything and everything in their power to write it and twist words to make it look like their "buddie canon" was a possibility by having Lou/Tommy out of the picture.
Because looking back at those interviews about Buck and Tommy from the beginning of the season? When you start looking at the season as a whole, you realise that what we've been seeing is exactly what they said would happen. They've had the (hopefully) temporary break up and miscommunication tropes that are common in rom-coms. They had the hurdle of the break up, and now they need to figure out if their relationship is worth fighting for. They even Let Buck Fuck, except surprise! It was with Tommy, not some random stranger. Hell, even when they said that after the hiatus Buck would find someone new in his life, but they would only be temporary, here we were thinking Buck would be playing the field, but again, surprise! It turned out that someone new was a dog, and Buck STILL wasn't over Tommy!
The Buck and Tommy story has been playing out for this whole season so far and is clearly Buck's major plotline for season 8, so of course they weren't going to spoil anything by saying "oh don't worry, they'll be getting back together." Instead, they've been playing out the "will they, won't they" (again, something that Oliver mentioned in an interview) in the hopes of getting the audience invested and rooting for the two of them to get back together, something that, when you think about it, they would have to do since Lou is only a recurring and they wouldn't be able to spend a lot of time developing their relationship in an ensemble show. Like OP said, it's very possible that at least Oliver and maybe even Lou knew that Tommy would be coming back, and they've done a great job at leaving crumbs without revealing they actually know anything. And the thing is, yeah, we were angry, and yeah, some people stopped watching the show, but boy did what they do work. Because when you look at the fact that 8x11 had the highest ratings past the three-part opener (not bad for an episode that wasn't immediately after the hiatus and is smack bang in the middle of the season) and that every Buck and Tommy related post has the highest amount of engagement on social media, then yeah, they played us and they played us well. They wanted us to care about their relationship and for the most part I'd say they succeeded (I mean, buddies are never going to be happy, but what do you do).
Well played show. Well played.