”If a third of the labour force stays home from work, this translates into production losses of around one billion euros,” says Pasi Sorjonen, Head of the Forecasting Group at the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA).
The most extreme predictions at the moment are that a third of the population will catch the bug. This entails special arrangements at workplaces to ensure that basic functions are kept up.
Other areas of economic activity are also expected to suffer. A widespread epidemic would for example take a heavy toll on the consumption of goods and services. With fevers running high, spending is likely to take a backseat and more people will automatically save their money.
Sorjonen, however, puts a positive spin on doomsday-like scenarios as officials brace for a large-scale outbreak.
”Swine flu is not an epidemic of catastrophic proportions. As long as people regain their health and nobody dies, we’ll be just fine,” says Sorjonen.