Russia's poor military performance in Ukraine will have a significant impact on Vladimir Putin's popularity as president, according to Hanna Smith, Research Director of the Helsinki-based Hybrid Centre of Excellence (CoE).
"Wars like these leave a stain, which can undermine leadership," Smith said, citing historical examples, during an appearance on Yle TV1's A-Talk current affairs programme on Thursday evening.
Smith added that it will be very difficult for Putin to change the impression that the war in Ukraine has not gone to plan.
"Putin's countdown has begun," she said, noting that Russian losses in the war are accumulating and the invasion of Ukraine has had a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.
"Getting back to the tough guy image that made Putin so popular is a long way off. Perhaps Putin, in his seventies, is no longer even capable of it," Smith said.
A counter-offensive launched by Ukraine in the north-eastern Kharkiv province on 5 September led to Ukrainian forces taking almost the entire area within a matter of days.
Speaking on Yle's A-Studio programme on Monday evening, Sinikukka Saari of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) said Ukraine now had the momentum in the war following the success in Kharkiv.
"The fact that Putin has remained silent really shows that the momentum is now with Ukraine. It would be worthwhile to put pressure on Russia in different ways now, so that there would be more of these cracks," Saari said.
News agency Reuters reported on Thursday that Ukrainian forces had repelled three Russian attacks north of the city of Donetsk, although the reports were not independently verified.
On Thursday evening's A-Talk, Smith stated that Putin has already failed in the war's strategic objective, which was to quickly overrun Ukraine and depose its government. Even if Ukraine were to continue to suffer losses in the war, Smith noted that the overall situation is not likely to change — with potential knock-on effects for the Russian leader.
"It could happen out of nowhere and very quickly, or it can take some years. But we won't see Putin in 2036," Smith said.